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Started By
Message
Helmut Norpoth predicts Trump win!!
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:07 pm
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:07 pm
quote:
he Primary Model gives President Donald Trump a 91%-chance of winning re-election in a matchup against Democrat Joe Biden. Trump is predicted to get 362 electoral votes, Biden 176. This is not an extrapolation of a popular-vote forecast but a forecast of the electoral vote straight from the model predictors. In the event that one candidate wins the popular vote and the other the electoral vote, as happened in 2016, all that matters is the electoral vote. For the record, the Primary Model gets the electoral-vote winner right in 25 of the 27 elections from 1912 to 2016.
Political science now
This post was edited on 10/30/20 at 7:08 pm
14
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:08 pm to Covingtontiger77
Who?
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:08 pm to Covingtontiger77
quote:
Trump is predicted to get 362 electoral votes, Biden 176.
I'm sorry but even if Trump wins, just no.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:08 pm to Covingtontiger77
Is this to offset the prediction just made on Fox?
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:08 pm to Covingtontiger77
362 must involve Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico all going red.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:08 pm to LuckyTiger
Google him
Predicted 2016
Predicted 2016
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:09 pm to Covingtontiger77
quote:
Trump is predicted to get 362 electoral votes
:Idontbelieveyou.gif.nasa/org:
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:09 pm to Covingtontiger77
I like the effort!
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:10 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:That's just what he won last time and a very believable 4 or 5 states other states
I'm sorry but even if Trump wins, just no.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:10 pm to LuckyTiger
quote:
Who?
Funny, that is exactly what I said about the guy predicting Biden who "has been right in every election since 1984
Does one matter more than the other?
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:11 pm to aubie101
I hope so 
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:12 pm to Covingtontiger77
quote:
Trump is predicted to get 362 electoral votes, Biden 176.
Crazy things can happen but I just can't see 362. I can see adding a state or two getting 320 to even 330 at every best but 362? Can't see that happening.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:12 pm to Covingtontiger77
This has been posted at least seven times over the last 8 weeks. This model is bogus.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:13 pm to gthog61
I asked who that was as well.
Just wondering about the background on these guys.
Just wondering about the background on these guys.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:16 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
I'm sorry but even if Trump wins, just no.
Your Negative Nancyism is reaching Magician level proportions.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:19 pm to Saint Alfonzo
quote:
Your Negative Nancyism is reaching Magician level proportions.
My user name isn't Scruffy, baw. Better check yo self.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:20 pm to Jake88
quote:
This has been posted at least seven times over the last 8 weeks. This model is bogus.
Why don't you tell us why that is?
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:22 pm to aubie101
quote:meh I wasn’t overly impressed with that guy. His point was basically look at all the social unrest and economic downturn so Trump will lose. Maybe in a normal election year that might work but I don’t see it working like that
Is this to offset the prediction just made on Fox?
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:22 pm to Covingtontiger77
He's held on to this prediction for months now. This is nothing new.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:23 pm to Covingtontiger77
I want to believe. His model is probably really good, but covid makes 2020 so bizarre does it interject a factor his model isn't built to handle?
Regardless, hoping for the best Tuesday.
Regardless, hoping for the best Tuesday.
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