Tristan Leigh - NOT buying the OU smoke (long)

After listening to Tristan Leigh’s OTB interview with Jordy & T-Bob this summer, I’ve been following his recruitment as close as I possible can. He’s the most important target of our 2021 class, and as a 247 and Rivals subscriber, I read/listen to as much content (public & restricted) on Leigh as I can get my hands on. Admittedly, I “nerded-out” on the process, to the point of taking notes on the specifics of OU and LSU’s recruit-led visits. For the sake of transparency, I do not have connections to Tristan Leigh or the LSU football team; I’m just a passionate alum with access to the pay-sites and a strong desire to see LSU sign the best possible recruiting class for 2021.

I wrote this post as a rebuttal to recent content that resulted in the “Leigh to OU” smoke (sorry for length, it’s a deep dive).

Now for the substance – Similar to many on this board, I noticed how the LSU momentum for T. Leigh slowly faded following his second September visit in as many weeks, only to be replaced by seemingly unexplained shifts in CBs and FCs by the “higher-ups” of the pay-sites. Seeing as how Leigh is the most important target on LSU’s big board, this didn’t sit well with me so I closely reviewed the recent content causing the OU smoke (created by Wiltfong, Farrell & Gorney). In addition, I re-watched Leigh’s OTB interview, re-read past articles, and scanned my notes to refresh my memory of the facts and circumstances of his recruitment.

BOTTOM LINE – It appears to be a two (2) horse race between LSU & OU for Tristan Leigh, and I don’t doubt that its going to be a tight race down the stretch. However, I DON’T BELIEVE IN THE NARRATIVE CLAIMING OKLAHOMA SURPASSED LSU DURING THE 6-8 WEEKS SINCE HIS LAST VISIT TO BATON ROUGE. Here’s why...

In the OTB interview this summer, Leigh was asked about his top three (3) priorities for selecting a school. Here they are (with my opinion of who has the advantage in parenthesis).

1. Relationship w/ coaches (Leigh has good relationships w/ 'O' and Cregg, as well as, Riley and Bedenbaugh of OU. However, building relationships with players/parents is a strength of 'O', plus LSU was one of the first Power 5 teams to prioritize TL. LSU w/ slight advantage here).

2. Development for NFL (Both Cregg and Bedenbaugh have coached OLs that won the Joe Moore award, & both have developed guys playing on Sundays. LSU/OU pretty even here).

3. Academics (Not much out there on this topic. Assumed no edge for either LSU/OU).

While not mentioned in his list of priorities, early playing time is also important and it was discussed in the OTB interview. I reviewed OU’s depth chart and their last 4 OL recruiting classes. I estimate Oklahoma will begin the 2021 season with 3-4 more scholarship lineman, most of which were top-300 recruits (OU has recruited the OL pretty well the last few years). I give LSU the advantage when it comes to early playing time.

Perhaps more telling than a recruits stated priorities are his actions. I strongly believe Leigh’s actions suggest LSU, as he’s visited BR four (4) times over the last 1.5 years – compared to Oklahoma once (1).

I’ve seen several posts on this board about Rivals future casts (FCs) switching from LSU to OU, so I took a closer look. For starters, I couldn’t find where Farrell and Gorney’s opinions are based on anything more than speculation, FC trends and Leigh’s relationship with Caleb Williams. Regarding the FCs – five or six of the FCs to OU are from “contributors” that cover the beat of Ole Miss, Nebraska, Rutgers, Stanford, & Maryland and the Oklahoma contributors are notorious homers that I don’t believe predict for anyone other than OU – as such, I don’t put much stock into the “FC trends” referenced by Farrell. The only other comment I have about Rivals FCs is that J. Boudwin hasn’t moved off her pick of “Leigh to LSU”, and I know she doesn’t put hers in without thoughtful consideration and conviction. Next up is Leigh’s friendship with OU commit, Caleb Williams. For me, this carries more weight and could potentially be more detrimental for LSU’s chances of landing TL. That said, I’ve always heard recruiting analysts/writers (i.e., Boudwin, Dixon, etc.) say that most guys will ultimately make decisions on what is best for them and not based on desire to play for the same team as a friend. I believe this applies to Leigh, as he is mature beyond his years and approached the recruiting process in workman-like fashion.
Lastly, and this is speculation on my part, I believe Farrell changed his FC to Oklahoma after Leigh didn’t commit to LSU following the two (2) weekend visits. In my opinion, the lack of a commitment isn’t a bad omen because T. Leigh has been adamant about taking his five (5) visits before committing, and it is evident that he was going to visit Ohio State the following month in October (which he ultimately missed due to an unexpected family member’s sickness).

I also saw where Steve Wiltfong flipped his CB to Oklahoma several weeks ago. This occurred immediately following an interview of Leigh leading up to his preliminary commitment date of January 2nd. Wiltfong must have liked the way TL described his interest in OU more than his interest in LSU because the substance quoted for each is pretty similar. Frankly, I don’t see how Wiltfong found enough from the interview to flip his CB, but he believed in it enough to mention it in the “Wiltfong Whiparound” video recorded later the same day. Whatever the case may be, its worth noting that he’s backed the wrong horse on LSU’s last two (2) commitments (S. Ryan & D. Davis).

One other thought before closing – Coming off the best season in history in which LSU was the unquestioned media darling, we’ve had more than our fair share of issues in 2020 (personnel turnover, opt outs, transfers, on-field struggles, etc.). I can’t help but feel that the Wiltfong, Farrell, Gorney’s of the world might be influenced by a desire to see the Tigers come back down to earth (whether consciously or sub-consciously), resulting in the tendency to pick against us anytime its close.

In closing, I couldn't find anything very solid to support Wiltfong, Farrell & Gorney's flip to Oklahoma. As such, this would suggest the change to their prediction is based on nothing more than "gut instinct" and/or speculation. Whatever the case may be, I don't believe there is any doubt that these three (3) represent the source of the "Leigh to OU" smoke. While it is their job to cover this industry and they choose to offer opinions on these topics, I ain't buying it in this case. Now that a tentative announcement date has been published (Jan. 2, 2021 during All-American Bowl Show on NBC), I like the chances of 'O' closing this one out for the good guys!!