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BB Preview: LSU @ Auburn; Sat 2/8; 11:00 AM CST; ESPN
Posted on 2/7/20 at 10:30 am
Posted on 2/7/20 at 10:30 am
Below is each team's NET ranking and quadrant resumes. This is a quadrant 1 game for LSU at Auburn as they are very much inside the Top 75 (vs. 1-75 away game is Quadrant 1). These results are as of 2/7/20.
Quad 1 = Against #1-30 Home, #1-50 Neutral, #1-75 Away
Quad 2 = Against #31-75 Home, #51-100 Neutral, #76-135 Away
Quad 3 = Against #76-150 Home, #101-200 Neutral, #136-240 Away
Quad 4 = Against #161-353 Home, #201-353 Neutral, #241-353 Away
#28 (17-5, 8-1 SEC) LSU
Quad 1 = 3-2
Quad 2 = 7-2
Quad 3 = 3-1
Quad 4 = 4-0
#17 (20-2, 7-2 SEC) Auburn
Quad 1 = 3-2
Quad 2 = 6-0
Quad 3 = 7-0
Quad 4 = 4-0
LSU as of recent
Finally knocked off in conference play, by a previously winless in conference Vandy team, what’s to say other than completely shocking. After winning 10 straight games, 8 in conference play, a really bad Vanderbilt team knocked us off at their place this week. Now, Vanderbilt had played Kentucky, Auburn and Florida tough this season, but to actually pick up the win against us took an absolute way over their head performance where a guy like Maxwell Evans who probably nobody in the conference knew before the game dropping 30+ points for Vandy to win this one. We ran into Vandy on the wrong night, and we thought we could simply outscore them, and failed to do so. The defensive effort was non-existent as guarding the 3 point line continues to be a major issue for the team. Scoring was not a problem for us on the night but the defensive (lack of) effort made it easy for Vandy going inside on us and knocking down wide open 3s most of the game.
Auburn as of recent
After getting off to a ridiculously hot 15-0 start to the season, Auburn dropped back to back conference games at Bama and at Florida (where neither game was close) but since then have won 5 straight games including knocking off Kentucky and winning @ Arkansas. This has been the best team in the conference this season overall and is looking to finally take over 1st place in the conference on Saturday over us at home. Expect the arena to be rocking even with the 11 AM tip.
Auburn projected starters
C (6'11, 260) SR. Austin Wiley
PF (6'7, 230) SR. Danjel Purifoy
SF (6'6, 225) FR. Issac Okoro
SG (6'4, 195) SR. Samir Doughty
PG (6'0, 185) SR. J’Von McCormick
Austin Wiley is an NBA caliber center who doesn’t play a ton of minutes, but is very effective when he does play. Wiley in 19.8 conference minutes per game is averaging 8.4 points, 8 rebounds (3.1 offensive), 1.6 blocks on 47% from the floor. His conference PER is 24.1 and will be hitting the glass hard and protecting the rim well for Auburn.
Danjel Purifoy is a stretch 4 who shoots more 3’s than 2’s although in conference play has struggled from there. In 28.9 conference minutes per game is averaging 9.6 points, 5.1 boards (1.6 offensive), 1.6 assists on 38% from the floor and 28% from 3. His conference PER is 15.6.
Isaac Okoro is a super freshman who will be in the NBA next season. In 34.3 conference minutes per game is averaging 12.7 points, 4.8 boards (1.9 offensive), 2.7 assists to 1.4 turnovers, 1.4 steals and 0.9 blocks on 44% from the floor and 36% from 3 (takes 2.8 per game). Okoro’s conference PER is 20.1. Great all around player who is very tough.
Samir Doughty is a former VCU transfer who played ok but nothing notable last year and this year is Auburn’s leading scorer. He takes over 5 3’s a conference game and in 33.3 conference minutes per game is averaging 14 points, 4 boards, 2 assists to 2.2 turnovers on 34% from the floor and 24% from 3. His conference PER is only 12.9 on the season. So while he leads the team in scoring, is a bit of a chucker and not high percentage player.
J’Von McCormick. backed up Jared Harper last year and was a relative unknown and this year has stepped into the starting PG role relatively well for Auburn. In 31.8 minutes per conference game is averaging 11.4 pints, 3.8 boards, 3.1 assists to 2.8 turnovers on 37% from the floor and 21% from 3 (takes 3.2 per game). His conference Per is just 11.3 on the season.
Auburn top bench players
PF (6’7, 220) SR. Anfernee McLemore
SG (6’5, 200) FR. Allen Flanigan
SG (6’4, 195) rSO. Jamal Johnson
SF (6’6,190) FR. Devan Cambridge
Auburn will go a little deep on the bench but only 1 player really presents many issues for you. McLemore is a starting caliber stretch 4 off the bench who get about 23 minutes a game and averages 9 points a game in conference play with a 19.3 conference PER. Flanigan, Johnson and Cambridge all average around 3 points a game off the bench and between 9-13.6 minutes a game in conference play. Cambridge is a little more well rounded than the other 2 guys but all 3 will fire up more 3’s than 2’s.
Auburn as a team
The short answer here is Auburn is a lot like LSU, that takes more 3’s (And doesn’t make them any higher than we do % wise) and plays MUCH better defense. They will pound offensive glass much like we do, (34.4% of misses rebounded vs. 38.8% for us), get to the line like we do although not as efficient there as we are and are good but not great from 2 (we are elite there). Auburn has a solid enough defense and very good offense, although not quite as efficient as ours. The biggest difference between Auburn and us is experience, they start 4 seniors, bring 1 off the bench and have an elite freshman, not very much unlike Watford, but we’re certainly not rotating 5 seniors like they are. It’s a very very experienced team with a sprinkle of a great young talent in Okoro.
The Matchup
It’s not as bad as you may think as kenpom thinks this will be a tight game according to the numbers. Where Auburn has a clear advantage over us is inside with the 6’11 Wiley. I think we’ve got the guards to easily match or surpass Auburn as they aren’t nearly as strong there as they were last year. However, Auburn goes very quality at the big spots. We have the #1 offense in SEC and they have the #6 defense. We have the #11 defense and they have the #6 offense. We have the #2 offensive rebounding team in the conference but they defend that best in conference. They only shoot 27.6% from 3, which is good because we cant defend it either. In the end, this game could come down to a number of factors, but one of the biggest working in Auburn’s favor is a 9 man rotation vs. our 7 man rotation. We can’t get into foul trouble or have any injuries really. Honestly after the Vandy loss I don’t know if we will parlay that into a wake up call and play extremely tough with much better effort or come out flat on the road and lose to what I think is a superior team to us.
Projected LSU Starting 5
PF (6'6, 230) SO. Emmitt Williams - #5
PF (6'6, 240) SO. Darius Days - #0
SF (6'9, 235) FR. Trendon Watford - #2
SG (6'4, 205) SR. Skylar Mays - #4
PG (6'4, 205) SO. Javonte Smart - #1
Main rotational players
SF (6'5, 210) SR. Marlon Taylor - #14
SF (6'5, 225) rFR. Aundre Hyatt - #15
Kenpom's Prediction: LSU 75 Auburn 79
Quad 1 = Against #1-30 Home, #1-50 Neutral, #1-75 Away
Quad 2 = Against #31-75 Home, #51-100 Neutral, #76-135 Away
Quad 3 = Against #76-150 Home, #101-200 Neutral, #136-240 Away
Quad 4 = Against #161-353 Home, #201-353 Neutral, #241-353 Away
#28 (17-5, 8-1 SEC) LSU
Quad 1 = 3-2
Quad 2 = 7-2
Quad 3 = 3-1
Quad 4 = 4-0
#17 (20-2, 7-2 SEC) Auburn
Quad 1 = 3-2
Quad 2 = 6-0
Quad 3 = 7-0
Quad 4 = 4-0
LSU as of recent
Finally knocked off in conference play, by a previously winless in conference Vandy team, what’s to say other than completely shocking. After winning 10 straight games, 8 in conference play, a really bad Vanderbilt team knocked us off at their place this week. Now, Vanderbilt had played Kentucky, Auburn and Florida tough this season, but to actually pick up the win against us took an absolute way over their head performance where a guy like Maxwell Evans who probably nobody in the conference knew before the game dropping 30+ points for Vandy to win this one. We ran into Vandy on the wrong night, and we thought we could simply outscore them, and failed to do so. The defensive effort was non-existent as guarding the 3 point line continues to be a major issue for the team. Scoring was not a problem for us on the night but the defensive (lack of) effort made it easy for Vandy going inside on us and knocking down wide open 3s most of the game.
Auburn as of recent
After getting off to a ridiculously hot 15-0 start to the season, Auburn dropped back to back conference games at Bama and at Florida (where neither game was close) but since then have won 5 straight games including knocking off Kentucky and winning @ Arkansas. This has been the best team in the conference this season overall and is looking to finally take over 1st place in the conference on Saturday over us at home. Expect the arena to be rocking even with the 11 AM tip.
Auburn projected starters
C (6'11, 260) SR. Austin Wiley
PF (6'7, 230) SR. Danjel Purifoy
SF (6'6, 225) FR. Issac Okoro
SG (6'4, 195) SR. Samir Doughty
PG (6'0, 185) SR. J’Von McCormick
Austin Wiley is an NBA caliber center who doesn’t play a ton of minutes, but is very effective when he does play. Wiley in 19.8 conference minutes per game is averaging 8.4 points, 8 rebounds (3.1 offensive), 1.6 blocks on 47% from the floor. His conference PER is 24.1 and will be hitting the glass hard and protecting the rim well for Auburn.
Danjel Purifoy is a stretch 4 who shoots more 3’s than 2’s although in conference play has struggled from there. In 28.9 conference minutes per game is averaging 9.6 points, 5.1 boards (1.6 offensive), 1.6 assists on 38% from the floor and 28% from 3. His conference PER is 15.6.
Isaac Okoro is a super freshman who will be in the NBA next season. In 34.3 conference minutes per game is averaging 12.7 points, 4.8 boards (1.9 offensive), 2.7 assists to 1.4 turnovers, 1.4 steals and 0.9 blocks on 44% from the floor and 36% from 3 (takes 2.8 per game). Okoro’s conference PER is 20.1. Great all around player who is very tough.
Samir Doughty is a former VCU transfer who played ok but nothing notable last year and this year is Auburn’s leading scorer. He takes over 5 3’s a conference game and in 33.3 conference minutes per game is averaging 14 points, 4 boards, 2 assists to 2.2 turnovers on 34% from the floor and 24% from 3. His conference PER is only 12.9 on the season. So while he leads the team in scoring, is a bit of a chucker and not high percentage player.
J’Von McCormick. backed up Jared Harper last year and was a relative unknown and this year has stepped into the starting PG role relatively well for Auburn. In 31.8 minutes per conference game is averaging 11.4 pints, 3.8 boards, 3.1 assists to 2.8 turnovers on 37% from the floor and 21% from 3 (takes 3.2 per game). His conference Per is just 11.3 on the season.
Auburn top bench players
PF (6’7, 220) SR. Anfernee McLemore
SG (6’5, 200) FR. Allen Flanigan
SG (6’4, 195) rSO. Jamal Johnson
SF (6’6,190) FR. Devan Cambridge
Auburn will go a little deep on the bench but only 1 player really presents many issues for you. McLemore is a starting caliber stretch 4 off the bench who get about 23 minutes a game and averages 9 points a game in conference play with a 19.3 conference PER. Flanigan, Johnson and Cambridge all average around 3 points a game off the bench and between 9-13.6 minutes a game in conference play. Cambridge is a little more well rounded than the other 2 guys but all 3 will fire up more 3’s than 2’s.
Auburn as a team
The short answer here is Auburn is a lot like LSU, that takes more 3’s (And doesn’t make them any higher than we do % wise) and plays MUCH better defense. They will pound offensive glass much like we do, (34.4% of misses rebounded vs. 38.8% for us), get to the line like we do although not as efficient there as we are and are good but not great from 2 (we are elite there). Auburn has a solid enough defense and very good offense, although not quite as efficient as ours. The biggest difference between Auburn and us is experience, they start 4 seniors, bring 1 off the bench and have an elite freshman, not very much unlike Watford, but we’re certainly not rotating 5 seniors like they are. It’s a very very experienced team with a sprinkle of a great young talent in Okoro.
The Matchup
It’s not as bad as you may think as kenpom thinks this will be a tight game according to the numbers. Where Auburn has a clear advantage over us is inside with the 6’11 Wiley. I think we’ve got the guards to easily match or surpass Auburn as they aren’t nearly as strong there as they were last year. However, Auburn goes very quality at the big spots. We have the #1 offense in SEC and they have the #6 defense. We have the #11 defense and they have the #6 offense. We have the #2 offensive rebounding team in the conference but they defend that best in conference. They only shoot 27.6% from 3, which is good because we cant defend it either. In the end, this game could come down to a number of factors, but one of the biggest working in Auburn’s favor is a 9 man rotation vs. our 7 man rotation. We can’t get into foul trouble or have any injuries really. Honestly after the Vandy loss I don’t know if we will parlay that into a wake up call and play extremely tough with much better effort or come out flat on the road and lose to what I think is a superior team to us.
Projected LSU Starting 5
PF (6'6, 230) SO. Emmitt Williams - #5
PF (6'6, 240) SO. Darius Days - #0
SF (6'9, 235) FR. Trendon Watford - #2
SG (6'4, 205) SR. Skylar Mays - #4
PG (6'4, 205) SO. Javonte Smart - #1
Main rotational players
SF (6'5, 210) SR. Marlon Taylor - #14
SF (6'5, 225) rFR. Aundre Hyatt - #15
Kenpom's Prediction: LSU 75 Auburn 79
Posted on 2/7/20 at 10:51 am to thunderbird1100
I think it’s going to be a good game that will come down to the final minute. We will play one of our better games tomorrow. Doesn’t mean we will win but we will compete and give the effort needed to get the W.
This post was edited on 2/7/20 at 10:52 am
Posted on 2/7/20 at 10:59 am to thunderbird1100
Traditionally under Wade lsu is pretty good bouncing back after a loss or a terrible game
Hope that's the case tomorrow
Hope that's the case tomorrow
Posted on 2/7/20 at 11:10 am to thunderbird1100
Huge game
The beer will be flowing early tomorrow
The beer will be flowing early tomorrow
Posted on 2/7/20 at 11:23 am to Pnels08
(no message)
This post was edited on 1/11/21 at 10:20 am
Posted on 2/7/20 at 11:53 am to thunderbird1100
No Defense and No PG. Auburn wins by 10 or more.
Posted on 2/7/20 at 12:02 pm to thunderbird1100
quote:
Where Auburn has a clear advantage over us is inside with the 6’11 Wiley.
Wiley is averaging less than 10 ppg and playing only 20 mpg. His big contribution is rebounding moreso than anything else. Plus, big size hasn't hurt LSU this season (ex: USC's bigs, Perry at MSU, Blackshear at Fla).
Auburn is a lot like LSU in that their efficiency ratings don't really match up with their w/l records. Even before the Vandy debacle, LSU was ranked in the Kenpom 30's despite being 17-4. Auburn is current #29, far and away the worst ranking of any power conf. team with 3 or fewer losses. What that leads you to believe is that Auburn and LSU may be worse than their records suggest.
LSU is the better offensive team. The difference is (and this should come as no surprise) that Auburn is a MUCH better defensive team than LSU, but not necessarily "elite" relative to the rest of the country.
AU is a lot like LSU in that they have a lot of long, athletic guys in the 6'4 to 6'7 range. This isn't the AU teams of the last 2 years who could just barrage you with threes. But as we've seen, LSU is horrible when it comes to defending the three and even average shooting teams can have big games from deep
I'm interested to see how Wade adjusts (if he adjusts). I can't imagine he really thinks the Vandy game was just an abberration and that the same defensive approach will work tomorrow. While not the complete uptempo team of last year, this AU team is athletic enough to play in that style of game. So I wonder if Wade will tone down the pressure/tempo knowing that LSU doesn't clearly out-athlete AU. I understood the approach of hoping LSU's athleticism would eventually wear down Vandy. That won't be the case tomorrow. One thing LSU has improved on from last year is they seem to be much more efficient in the half-court on offense. Maybe the approach is to slow things down to prevent AU from getting easy buckets in transition/early in the clock, thereby limiting the TOTAL shots per game and trusting that your advantage in FG% will pull you through? That's not necessarily LSU's style, but the mathcup may dictate a somewhat different approach to mitigate LSU's weakness (poor defense)
Bottom line. The Vandy loss absolutely sucked. But a win tomorrow would maybe mitigate that loss altogether. Because this game is on the road, a win tomorrow would very likely be LSU's best win of the season...regardless of how the season finishes out. ROAD wins are like gold come selection Sunday. And there isn't a bigger one left on the schedule. If the meltdown at Vandy is the direct cause of a win tomorrow, then in many respects what happen Wed. would be worth it.
Posted on 2/7/20 at 12:27 pm to BurrowTrump2020
haven't seen spread yet i expect it to open around 2-3.
Posted on 2/7/20 at 3:55 pm to thunderbird1100
Yall look out for me on TV in purple and gold in the Auburn student section
Posted on 2/7/20 at 4:34 pm to basiletiger
quote:
haven't seen spread yet i expect it to open around 2-3.
The ones I've seen are all at -5.5 Auburn. Not unexpected. That means the odds makers think AU is about 1-2 points better than LSU on a neutral court. AU has only lost 3 SEC games at home over the past 3 years (to date). Now would be a good time to give them their 1 loss for this season
Posted on 2/7/20 at 5:33 pm to josh336
2nd SEC loss of the year... no pg and no bench = big loss
Posted on 2/8/20 at 12:19 am to thunderbird1100
Thanks Thunderbird.
Can we just get a little bit tighter on defense?
It'd go a long way for this team,
and they're gonna have to bring the 'A' game.
Hope that loss Wednesday was a wake up call.
Can we just get a little bit tighter on defense?
It'd go a long way for this team,
and they're gonna have to bring the 'A' game.
Hope that loss Wednesday was a wake up call.
Posted on 2/8/20 at 1:51 am to thunderbird1100
Auburn will win handily.
Posted on 2/8/20 at 4:14 am to thunderbird1100
My love for sports began with the Nikita Wilson-led Tiger Basketball team in 1987.
Posted on 2/8/20 at 12:44 pm to reauxhit
Hey is that you in tv they keep showing the LSU fan in Auburn section?
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