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Started By
Message
re: Mortgage Delinquencies are Spiking
Posted on 7/16/20 at 10:04 pm to HailToTheChiz
Posted on 7/16/20 at 10:04 pm to HailToTheChiz
my friend. jpow has injected big fiscal into society. means assets like houses will increase bigly bc of inflation. read into quantitative easing. cya
0
Posted on 7/16/20 at 10:18 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
White collar cuts haven't come yet. Just be patient.
They’re already taking paycuts. Workers are twice as likely to have pay cut than in 08. The low skill employees are getting fired, but the skilled guys get the option of 15-25% cuts. The massive unemployment numbers would be much higher without all the stimulus and post PPP paycuts. The question becomes how many people can afford their mortgage after a paycut? How many more wouldn’t if rates weren’t tanking?
LINK
Posted on 7/17/20 at 3:40 pm to HailToTheChiz
quote:
I've got a good rate. I just don't feel like wages are keeping pace with ridiculous prices. Like a house in the Birmingham area may have increased by $100k in just 5 years. That's nuts
I'm seeing similar ... and the inventory is very tight right now in the areas I closely watch. Many homes are receiving offers within 2-3 days of being listed, and are receiving multiple offers, frequently "at list" or above.
Rates are so attractive right now, and many baby boomers are moving assets out of the stock market , and into hard assets like real estate.
As one poster stated earlier in the thread, "this is only the beginning." ... and I believe he's correct.
I expect a lot of homes to begin flooding the market when ... delinquencies continue to escalate after the government cheese runs out. The job market is still very shaky, and a similar augment can be made for the equity markets. If there's another pullback in equities, and margin-calls trigger increased liquidations, the real estate bubble could begin to deflate (both commercial and residential).
It warrants close observation ....
This post was edited on 7/17/20 at 3:42 pm
Posted on 7/17/20 at 4:39 pm to cadillacattack
quote:
Rates are so attractive right now, and many baby boomers are moving assets out of the stock market , and into hard assets like real estate.
This should terrify every passive investor on this board
Posted on 7/17/20 at 5:33 pm to cadillacattack
quote:
Rates are so attractive right now, and many baby boomers are moving assets out of the stock market , and into hard assets like real estate.
my guy.. where the proof of this. ty for information
Posted on 7/17/20 at 6:19 pm to Mr Perfect
Look at money flows "my guy"
Flows say institutions are selling equities for bonds and cash. Flows also say net inflows into asset managers is up, which means small buyers are buying what institutions are selling.
Flows say institutions are selling equities for bonds and cash. Flows also say net inflows into asset managers is up, which means small buyers are buying what institutions are selling.
Posted on 7/17/20 at 7:04 pm to Lickitty Split
quote:
Why do you think it will take years? I think at most it will take 2.5 years. As soon as the forbearance period expires the mortgage companies are going to be hiring or contracting with a ton of people to foreclose on these houses. The foreclosure process differs by state but they can typically be evicted and the property auctioned in a short period of time.
In non-judicial f/c states like Ga, it's very fast. It doesn't always move fast, but at the beginning of a crash especially it can move fast because there is less concern with confirming the sale to collect a deficiency, and the volume is still manageable.
Then wheeeeee.
Posted on 7/17/20 at 9:28 pm to McLemore
quote:
Why do you think it will take years? I think at most it will take 2.5 years. As soon as the forbearance period expires the mortgage companies are going to be hiring or contracting with a ton of people to foreclose on these houses. The foreclosure process differs by state but they can typically be evicted and the property auctioned in a short period of time.
This wont happen
Ppl have equity they can sell worst case
Posted on 7/17/20 at 9:44 pm to SDVTiger
Sell how and to who?
Posted on 7/17/20 at 9:47 pm to stout
Put it on the market
To anyone who wanted to make an offer
Ppl have like 40% equity in there homes across the nation
Either way the banks will modify after the forebearance rather the foreclosure
To anyone who wanted to make an offer
Ppl have like 40% equity in there homes across the nation
Either way the banks will modify after the forebearance rather the foreclosure
Posted on 7/17/20 at 10:04 pm to SDVTiger
Youre assuming there will be enough buyers.
Its estimated that 1/3rd of people won't make it out of forbearance or qualify for a modification.
That's what is being stated around the industry and just a reminder I deal with this daily.
That's still several million foreclosures coming and not counting the people that didn't even pursue the forbearance option.
Delinquent mortgage inspections have more than tripled already and those always start months before foreclosures.
quote:
Either way the banks will modify after the forebearance rather the foreclosure
Its estimated that 1/3rd of people won't make it out of forbearance or qualify for a modification.
That's what is being stated around the industry and just a reminder I deal with this daily.
That's still several million foreclosures coming and not counting the people that didn't even pursue the forbearance option.
Delinquent mortgage inspections have more than tripled already and those always start months before foreclosures.
Posted on 7/17/20 at 11:06 pm to cadillacattack
Well duh. Millions of people don’t have a damn job right now. I should consider myself lucky that I got laid off before we closed our home loan.
Posted on 7/17/20 at 11:22 pm to SDVTiger
They can’t sell if the home is underwater.
Posted on 7/18/20 at 8:09 am to TigreB77
They can it’s called a short sale
Posted on 7/18/20 at 8:50 am to go ta hell ole miss
I meant is there a way to make an offer directly to the bank once it’s bank owned. Like an REO.
I may be wrong but aren’t the sheriff foreclosure auctions are pretty risky? They’re all cash transactions and you’re often bidding against the banks to take possession of the house. I don’t think you’ll be won’t be able to assess the interior condition of the house and the property may have other liens so you’d have to do a title search before bidding. Then won’t to be responsible to evicted the old owners?
I may be wrong but aren’t the sheriff foreclosure auctions are pretty risky? They’re all cash transactions and you’re often bidding against the banks to take possession of the house. I don’t think you’ll be won’t be able to assess the interior condition of the house and the property may have other liens so you’d have to do a title search before bidding. Then won’t to be responsible to evicted the old owners?
Posted on 7/18/20 at 8:54 am to ellesssuuu
Right, but the bank has to approve.
Posted on 7/18/20 at 9:32 am to TigreB77
US ownership in regards to equity position in a house was at 30 year market bests before this. You just flat won't see as many homes under water as you might expect coming from such a strong position we were at. They will most likely be able to sell out of it if need be. Home inventory as a whole across the nation is not high enough and the pent up demand of that plus low rates I see keeping up home prices even if the market turns worse than where we are from here. The average Fico score on buyers in 2019 was 60 points higher than pre recession levels in 2006.
However as stated in other threads I would be more worried about commercial mortgages. Hotel CMBS are already up to 12% delinquency rates
However as stated in other threads I would be more worried about commercial mortgages. Hotel CMBS are already up to 12% delinquency rates
Posted on 7/20/20 at 9:54 am to TigreB77
quote:
I meant is there a way to make an offer directly to the bank once it’s bank-owned. Like an REO.
Yes. They list them with realtors. There are a handful of agents in each market that handle the REO properties and what usually happens is the agent already has a list of buyers they deal with on a regular basis so they get the really good deals. Anything that is not a good deal will make it's way to the MLS where you will have people that think just because it's an REO property that it must be a good flip property.
quote:
I may be wrong but aren’t the sheriff foreclosure auctions are pretty risky?
They are straight forward if you know what you are biddding on.
quote:
ey’re all cash transactions and you’re often bidding against the banks to take possession of the house.
The banks are only bidding to the Writ amount. Anything after that is fair game and yes it is cash at the time of the sale. You can refi after or just establish a line of credit with your bank for the purpose of auctions.
quote:
I don’t think you’ll be won’t be able to assess the interior condition of the house and the property
You can if you get creative. I used to roll with magnetic signs on my truck that looked pretty official so no one would bother me and I would find a way to get into the ones I was interested in. Bump keys can be ordered online from locksmith shops though in some states they are illegal to own.
quote:
and the property may have other liens so you’d have to do a title search before bidding.
Sheriff sale title is the cleanest title you can have on a property. It wipes away all liens and claims.
quote:
Then won’t to be responsible to evicted the old owners?
You would but 99.99% of the time they are long gone and any personals left behind are now yours to do with as you please. Only in a personal property state like Texas would you possibly have to do an eviction on a vacant house to obtain the writ of possession before trashing out the remaining items but even then it's very rarely needed.
Posted on 7/20/20 at 10:05 am to HailToTheChiz
quote:
I've got a good rate. I just don't feel like wages are keeping pace with ridiculous prices. Like a house in the Birmingham area may have increased by $100k in just 5 years. That's nuts
We bought our house about 3 years ago. Realtor.com now has the estimated value almost $90k higher than what we paid. As long as they keep selling within a few days of hitting the market and rates stay this low, prices are only going to keep going up.
Posted on 7/20/20 at 10:19 am to Mr Perfect
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