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re: Florida still holding at 18.09% with a lot of deep red panhandle still to come
Posted on 11/5/24 at 4:02 pm to pleading the fifth
Posted on 11/5/24 at 4:02 pm to pleading the fifth
quote:
This is my impression. Basically when the bluer part of eastern FL has their polls close most of the “new” votes should skew heavily R.
Looking at the ED numbers RIGHT NOW the 10 central time zone counties are, on average, R +36. Those will be the only counties still open after 7:00 EST. Ostensibly, that means for that 1 hour period roughly 2/3rds of the total votes in those counties combined will be R (maybe a bit more)
It's 5:00 pm (ET) now with the ED advantage being (by their numbers) 17.65%. That's the lowest it's been all day. Let's see if the theory that the "after work" vote will trend in favor of the R's comes true
1
Posted on 11/5/24 at 4:06 pm to lsufan0582
Florida should be a quick call tonight
Posted on 11/5/24 at 4:13 pm to Alt26
quote:
It's 5:00 pm (ET) now with the ED advantage being (by their numbers) 17.65%. That's the lowest it's been all day. Let's see if the theory that the "after work" vote will trend in favor of the R's comes true
So the Election Day Advantage that @DataRepublican was speculating had it as ~20% amazing and ~15% close.
As we pass 5:00 pm ET, it looks like we're sitting at 17.57%.
Assuming that 'after work' vote concept is accurate, can we take from this that we might actually approach his "amazing" 20% threshold at this point?
Posted on 11/5/24 at 4:20 pm to paperwasp
quote:
Assuming that 'after work' vote concept is accurate, can we take from this that we might actually approach his "amazing" 20% threshold at this point?
It's not trending that way at the moment. The number keeps going down Of course, it's just 5:20 (ET), so that could change. It will be interesting to see where the number sits at 7:00 pm (ET) because after that it should be all red for an hour (relatively speaking)
This post was edited on 11/5/24 at 4:21 pm
Posted on 11/5/24 at 4:21 pm to Alt26
We are 17.5. Halfway between landslide and fair.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 4:25 pm to Jake88
I want it over 20 before the night is out. I think that means a landslide.
It may be a landslide anyway. I'm 100% taking DataRepublican's word on the interpretation of what those numbers mean, which may be total nonsense to be honest.
It may be a landslide anyway. I'm 100% taking DataRepublican's word on the interpretation of what those numbers mean, which may be total nonsense to be honest.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 4:27 pm to 1putt
quote:I wouldn't. Who knows who they are. And, it's a hypothesis not backed by any research. Just a curiosity in my mind.
I'm 100% taking DataRepublican's word on the interpretation of what those numbers mean, which may be total nonsense to be honest
Posted on 11/5/24 at 4:28 pm to lsufan0582
Do you watch Dr Steve Turley? He was talking about exactly what you just said lol with that exact same link
Posted on 11/5/24 at 4:31 pm to lsufan0582
The only blue county in the panhandle is Leon county
Posted on 11/5/24 at 4:32 pm to lsufan0582
Republicans get big voter surges right when the polls open in the early AM hours (before work voters and seniors) and another surge after 5 pm when people get off of work.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 4:34 pm to StansberryRules
quote:No surge is happening currently as the margin continues to shrink - 17.44% now. Not a bad number, but not the 20% people were hoping for.
Republicans get big voter surges right when the polls open in the early AM hours (before work voters and seniors) and another surge after 5 pm when people get off of work.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 4:34 pm to StansberryRules
Panhandle is about to go full throttle. 
Posted on 11/5/24 at 4:35 pm to 1putt
quote:
I'm 100% taking DataRepublican's word on the interpretation of what those numbers mean, which may be total nonsense to be honest.
It was their best guess. Those numbers mean nothing. Pay attention to the areas that went blue in 2020 and are now red at the moment. Duval, Miami Dade and Hillsborough.
We're 1.5 hours from those polls closing and they're still red. Bodes well.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 4:37 pm to Jake88
I live about 10 miles North of the AL/FL line in a rural area. Our house is within 1/4 mile of the local polling location and I have driven by it at 6:30 every morning for the last 26 years. I had planned to vote this morning before work. The line was probably 75-100 yards long at 6:30, so I just went on to work and came back at 3:00. The guy checking ID’s said this would be a record at our precinct No line at 3:00, but he said it had been steady all day. My wife just got there at 4:30 and said the line is out the door and wrapped around the building again. Those folks 10 miles away in the panhandle aren’t going to be any different. There will be another large vote total for Trump coming from the panhandle!
Posted on 11/5/24 at 4:37 pm to lsufan0582
This has Trump estimated at an 11% margin. If this is true in any way, the following are in play.
CO, NH, NM, NJ, VA, ME
It also means he will win the popular vote.
What I will say… 4 years ago we viewed Florida as a litmus test and we were very wrong. Though there are many different indicators today.
CO, NH, NM, NJ, VA, ME
It also means he will win the popular vote.
What I will say… 4 years ago we viewed Florida as a litmus test and we were very wrong. Though there are many different indicators today.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 4:44 pm to TideCPA
quote:17.34%. Will it stay north of 15%?
No surge is happening currently as the margin continues to shrink - 17.44% now. Not a bad number, but not the 20% people were hoping for.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 4:47 pm to Azkiger
quote:
No, but Trump wasn't +18 either.
If these polling errors transfer to other state results it's a great sign
if you click all votes including the early the leads only 10. point still stands but its not like hes up 18 overall. just for today. still a good sign
Posted on 11/5/24 at 4:48 pm to TideCPA
It's not 5pm in the panhandle.
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