re: Bellwether Alert: Duval County R +3.1

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where do these numbers even come from? Is it just exit polls? Because with voting still open, no counties can report any actual vote tally.

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These are based on partisan ballot affiliation and ballot requests at the polls, coupled with early voting.

Its long been the standard of pre-vote tabulation calculations about the nature of turnout.

When they check your name on the voter roll to check you in to vote, they fill a box, essentially, that says someone with your partisan lean has voted. People tend to vote in accordance to their partisan lean, to a great degree. That allows snapshot capture of where a race and turnout are.

Its why you can see that Election Day turnout so far in Florida is Trump +19 roughly.

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Dirty Donna (D) won the mayoral race for Jacksonville last election because of low turnout and all the females voting for her. 

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Her opponent ran the most awkward campaign. Everyone that I knew that knew him personally only had great things to say about the guy but...all the campaign lit just attacked everyone that moved. I didn't want to vote for the guy

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John Barron

Jackson is insanely liberal democrat

These numbers are crazy if true

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Jackson..ville. Not Jackson

I've lived in Jacksonville for 25 yrs and we have had a R mayor all but 5 yrs ( current D mayor is 1 yr into her term)

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Huge US Navy presence

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Definitely not voting for a woman President, I dont care how much smoke military people blow.

I clearly remember 3am rental uhauls arriving in back alleys at vote counting locations and someone opening the loading dock entrance and watching them put buckets of ballots on dollys and wheel them in.

Sure do remember.

Duval County still holding at a 2.95% GOP advantage right now

The overall FL election day vote has been trickling down from +21 R to, now, +18 R. I suspect it probably gets into the +17R range in the next hour or so.

(NOTE: this is not overly relevant as for as the result in Florida is concerned. Trump will very likely win. The relevance is trying to model election day turnout nationwide. Nerds who are smarter than me seem to think +20 R in Florida COULD portend a big turnout advantage nationwide).

The question is will that +18 (or +17) tick back up with the "after work" voters. Inexact logic says it should, but we will see.

Panhandle always roars late

Duvall ups the Dem count every election like baiting false hopes in the Dems. The last FL vote to come in is west of Apalachicola, where the 'necks bring it home