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Started By
Message
re: Here’s some evidence that certain reporters want more testing so that things look worse
Posted on 7/12/20 at 9:43 pm to the808bass
Posted on 7/12/20 at 9:43 pm to the808bass
quote:
You know better than to just lie. 2% is way below the threshold established by the WHO.
I'm not familiar with a WHO threshold. Perhaps you can educate me. It seems that well-controlled areas are showing positivity rates at or below 1%. Seems like a good goal.
1
Posted on 7/12/20 at 9:46 pm to NIH
quote:
How would you manage things? More shutdowns? Please be specific. Thanks.
I answered this already a few posts ago. Scroll up.
Posted on 7/12/20 at 10:17 pm to longwayfromLA
quote:
I'm not familiar with a WHO threshold.
Of course you aren’t. So you just make shite up.
Posted on 7/12/20 at 10:20 pm to longwayfromLA
quote:
The embedded assumption here is that if we make the "grown-up decision" to trade some lives for a better economy we'll necessarily get a better economy. There is not a lot of reason to believe that is true.
We make this "grown-up decision" all the time. What's so special about COVID?
And there actually is a lot of evidence that had we not bothered with government intervention beyond support of isolation/treatment for those at great risk, the economy would be light years better than it is now. It's not like this is the first time we've been confronted with a bad flu, bad cold, etc. Even if for the sake of this discussion I grant you that COVID is 2x or even 3x as deadly as the Hong Kong Flu, there is a ton of evidence and a lot of logic behind the argument that the economy would not be cratered by retired people and very sick people (few have jobs or run small businesses, fair?) being isolated.
quote:
LINK
In the US, 15 states plus DC have issued mandates for face mask use in public between April 8 and May 15. We examine the effects of state mandates for use of face masks in public on the daily COVID-19 growth rate using an event study that examines the effects over different periods.
First, I'll admit I did not read every word of this "study," but I believe it's another example of what I mentioned before - it's not scientific proof that masks work as advertised by the Left.
So face masks were mandated between April 8 and May 15, and there was perceived drops in the transmission of the virus in the data. This is anecdotal, right?
Are you suggesting there were no other mitigation measures/mandates over the study period? I'm pretty sure this was when shelter in place mandates were quite the rage then. What do you think would be more effective in mitigating the spread of a virus - everybody avoiding contact with each other, or the few times there is contact everybody wears a mask?
quote:
The resistance to mask is fascinating since the costs are so low and benefits so great.
It might be fascinating, but it's not hard to figure out.
1. As much as you would like it to be different, it has not been established that masking up America - the masks everybody has, how they use them - is effective, even in the least, against COVID. Even with better practices, it's reasonable to question how effective masking would be. Answer this for me, if you would - if masking was truly that effective, why do we need social distancing/shutting down businesses? If the so-called experts said, "Okay, you have two choices, wear a mask and everybody can go about their normal lives, or don't wear a mask and everybody stay home" - if they truly believed in masks, we'd all comply.
2. But you know masks are 3% about COVID, and 97% about politics. That's why you see the resistance over something that's otherwise no big deal. We are tired of being lied to. We are tired of being manipulated. And there's a reasonable belief that playing along will allow this BS to go on and on.
quote:
If seat belts work, why do we need airbags and crumple zones and anti-lock brakes, etc.?
Meaningless analogy, and I'm sure you know why. But I'll help just in case you haven't thought of it -
To make your analogy work it would have to go something like this -
If seatbelts work (adds $100 to the price of your car), why wouldn't you want airbags and crumple zones and anti-lock brakes even if they raise the price of a $30K car by $100,000?
Now answer that question.
quote:
Other countries have shown that this does not have to be the case. Let's be like them.
We can't be. We aren't Japanese and we don't live in Japan.
If you wanted the US to be more like Japan (as just one example), then you'd have to change the culture completely, change standards and norms of living, change education wholesale, change healthcare systems dramatically.
It's not a government mandate that is the difference between the US and Japan where COVID is concerned.
This post was edited on 7/12/20 at 10:24 pm
Posted on 7/12/20 at 10:28 pm to longwayfromLA
quote:
The implication here is that there is some level of herd immunity that is protecting the NY NJ area. No doubt in some hyperlocal neighborhoods that is true. But broadly speaking, no. The best studies I've seen show that less than a quarter of people have had the virus here. Observationally speaking, there is much more discipline here than I suspect exists in other places. You see masks everywhere. Having lived through April, maybe there is more respect for what the virus can do.
Gtfo. Y’all had almost 25% of the deaths in your state. Don’t come back to tell us what we’re doing wrong.
Absolutely tone deaf.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 5:13 am to the808bass
quote:
Of course you aren’t. So you just make shite up.
I didn't invent the idea that a lower percentage of positive cases is better than higher percentage of cases. I figure that would be pretty intuitive to everyone. It's good to know that you've entirely aligned yourself with the WHO recommendations on such things. I'll keep that in mind for the future.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 5:21 am to the808bass
quote:
Gtfo. Y’all had almost 25% of the deaths in your state. Don’t come back to tell us what we’re doing wrong.
Absolutely tone deaf.
Right, because NY did nothing while the virus silently spread in February and March and thus experienced terrible outcomes early in the pandemic and then fought our way back in control and are now doing relatively well, it is really important that rest of the country learn nothing from that experience and make the same mistakes again and again. That seems self-defeating. Anyway, have you moved off your false claim about herd immunity being broadly present in NY? Or will you just continue to make shite up?
Posted on 7/13/20 at 7:16 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
We were told throughout this entire pandemic that testing is paramount.
We also were told we would open back up once the curve was flattened....i have yet to see a graph since then
Posted on 7/13/20 at 7:17 am to longwayfromLA
quote:
As best I can tell, every country has business open, give or take a Cuba or N. Korea.
London isn't even remotely open right now they are in what would be considered a phase 1 here in the US. Same for Italy and France...
That alone tells me you literally have no clue what truly is open on Europe.
quote:
a heavy push toward voluntary universal masking. PSAs and encouragement to that end from all arm and orifices of power in society. - indeed we are a rich country, everyone in the US should have access to n95 mask by now - extensive contact tracing - re-opening based on a set of standards as opposed to political calculations
Fauci and our scientific community along with the media early on said masks were useless... now there is a push for mask.
Every person in the US has easy access to n95 mask. Are you linking/suggesting that's not the case?
Are we not reopening based on a set of standards? Does each state in the end decide its own standards and decisions - regardless of the federal government? Who did provided phased out options...
quote:
We banned travel from Europe because our NY outbreak was sourced largely from people traveling in from Europe. Eventually, pretty much everywhere banned travel from pretty much everywhere else. The EU now allows international travel again, just not from the US specifically because we are managing so much worse. Are you really of the belief that we're doing this well? Germany has about as many new cases per day as Iowa. Why can't that be us?
The EU is incredibly butthurt at the current administration for a multitude of reasons.
We shut down our bars and restaurants at the same exact time as European countries did. We did fall behind on testing, equipment etc but we have absolutely learned and quickly adjusted on both those fronts to outpace the entire world.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 7:19 am to longwayfromLA
Do you have data to support NY lockdowns being stricter or more effective than California’s? If not, how do you explain CA spiking but not NY? How is that easier to believe than that Farr’s Law has just reached the end of its cycle in NY?
Posted on 7/13/20 at 8:08 am to Athanatos
quote:
Do you have data to support NY lockdowns being stricter or more effective than California’s? If not, how do you explain CA spiking but not NY? How is that easier to believe than that Farr’s Law has just reached the end of its cycle in NY?
Yes. Yesterday the case positivity rate for California was about 8 times that of New York. California is really big, I suspect a few places with California are driving the an outsized number of cases. I'm disinclined to believe that the disease has run its course in NY because the data suggests only 25% of of the population has had the disease which is not enough to confer herd immunity. I am open to the possibility that there other factors driving differentiating in these outcomes.
What I feel comfortable saying is that S. Korea and California have about the same population. California will have more people die of COVID by Wednesday as S. Korea has had since this whole thing began. Can you explain why that is?
Posted on 7/13/20 at 8:08 am to longwayfromLA
quote:
Right, because NY did nothing while the virus silently spread in February and March and thus experienced terrible outcomes early in the pandemic and then fought our way back in control and are now doing relatively well, it is really important that rest of the country learn nothing from that experience and make the same mistakes again and again.
What exactly should be learned from the N.Y. experience? No one knows the extent of the nursing home clusterf*ck. They purposely didn’t track all deaths related to long term care facilities.
For example, the data isn’t consistent nor complete across the country, but we know 45% of deaths are from residents of such facilities. However, NY’s data only claims 10% of deaths despite their facilities being hit exceptionally hard.
The NY state government and Cuomo just released a huge report trying to cover their asses. The report is full of manipulated and selective data. I’m sure it’s no coincidence that they were able to massage a lot of data to fit their narrative because they don’t have huge pieces of it because they purposely didn’t collect it.
Someone can claim their numbers are down because of herd immunity. You can claim they are down because of mask and social distancing policies. I can cite their cases and deaths skyrocketed when Cuomo started sending positive patients back to nursing homes in late March. Cases and deaths have dropped dramatically since he revered his policy in late May.
Who knows because we don’t have full and accurate information.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 8:30 am to longwayfromLA
The goal post keep moving. The shutdowns only delayed the spread. 99.98% will survive this Wuhan virus. Fear messaging and roll backs are 100% political!
Posted on 7/13/20 at 8:31 am to longwayfromLA
quote:
Anyway, have you moved off your false claim about herd immunity being broadly present in NY? Or will you just continue to make shite up?
I didn’t present it in the first place. You wrongly inferred it. Some people will get the virus and some people won’t. Some people (a very small percentage), will experience severe health outcomes including death. The virus will move through the population and will then subside.
Viruses go up and then they go down. States that shut down before they had an outbreak are seeing an outbreak now. I don’t expect any of it will be as serious on the scale New York’s was.
The bigger question is will this be around two years from now. I tend to doubt it.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 8:33 am to Athanatos
quote:
How is that easier to believe than that Farr’s Law has just reached the end of its cycle in NY?
If we just admit this is Farr’s Law working as it always has, the central planners lose their power.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 8:35 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
better late than never.
media always sells fear and sex. why are you surprised now?
media always sells fear and sex. why are you surprised now?
Posted on 7/13/20 at 8:36 am to longwayfromLA
quote:
California will have more people die of COVID
No we wont. Stop making up shite
This is all about closing down the Convention and muh mail in ballots
Posted on 7/13/20 at 8:37 am to Ghost of Colby
quote:
What exactly should be learned from the N.Y. experience?
Well you just listed two things, so those. Beyond that I've listed several times the things I think we should be doing. Having learned from NY's tardiness and mishaps and the successful efforts to climb out of the hole, but more importantly the success of other countries.
quote:
Someone can claim their numbers are down because of herd immunity.
People can claim anything I suppose. The best information we have suggests that herd immunity has not taken hold broadly across NY.
quote:
Cases and deaths have dropped dramatically since he revered his policy in late May.
The problem with saying it's all about the nursing homes is that hospitals who didn't see many transfers from in nursing homes during the crisis are nevertheless seeing dramatically fewer COVID patients right now. Our main campus has 3 COVID patients in the house today. At our peak we had 100 times that many- all through the ED or transfers from other hospitals. There is just less disease out there right now. This is a good thing. Seems like we should learn something from that.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 8:37 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
We don’t even know if the tests are accurate or picking up pieces of dead virus. To hell with everything.
Posted on 7/13/20 at 8:40 am to roadGator
quote:
We are only a target because we have a Republican governor.
This is about the RNC and 2024. Dems want the RNC shut down for obvious reasons.
It’s also about a Gavin Newsome / Ron DeSantis potential match up in 2024, they are trying to damage DeSantis any way they can.
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