re: Conference Tournament Week - (Bid Stealer Tracker)

From D1's projections this morning:

Last Four In: Kansas State, James Madison, Georgia Tech, California
First Four Out: Troy, Northeastern, Coastal Carolina, Xavier

I haven’t gotten to really look at it either because of work. Northeastern should be a lock IMO a bad tournament doesn’t take away from the regular season they had.

Agreed... want no part of a Tallahassee Regional/Super

Now that LSU has nothing to worry about as far as NCAAt bid stealers go, maybe we can start talking about the hot topic this week in this thread.

To the dreamers who believe LSU can potentially host a regional, LSU needs UK to win today so they get the opportunity to knock off RPI #1 UK tomorrow in the semis. Do that and win the SECt and then we can talk about the possibility of committee ignoring LSU’s 17 conference losses.

Still have plenty of teams to root against in this thread next couple days though if we’re going to consider that possibility:

•East Carolina win Friday
•Wake Forest win Friday against UNC
•UCSB clinch series and Big West auto-bid Friday
•Duke off today
•Vanderbilt plays UT on Saturday
•Mississippi State eliminated *still likely host over LSU since finished 4 games ahead of us and won H2H
•Dallas Baptist off today
•San Diego play Portland
•Southern Miss off today
•Louisiana Tech lost Friday *need to go 3-0 now to win CUSA tourney otherwise LSU could jump them
•Arizona advances to championship on Saturday
•Oregon St eliminated *honestly a long shot LSU would be given a host bid over them even if we did go 2-0 this weekend but leaving them on here since they aren’t a lock to host

those are the borderline 1 seeds and 2 seeds that are likely ahead of LSU right now given their full resumes if they were to win their conference tournaments too

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Appreciate the breakdown, and what wrong with Dreaming?!?!?

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nothing. I’ve given up the logical fight telling people we aren’t going to host but love analytics so going to do the breakdown anyway

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That’s a lot of teams to jump over for the last 2-3 host spots.

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yes definitely. Figured by laying it out like that and showing all the 1-seeds that aren’t host locks and all the 2-seeds ahead of us some would see why it’s practically impossible for us to host.

Even if some of those teams don’t win their tournaments - like in the case of Oregon St who is already eliminated - it’s still highly unlikely we would jump them. In order to host LSU would need all but maybe 1 of those teams to lose their conference tournaments.

At this point, the 1-seeds are going to be coming from the top 20 in the RPI. The Top 20 teams are locks for a 1 or 2-seed except maybe Vandy. That leave 13 2-seeds up for grabs. The 19 teams below are the contenders based on some combination of RPI, conference record, and overall record.

LSU: 39-20 (13-17) RPI: 22
Vandy: 38-20 (13-17) RPI: 18
S Carolina: 35-22 (13-17) RPI: 21
Alabama: 33-22 (13-17) RPI: 23
DBU: 41-13 (17-7) RPI: 24
UC-Irvine: 42-11 (21-7) RPI: 25
San Diego: 38-13 (20-4) RPI: 26
La Tech: 42-15 (18-6) RPI: 27
USM: 39-18 (20-10) RPI: 29
Arizona: 34-21 (20-10) RPI: 30
Nebraska: 35-20 (16-8) RPI: 31
W Virginia: 33-22 (19-11) RPI: 37
ULL: 40-18 (23-7) RPI: 38
Illinois: 34-18 (18-6) RPI: 40
Charleston: 40-12 (21-5) RPI: 41
UConn: 32-23 (17-4) RPI: 42
UNCW: 37-19 (20-7) RPI: 44
Texas: 35-22 (20-10) RPI: 46
Oregon: 37–18 (19-11) RPI: 50

Texas and Oregon probably played their way out of a 2-seed this weekend, but they are still possibilities if the committee leans heavily into their conference records. The SEC teams have the worst conference records, but the best RPIs and the most Q1 wins.

- LSU has the most Q1/2 wins on this list with 21. USM and WVU are next with 18.
- LSU is the only one with more Q1/2 wins than total losses (21-20). USM has 18 each and DBU 13 each.
- UC-Irvine has the best Q1/2 record at 10-3 but has 8 Q3/4 losses.
- LSU is tied with several others for the fewest Q3/4 losses with 2.

Louisville went 0-2 which should end their season.

I will be interested to see if Georgia Tech gets in. Both those team came in on the bubble and both went 0-2

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Louisville went 0-2 which should end their season. I will be interested to see if Georgia Tech gets in. Both those team came in on the bubble and both went 0-2

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Xavier’s loss to Georgetown to finish 1-2 in the Big East tournament probably puts them out as well. They still have a good RPI at #38, but they finished 30-27 and 4th in conference. I don’t see the Big East getting 3 bids.

Troy is down 10-3 in the 9th, which should put the final nail in their coffin as well. As to Georgia Tech, I think they should be out already, but I suspect another stolen bid will do them in.