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Started By
Message
re: Isaac Downgraded to Tropical Depression
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:48 pm to Interception
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:48 pm to Interception
If the model Hubba posted is right Lafayette, Abbeville, etc are screwed. We just pulled out the boards and have everything ready "in case" ... it can be done quickly for what we need to do. Staying here for the first time (other than IKE) with 2 of our 3 kids .. the oldest is at LSU in BR. I'm thinking I'm glad he didn't come home!
2
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:49 pm to tiger91
The current extrap recon track brings us up against the eastern eyewall.
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:49 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:
It is strengthening as we speak. It does not, however, have much more time til landfall to strengthen. Cat2 at most, although it will likely remain a Cat1.
hold me jplsu... say it'll be ok
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:49 pm to iliveinabox
This is the ECMWF forecast, not GFS.
At 12:00 Noon Wednesday, it predicts 107 mph Peak winds, just short of Cat 3.
At 12:00 Noon, Wednesday, the GFS (shown below) predicts 117 mph peak winds. Notice the similarities in position, however:
Track guidance is very similar, and both are predicting very high winds closed to or within the Cat 3 range.
At 12:00 Noon Wednesday, it predicts 107 mph Peak winds, just short of Cat 3.
At 12:00 Noon, Wednesday, the GFS (shown below) predicts 117 mph peak winds. Notice the similarities in position, however:
Track guidance is very similar, and both are predicting very high winds closed to or within the Cat 3 range.
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:49 pm to lsuhunt555
quote:
Well frick me runnin.
quote:
Bunkie
Yeah Baby...
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:50 pm to LSUray
quote:
I would expect the next projected track to shift further westward after landfall to make more of a diagonal run across Louisiana
Why? Because of that GFS?
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:50 pm to JPLSU1981
Any reports from people in Nola?
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:50 pm to Clyde Tipton
Wow the euro and the GFS BOTH agree on a slow, meandering western movement over water.
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:51 pm to Clyde Tipton
I pretty much figured I'd get some rain and maybe lose power for a day. I did absolutely NO preparing. I am about 24 hours....from being screwed. The wife is gonna be pissed.
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:52 pm to hg
Windy
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:52 pm to HubbaBubba
Okay, but check out the MBS on both, one has 850 mb and the other had 900 MBS?
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:52 pm to texastiger38
Data from a buoy at the mouth of the Mississippi
Sustained winds: 60mph
Gusts: to 80mph
Sustained winds: 60mph
Gusts: to 80mph
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:53 pm to Prominentwon
quote:
Why? Because of that GFS?
The majority of the models used have shifted westward instead of swinging it north past Baton Rouge. These are all coming in well west of the projected path, which currently brings it up the river through northeast LA.
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:53 pm to Elleshoe
quote:
say it'll be ok
As long as I have cable Thursday night, it'll be ok.
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:53 pm to hg
quote:
Any reports from people in Nola?
Just windy in Lakeview.
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:54 pm to Y.A. Tittle
My parents sent me a picture of them standing next to the seawall at the lake. Someone else posted a picture of Canal Blvd as effectively a parking lot with people just walking to the levee to go look. Nothing is going on.
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:54 pm to supernovasky
-ISAAC-WIGGLES AND WOBBLES AGAIN....TRACK NOW MOVES...BACK WEST...
-NEW TRACK TAKES ISAAC UP THRU HOUMA...TO BETWEEN -LAFAYETTE & BATON ROUGE
-EVERYTHING ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THIS STORM NOW, WILL HAVE BIGGER STORM AFFECTS..
-BE READY FOR POWER OUTAGES THAT COULD LAST SEVERAL DAYS ...AND STRONGER LONGER SUSTAINED WINDS...
-THIS STORM IS MOVING SLOWLY....BE READY FOR TONITE, TOMORROW, AND PART OF THURS
-NEW TRACK TAKES ISAAC UP THRU HOUMA...TO BETWEEN -LAFAYETTE & BATON ROUGE
-EVERYTHING ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THIS STORM NOW, WILL HAVE BIGGER STORM AFFECTS..
-BE READY FOR POWER OUTAGES THAT COULD LAST SEVERAL DAYS ...AND STRONGER LONGER SUSTAINED WINDS...
-THIS STORM IS MOVING SLOWLY....BE READY FOR TONITE, TOMORROW, AND PART OF THURS
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:54 pm to Prominentwon
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:55 pm to Ortho Reb
West shifts are bad for BR.
Posted on 8/28/12 at 2:56 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:
As long as I have cable Thursday night, it'll be ok.
thanks for the invite. Ill see you then
This post was edited on 8/28/12 at 2:56 pm
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