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Started By
Message
re: Calling a run on first down, you’re already screwed
Posted on 1/12/19 at 8:14 am to dittohead
Posted on 1/12/19 at 8:14 am to dittohead
quote:
I bet LSU has called more runs on first down than anyone in college football.
You could at least give yourself an out by saying besides Army, Navy, and Georgia Tech
1
Posted on 1/12/19 at 8:17 am to Ace Midnight
quote:
to suggest that calling a run on first down... is always bad is football ignorance.
Yes. Calling plays predictably is bad, but in general I don’t think E is guilty of that.
This post was edited on 1/12/19 at 8:23 am
Posted on 1/12/19 at 8:18 am to jbrau22
quote:
Too bad we called a pass play on all but two first half first down plays vs Bama....but u know...facts and stuff
You’re wasting your time. Once some idiots get something going on the rant it is unstoppable. Did you know Eric Reid takes bad angles, and Tyrann Mathieu is a liability in coverage?
Posted on 1/12/19 at 8:29 am to dittohead
You link a article that shows pass pass pass as the worst sequence
Posted on 1/12/19 at 8:37 am to dittohead
In the 2 games Ensminger has called against Bama we’ve started the game with a pass.
Posted on 1/12/19 at 8:40 am to dittohead
Not a bad analysis, but I think it could have been even stronger had it not relied solely on 3-play sequences. It should have incorporated the results of each first down sequence even if it gained another first down on the first or second play.
I would argue that there are far more 2- play sequences and single plays that result in first downs that incorporated passing plays on first or second down than rush-rush sequences would.
EDIT: I went at looked at Seattle’s stats. On first downs this season they rushed for first downs 13% of the time. First down passes resulted in first downs 30% of the time.
I would argue that there are far more 2- play sequences and single plays that result in first downs that incorporated passing plays on first or second down than rush-rush sequences would.
EDIT: I went at looked at Seattle’s stats. On first downs this season they rushed for first downs 13% of the time. First down passes resulted in first downs 30% of the time.
This post was edited on 1/12/19 at 9:05 am
Posted on 1/12/19 at 8:46 am to tigerfoot
If you remove all first down plays that result in first downs and all 2-play sequences that result in first downs as this analysis does, then the resulting pass-pass-pass sequences are all probably 3rd-and-longs. It ensures 1–if not both—of the evaluated plays were unsuccessful.
Posted on 1/12/19 at 8:47 am to dittohead
quote:
I bet LSU has called more runs on first down than anyone in college football. The rush-rush-pass sequence, which LSU’s offensive play-calling seems to be stuck in, has the least amount of success in the NFL. This is why we’ve scored 10 points against Alabama last 12 quarters.
I happened to have read that article before signing on to TD this morning. It refers only to the NFL - not college football.
You assume it applies to LSU, but offer no facts to support it. Actually, over the last 3 games,LSU passed on 51% of its plays against Alabama, as opposed to 33% (the rush, rush, pass scenario). And the worst loss was the most recent when LSU passed 58% of its plays. So, looking at the facts, your post is way off base.
I appreciate any posts that attempt to add insight into LSU athletics. Getting the facts straight in support of such posts adds credibility to them.
This post was edited on 1/12/19 at 8:48 am
Posted on 1/12/19 at 8:53 am to dittohead
Navy and Army day hello
Posted on 1/12/19 at 9:03 am to dittohead
quote:
While the precise order in which passes and runs are called may not matter so much — several combinations are roughly equivalent to one another according to success rate — some trends are clear. Passes are more effective when called on early downs, and runs are more effective on third down. Running on first down, while often a mistake, can be salvaged with a pass on second down. And if you’re going to rush on back-to-back plays to open a series, you should do so sparingly because it will leave your team in an obvious passing situation more often than not. Your passing attack — and QB especially — will need to be well above average to consistently convert in those high-leverage spots where all deception is gone and defenders can be confident that they know what’s coming.
Posted on 1/12/19 at 9:04 am to DallasTiger45
quote:
Talent levels for opposing teams vary way more in CFB, so you could argue that in some situations optimizing efficiency is less important than decreasing risk
Excellent point. A run run pass sequence will often work against inferior opponents, and it does seem to decrease risk. However, against opponents who have similar or superior talent, especially in the front seven of the defense, seems to put a team at an offensive disadvantage.
I’m concerned that LSU’s propensity for run run pass in games against inferior opponents gets them in had habits and too reliant on the run in games against opponents with similar talent. I could be wrong, Im not a coach, I’m just a fan.
Posted on 1/12/19 at 9:08 am to geauxtigers33
quote:
You could at least give yourself an out by saying besides Army, Navy, and Georgia Tech
They play college football? Seriously though, throw out the triple option teams, and see where they stand.
Posted on 1/12/19 at 9:08 am to Ace Midnight
quote:
but to suggest that calling a run on first down (if you're a team built to run across from a favorable defensive alignment) is always bad is football ignorance.
Where parity exists running on first down is essentially a throw away down. That’s what the stats say.
Posted on 1/12/19 at 9:10 am to dittohead
quote:
Excellent point. A run run pass sequence will often work against inferior opponents, and it does seem to decrease risk. However, against opponents who have similar or superior talent, especially in the front seven of the defense, seems to put a team at an offensive disadvantage.
I’m concerned that LSU’s propensity for run run pass in games against inferior opponents gets them in had habits and too reliant on the run in games against opponents with similar talent.
I agree with this.
Posted on 1/12/19 at 9:14 am to GumboPot
Not true. Parity exists in the NFL, where the linked analysis was conducted.
The stats say RRP might be less successful, but it’s not a throw away. RRR is also successful. The article basically says don’t be predictable.
The stats say RRP might be less successful, but it’s not a throw away. RRR is also successful. The article basically says don’t be predictable.
This post was edited on 1/12/19 at 9:16 am
Posted on 1/12/19 at 9:14 am to The LGBM
quote:
Actually, over the last 3 games,LSU passed on 51% of its plays against Alabama, as opposed to 33% (the rush, rush, pass scenario).
That’s easy to explain. LSU was behind for most of the games. Teams playing from behind need to throw the ball.
Posted on 1/12/19 at 9:27 am to dittohead
quote:
bet LSU has called more runs on first down than anyone in college football.
You would be wrong and LSU threw more on first down this year than in years passed
Posted on 1/12/19 at 9:33 am to MrKnowItAll
pass-pass-pass-pass-first down is a better option. there are four downs, use them all rather than rolling over and quitting every time you get the ball.
Posted on 1/12/19 at 9:34 am to GumboPot
quote:
Where parity exists running on first down is essentially a throw away down.
You must run to disrupt zone coverage. You must run to establish a credible RPO. You must run in short yardage situations, at least a good percentage of the time.
So, why is running on first down "throw away"? If you are running on first down and getting consistently 3 yards or less? Change your running plays and certainly find other ways to use ball control passing.
But, passing on first down, always, is just as limiting and predictable as running on first down.
Posted on 1/12/19 at 10:04 am to dittohead
Seems to me we've done way more first down passing than in the past.
After several games, in the midst of my complaints about E, I've thrown in a kudos or two about 1st down passing.
I don't have that much of a problem with 1st down rushes. I hate 2nd down runs in the 1st down gets less than 5. It is a double whammy of predictability and getting behind chains.
ETA: 1st down pass %'s (vs. rush and penalty)
2018- 45%
2017- 42%
2016- 43%
2015- 35%
2014- 32%
2013- 51%
2012- 42%
2011- 36%
You can see the change when E took over in 2016 interim. Of course Mett was the exception.
To me the 'context' that matters the most regarding rush vs pass on 1st down is:
Rush on First Down- if you are going to RRR, are you running into areas/zones to which the defense has adjusted to.
Pass on First Down- what kind of pass? what/who are you attacking? Are you even attacking? Are they long handoffs or forever 12 yd routes outside the hashes. It's first down, if you are going to pass it should NOT be for a certain yardage, it should be to attack a coverage/scheme to setup the next down's or series play(s). The type/design of pass, on 1st downs, is much more important than just being a pass.
For example, in the past, when we did pass on first downs how many times did we run outs or curls against zone and then when in man-press we tried bubble screen. 1st down was for making them change- we made them look like they had ESP.
After several games, in the midst of my complaints about E, I've thrown in a kudos or two about 1st down passing.
I don't have that much of a problem with 1st down rushes. I hate 2nd down runs in the 1st down gets less than 5. It is a double whammy of predictability and getting behind chains.
ETA: 1st down pass %'s (vs. rush and penalty)
2018- 45%
2017- 42%
2016- 43%
2015- 35%
2014- 32%
2013- 51%
2012- 42%
2011- 36%
You can see the change when E took over in 2016 interim. Of course Mett was the exception.
To me the 'context' that matters the most regarding rush vs pass on 1st down is:
Rush on First Down- if you are going to RRR, are you running into areas/zones to which the defense has adjusted to.
Pass on First Down- what kind of pass? what/who are you attacking? Are you even attacking? Are they long handoffs or forever 12 yd routes outside the hashes. It's first down, if you are going to pass it should NOT be for a certain yardage, it should be to attack a coverage/scheme to setup the next down's or series play(s). The type/design of pass, on 1st downs, is much more important than just being a pass.
For example, in the past, when we did pass on first downs how many times did we run outs or curls against zone and then when in man-press we tried bubble screen. 1st down was for making them change- we made them look like they had ESP.
This post was edited on 1/12/19 at 10:17 am
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