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Started By
Message
re: Louisiana COVID-19 - July 1, 2020 Update: 60,178 cases - 3,130 deaths - 752,088 tested
Posted on 7/1/20 at 1:07 pm to lsupride87
Posted on 7/1/20 at 1:07 pm to lsupride87
quote:
Let keep it very simple, i think you need it
4/1/20 = 100 current infections with average age of 75
6/1/20= 300 current infections with average age of 30
More infections, less deaths
I don't think anyone is arguing that we will see more deaths than April (at least not here)
just that we more than likely will see some level of uptick soon
thats it
2
Posted on 7/1/20 at 1:07 pm to lsupride87
Not only that but back in march/april the percentage of asymptomatic positives was prob near 0. Now it might be 25% if not more.
Posted on 7/1/20 at 1:09 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Now it might be 25% if not more.
oh I bet its more than that
I know of dozens of businesses that get 1 positive case and then force everyone to get tested and then get back way more asymptomatic positives
Posted on 7/1/20 at 1:09 pm to Salmon
quote:
I don't think anyone is arguing that we will see more deaths than April (at least not here)
just that we more than likely will see some level of uptick soon
thats it
Precisely
Much like we knew opening up would bring more infections and hospitalizations
This post was edited on 7/1/20 at 1:10 pm
Posted on 7/1/20 at 1:11 pm to Salmon
quote:And I disagree
I don't think anyone is arguing that we will see more deaths than April (at least not here)
just that we more than likely will see some level of uptick soon
thats it
I think less old and unhealthy are getting infected than before. I think the spread from long term health facilities will not return
Therefore, I do not forsee an uptick in deaths
Death rate is so extremely low in the younger and healthy population, the small rise in spread amongst that group will not make a material effect on death numbers
This post was edited on 7/1/20 at 1:12 pm
Posted on 7/1/20 at 1:12 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
How many of those deaths are actually a result of COVID?
Probably fewer than reported.
I think we have to accept the official data as accurate. Otherwise we are just writing our own personal fiction. Also, there is no reason to make up a fantasy about the data. Just deal with it honestly and things will be ok.
Posted on 7/1/20 at 1:14 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
How many deaths were missed before the first was declared?
Probably a lot
Posted on 7/1/20 at 1:16 pm to TBoy
quote:
I think we have to accept the official data as accurate.
I think it has to be accepted as inaccurate, but still can tell us overall trends.
Posted on 7/1/20 at 1:19 pm to tgrbaitn08
Friend was telling about one of their cases before Mardi Gras where a youngish girl fought for a few weeks, including a respirator, against what appeared to be what covid is now.
They never figured out what it was and the girl recovered and left their care.
They never figured out what it was and the girl recovered and left their care.
Posted on 7/1/20 at 1:21 pm to lsupride87
quote:
Death rate is so extremely low in the younger and healthy population, the small rise in spread amongst that group will not make a material effect on death numbers
Which is probably what happened the first time. Until it spread beyond that group.
Posted on 7/1/20 at 1:23 pm to fightin tigers
quote:And where me and you differ is, I dont forsee this second wave spreading back to that group, therefore I dont forsee a death uptick
Which is probably what happened the first time. Until it spread beyond that group.
Posted on 7/1/20 at 1:24 pm to fightin tigers
New numbers for Calcasieu Parish (Lake Charles area) were ridiculous today. 429 new cases. 20% positive.
Posted on 7/1/20 at 1:26 pm to lsupride87
quote:
And where me and you differ is, I dont forsee this second wave spreading back to that group, therefore I dont forsee a death uptick
Wont get to nursing homes so much this time but may get to unhealthy grandmas still living at home seeing their grandkids
Also plenty of fatties out and about at bars
Posted on 7/1/20 at 1:29 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Not only that but back in march/april the percentage of asymptomatic positives was prob near 0. Now it might be 25% if not more.
I asked this in PT thread, but you might know better. Do a lot of people contract the regular flu (and would otherwise test positive every year) but similarly have no symptoms?
I've never heard of that phenomenon, so I was wondering if it's something that typically occurs, or if this was a phenomenon relatively unique to this virus.
Posted on 7/1/20 at 1:36 pm to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
I've never heard of that phenomenon, so I was wondering if it's something that typically occurs, or if this was a phenomenon relatively unique to this virus.
I think pretty much every virus has some percentage of asymptomatic cases
Posted on 7/1/20 at 1:37 pm to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
I asked this in PT thread, but you might know better. Do a lot of people contract the regular flu (and would otherwise test positive every year) but similarly have no symptoms?
My wife and son tested positive for the flu last year. Me and my other son never had any symptoms. I went to a work meeting where i was sitting in a small conference room with 7 other guys for 2 days out of state. 2 of them had symptoms and tested positive for the flu the day after we all went back home.
Did the flu live on my clothes and body for the plane ride over, and the shower i took that night, before meeting with everyone the next morning?
This post was edited on 7/1/20 at 2:05 pm
Posted on 7/1/20 at 1:38 pm to tiger91
I’m friends with you. Initials are bmw
Posted on 7/1/20 at 1:39 pm to Draconian Sanctions
quote:
I think pretty much every virus has some percentage of asymptomatic cases
I would assume probably so, I was more asking about a significant percentage like this Covid seems to show.
Only times I've been tested for the flu, I've been at a doctors office sick as a dog already.
I was wondering how prevalent asymptomatic regular flu may be by comparison.
Posted on 7/1/20 at 1:42 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Also plenty of fatties out and about at bars
Even young fatties a'int dying. There are literally 70 deaths under 40. Unless you are 450 pounds you are fine.
The death rate is .28 for under 40 and .53 under 50. So less than one percent under 50.
This post was edited on 7/1/20 at 1:58 pm
Posted on 7/1/20 at 1:44 pm to LSU5508
Dumb Bell is going to roll back to phase 1 soon.
Bet.
Bet.
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