re: CFP Playoff Updates

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Unfortunately, I feel like chaos is coming.

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To some degree maybe, but hopefully not enough to let Bama backdoor their way in.

*Either Ohio State or Minnesota will have at least one loss.
*Either Baylor will have a loss or OU will get loss #2 this weekend (which will knock OU out even if they win the Big XII)
*Auburn losing to UGA would further weaken Bama's SOS.
*Either Oregon or Utah will get loss #2 in the PAC XII championship game.

Even if Bama comes in at #4 in the CFP poll, they can still be passed by a conference champ.

Here's the formula I think the committee will follow:

1st off, conference pecking order
1 SEC
2 Big 10
3 ACC* - we're including Clemson in this eval
4 Big 12
5 Pac 12

Record- undefeated team gets in, and seeded in order of conference.
Meaning, Alabama was going to be the #1 seed if they won out. Georgia was, if they did. LSU will be, if they do.
Ohio State will be the #2 if they win out, and LSU does too. Minnesota, I think, might inherit that, although it was intended for Penn State to take over if need be.
Clemson will be in, and ranked #3 if LSU and Ohio State remain undefeated.

Oklahoma would have been 4, I think Baylor would be 4 if they can run out.

If SEC, Big 10, Clemson and Oklahoma were to run out, Pac 12 would be left in the cold no matter what.

Now, 1 loss; that changes a lot.
SEC
Big 10
Pac 12
Big 12
ACC

SEC is a war zone, a 1 loss team isn't a shocker. Bama is pinning their hopes on that.
Big 10 is turning out like the SEC, but at a slightly lower level of competition. Teams like Penn State, Michigan and Wisconsin are dangerous for anyone.

Pac 12 jumps to 3rd here, because it's increasingly looking like they will get 2 11-1 teams in their championship. That's a solid matchup, no matter how you view the overall conference.

Big 12 takes a hit, because the championship is going to be a rematch game no matter what, and can only dilute conference strength. They need to add more (and legit) teams to balance that conference.

ACC- that conference sucks, with Clemson as the gorilla. If somebody can take Clemson down, they're going behind any other 1 loss team.

Modifiers- teams could, and should, get bumps for winning conference and division. Not enough to beat a team with a better record, but enough to beat a team with the same record. You should be out of contention without that, unless you still have a better record.

Meaning: Alabama at 11-1, should be behind all undefeated champs, and all 1 loss champs.
Penn State, had they beat Minnesota but lost to Ohio St (and thus go 11-1 like Alabama), probably behind Alabama in that call.
1 loss teams from conference tttle games- LSU, Ohio State fit into this somewhere, if they lose only in conference games.

Wildcard- Alabama is currently a national treasure, and there is and will be a lot of politicking.

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Alabama is currently a national treasure

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In the eyes of the media, yes, but not to most fans of college football. I do think Bama fatigue is a real thing. I think that the average fan who has no stake in the game would like to see some fresh faces in the playoffs...LSU, Minnesota, Oregon (even though they were in once), maybe Baylor.

There's only so much you can take of pom pom-shaking, houndstooth-wearing, hicks.

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I would say they absolutely control their own destiny

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Probably, but I don't think they are as rock solid as the first three. People will make an argument for other teams over them if they run the table. That same argument wouldn't be able to be made at all against OSU, LSU and Clemson. Clemson probably belongs in the second group, but they aren't because they are Clemson.

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what is SOR?

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Strength of Record

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1st off, conference pecking order
1 SEC
2 Big 10
3 ACC* - we're including Clemson in this eval
4 Big 12
5 Pac 12

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I'm not going to be the least bit shocked if you see Ohio State flip flop back with LSU at some point. If all favorites win out, I think it ends up....

1- OSU
2- LSU
3- Clemson
4- Alabama

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Then the current system needs to be blown up. The committee would be sending the message that what you do on the field doesn't matter, and that playing in and winning a conference championship game basically means nothing as well

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If LSU would have lost to Bama would you be saying the same thing?

Whether you like it or not, Bama is more than likely a better team than Oregon and Oklahoma. The committees job is to put the four best teams in the playoffs, not four conference champions. With a one loss Pac 12 champ, Oregon, and one loss Big 12 champ, Oklahoma, you are still leaving out a conference champ.

Ok... Let's just assume that the final spot comes down to Bama and Oregon.

SOS will be pretty close.
SOR will also be pretty close.
- either team could have a slight edge either way.

Bama's loss - playoff team LSU
Oregon's loss - Auburn
- Advantage Bama

Bama's best wins - Auburn, aTm
Oregon's best wins - Utah, Wazu, Washington
- Slight advantage to Oregon here (depending on if Auburn beats Georgia or not. Neither has many wins against teams who will finish in the top 25).

- Advantage Oregon in with a Pac 12 title win.
- Advantage Bama with win over common opponent.
- Huge advantage Bama with eye test.


I hate Bama. I don't want Bama backing into the playoffs, while losing the west. But to sit here and act like it would be some highway robbery and they would have absolutely no case against Oregon is just wrong.

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Other than be Alabama, what have they done to prove they're one of the top 4 teams in the country?

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That's it, but if it's enough for the committee than that's all the matters.

I'll pose this question. Let's say that Minnesota and Baylor run the table and end up undefeated. Both of those teams will have wins that will make Clemson's best wins look like dog shite. Do you think the committee would leave an undefeated Clemson out? I don't.