re: Trump lead tops 1,491,000 in Florida (updated)

quote:

---

I’m confused by the numbers on that site.

The day of voting percentage declines while the total vote percentage rises along with the spread between R and D.

---

It's because I'm focused on ED only votes, as that could be predictive in other states with early voting. Rs opened up an early morning gap there, but Ds have been narrowing the gap (on a proportional basis). The total vote gap is still growing, but the R lead over D on a percentage basis (for today only) is decreasing.

quote:

---

I don't see any numbers that could let me determine the context for the current election day numbers.

---

The site here shows it, from Florida's data.

ED vote doesn't matter for Florida itself. It's going to Trump and likely in margins in excess of polling averages. ED vote in Florida, however, can tell us how much cannibalization is going on in the R camp in states with early voting. That trend can be predictive.

Looks like Trump supporters are getting out the vote in Jax. Normally the numbers for Jax lean democrat. He’s gonna blow out Fl but just in case the folks in the panhandle always come thru for Trump.

quote:

---

ED vote doesn't matter for Florida itself. It's going to Trump and likely in margins in excess of polling averages. ED vote in Florida, however, can tell us how much cannibalization is going on in the R camp in states with early voting. That trend can be predictive.

---

Right, but I see that the registered GOP is outpacing the Dems by 19.7% on ED, which is a lot. Is there any way to find the final number for 2016 or 2020 for election day only. In other words, is the GOP outpacing the Dems' election day vote by more or less than those past years?

That's my understanding .. a weaker ED margin in Florida could mean that Republicans did in fact cannibalize their ED wave by voting early

Of course it's all speculation because Florida is the only state that updates their counts as they come in. Every other state is stuck in 1824

I think some are being way to literal about the data republican tweet.

The idea is AROUND a 20% ED advantage could be a great landslide level sign for R turnout throughout the swing states.

It also clearly says that "Projecting Florida's R turnout onto other states is of limited use"

I would also say that it seems pretty important to me that the fact that R's had already turned out more than 90% of the state's total D registration before noon means that D's are likely to gain some ground through the afternoon, but the R's have absolutely mobilized their electorate, which is the most important thing by far.

If the D's swarm through the day and it gets below 15% ED advantage their might be a reason to worry, but 16-17+ should be a solid sign overall especially with the huge overall turnout by Rs

quote:

---

I think some are being way to literal about the data republican tweet.

The idea is AROUND a 20% ED advantage could be a great landslide level sign for R turnout throughout the swing states.

It also clearly says that "Projecting Florida's R turnout onto other states is of limited use"

I would also say that it seems pretty important to me that the fact that R's had already turned out more than 90% of the state's total D registration before noon means that D's are likely to gain some ground through the afternoon, but the R's have absolutely mobilized their electorate, which is the most important thing by far.

---

All correct, and other Florida data points appear to point toward a great overall environment for R hopes. But I've been pretty interested in trying to ascertain the amount of ED cannibalism that early voting will have in other states. Think we're seeing some of that play out in Nevada.

As much as running up the score is fun, I hope this trend holds in other states.

Florida is Trump