Maybe someone can tell me wtf is going on

Still doing Kinobody workout. Moved to the Phase 1/2 workouts from the base workout, but actually thinking of diving into the Warrior workout soon. I've finally hit the mark where i can do 10-12 chin ups without assistance.

I can definitely tell that i'm getting stronger, but that i'm also starting to plateau. Struggling to get 6 reps with 95lbs dumbbells right now and my shoulder press has seemed to stopped increasing too. But Warrior workout drops the amount of sets from 3 to 2, why is that? And that lead to my issue.

My watch says i burn about 200-250 cals per workout. I feel good afterwards and i feel like i'm getting a decent workout but should be burning more calories. On Tues/Thurs i bike with a goal calorie of 450 calories (according to the program, anything more induces hunger, did i read that correctly?) Long story short, my waistline has been getting a little tighter the past few weeks. The only thing i've done differently is i started introducing a Muscle Milk protein shake daily. I do this at lunch to break my fast, and usually don't eat until my supper later in the evening. Are the muscle milks really causing this? The milk is the pro version which is only 200 calories/2.5 fat/3 net carbs/ and 40 protein.

I started doing this b/c i felt that i wasn't getting enough protein throughout the day and i wanted to start breaking my fast with protein/carbs instead of fat/carbs. Also, i felt it could hold me over throughout the day and i could just eat a bigger meal for supper while technically still doing a 16/8 fast.


TL;DR - pants getting tighter, introduced muscle milk. Is that the cause?