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Started By
Message
I did a slightly deeper analyses on the presidential election. Trump wins 294-244.
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:03 pm
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:03 pm
Johnson is out this time for the Libertarian ticket. Johnson attracted many Republican voters and hurt Trump the the most in 2016. For this analysis I assumed that these 2016 Johnson voters will not be voting Libertarian with the current wackos on the Libertarian ticket. So I expect the Libertarian ticket to be 50% of the 2016 turnout. I also assumed the remaining 50%, 60% will go to Trump and 40% will go to Biden. The Johnson ticket last time attracted a large proportion of Republican voters and pulled from Trump.
I assumed the same 60%-40%, Trump-Biden split for the McMullin vote.
For the Stein vote I assumed 5% for Trump and 95% for Biden.
The proportion for "other" did not change and the proportion for Trump did not change. It was assumed Biden will perform as well as Hillary in each state.
Based on this analysis the states that flip are Michigan and New Hampshire.
Michigan goes to Biden and New Hampshire goes to Trump. Every other state is basically a carbon copy of 2016.
I assumed the same 60%-40%, Trump-Biden split for the McMullin vote.
For the Stein vote I assumed 5% for Trump and 95% for Biden.
The proportion for "other" did not change and the proportion for Trump did not change. It was assumed Biden will perform as well as Hillary in each state.
Based on this analysis the states that flip are Michigan and New Hampshire.
Michigan goes to Biden and New Hampshire goes to Trump. Every other state is basically a carbon copy of 2016.
21
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:06 pm to GumboPot
Now do a mail in ballot version
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:06 pm to GumboPot
I think the election comes down to Florida. Trump wins Florida and he wins. If Biden wins Florida, then god help us all
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:07 pm to theunknownknight
quote:
Now do a mail in ballot version
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:10 pm to 7thWardTo314
quote:
I think the election comes down to Florida.
It could end up being that simple.
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:10 pm to 7thWardTo314
Florida, PA, Michigan, North Carolina, and Ohio
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:11 pm to GumboPot
No way does Michigan go to Biden.
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:12 pm to 7thWardTo314
quote:
I think the election comes down to Florida. Trump wins Florida and he wins. If Biden wins Florida, then god help us all
The current voter registration roles in Florida look like this:
4,892,347 Republican
5,142,554 Democrat
168,865 Minor Party
3,605,685 Indy
Florida has always had more registered Dems than Reps but the Reps are catching up. The key just like 2016 are the Florida indies. The Reps are solid and will turn out. The Dems are a little softer due to lack of enthusiasm.
Florida is one of a very few states that are transparent with their voter registration information: LINK
This post was edited on 7/29/20 at 1:46 pm
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:13 pm to GumboPot
No way Trump doesn't take Minnesota.
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:15 pm to BarnHater
quote:
No way does Michigan go to Biden.
Trump will have to get 70% of 50% of the Johnson vote because Biden is getting 95% of the Stein vote.
See the problem in Michigan. Stein hurt Hillary in Michigan in 2016 and Johnson hurt Trump in New Hampshire.
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:15 pm to The People
quote:
No way Trump doesn't take Minnesota.
Trump will have to get Hillary voters to make that happen.
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:18 pm to BarnHater
Any chance that any of Nevada, New Mexico or Colorado go to Trump?
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:21 pm to GumboPot
I think you have Wisconsin and Michigan backwards.
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:21 pm to GumboPot
quote:
Now do a mail in ballot version
Only way Biden wins IMHO. Then Kamala finishes out the term.
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:24 pm to GumboPot
It’s a fair map, but how does The President win WI and PA, but not MI? Look at what half whit is doing to that state. Her approval ratings have dropped a lot. My gut has your map, but add MI and MN. 320 is what I have and don’t discount NV that he only lost by 2%.
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:24 pm to GumboPot
Now flip, Michigan, Nevada and Minnesota to the red column.
And you've got it.
And you've got it.
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:25 pm to nugget
Man I hate seeing NC listed with swing states like Ohio and Michigan. When did this happen?
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:25 pm to GumboPot
I think this is pretty accurate. I see old school liberals holding their nose of voting for Trump. Voter enthusiasm is really high for Trump.
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:26 pm to GumboPot
is this with Bern Bros staying home?
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:26 pm to GeauxGutsy
What would a not all or none electoral map look like?
1 vote each for the house district
2 votes for winner of popular vote in the state
So you would have split electoral votes in certain states like Louisiana and Arkansas.
1 vote each for the house district
2 votes for winner of popular vote in the state
So you would have split electoral votes in certain states like Louisiana and Arkansas.
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