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Message
re: CDC Just released Influenza numbers for this years flu season
Posted on 3/18/20 at 1:17 pm to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
Posted on 3/18/20 at 1:17 pm to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
quote:
Care to comment on the Iceland general population testing showing 1% of all Icelanders have CV19?
There are a few issues with that. Was it an actual random sample? Were they using the same tests that they used in China, with high false-positive rates? If so, then it is easy to think you have 1% when it is actually much less than that.
Also, we don't know how recent these infections are. If they are still very recent symptoms might not have had time to show yet.
I'd like to see the data published somewhere, but I haven't found it, or found much analysis about it.
0
Posted on 3/18/20 at 1:19 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
At this point, we are trying to limit the number of infected and keep it below that
According to the fear mongers on TV 90% of people in US will contract it in the next two months
Posted on 3/18/20 at 1:22 pm to Sport Wood
Lot's of folks in this thread don't understand how exponential growth works.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 1:46 pm to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
quote:
If cases keep doubling every day from now until May 5th, over 13 trillion Americans will have coronas. Where will we get enough toilet paper?
The number of reported cases is not anywhere close to doubling every day, and much of the increase is due to more people that are already infected being identified by the increase in testing which is probably doubling every day, not because there are that many new infections.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 1:50 pm to Lonnie Utah
quote:
Lot's of folks in this thread don't understand how exponential growth works.
We are not seeing exponential growth in the number of new cases reported, much of the growth we are seeing is simply the result of the rate of testing increasing.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 1:56 pm to EA6B
Exactly
Posted on 3/18/20 at 1:59 pm to frogglet
quote:
If things continue growing at the current rate, in 28 days we would have ~60,000 deaths. That's a huge 'if' though, I'm not saying it will continue at that rate.
If you don't mind me asking, how did you arrive at that? Being serious here.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:02 pm to EA6B
quote:
We are not seeing exponential growth in the number of new cases reported
LINK
So if a logarithmic graph for total cases is showing a linear line upward at a constant rate, you think thats not exponential growth of overall cases?
Eta: on March 2nd there were 100 cases. On March 11th there were 1000.
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 2:05 pm
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:08 pm to jaytothen
quote:
I bet we don't hit 22,000 worldwide
We might hit a little over that, but I'll almost guarantee by mid-May we are all going to look back and say "what the hell have we just done?". The destruction of the economy is going to far outweigh deaths, and hell, I might die from it.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:20 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:
If you don't mind me asking, how did you arrive at that? Being serious here.
edit: Yeah, you were right on the money. My bad. I was using 25% daily growth but 20% was a better fit.
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 2:30 pm
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:32 pm to frogglet
quote:
Just a really simple exponential growth formula. Like I said, I'm not making a prediction that it actually would keep growing at that rate.
I was basing it off of 25% daily growth, but actually, looking back at the numbers it looks like since March 3, 20% daily growth is the best fit for deaths, whereas 25% is best fit for new cases.
So given 20% instead of 25%, the total count after 28 days would be only around 20k.
125 (current number of deaths according to the worldometer site) * 1.2 ^ 28 = 20,605
If I was using 25% daily growth instead it would be 125 * 1.25 ^ 28 = 64,623
Again, hopefully we don't see constant exponential growth like that. If all the lockdowns and other measures we've taken have done anything at all we won't.
edit: So yeah, you were right on the money. My bad.
So being as it seems youre a numbers guy, heres a little excercise. If you plot out the total cases and and total deaths on a logarithmic scale you will notice theres a near constant rate- implying an exponential curve.
If you plot it in excel its not hard to exrapolate that log slope and get within +/- 3% of both sets or data for every day since March 1st. Its actually kind of spooky. Have you tried this?
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:37 pm to Higgysmalls
quote:
According to the fear mongers on TV 90% of people in US will contract it in the next two months
Yeah but luckily we’ve posted a slideshow below. Whatever you do don’t let your family leave the house without doing #7!!!!!!
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:37 pm to NYNolaguy1
Yeah, I was just using the log scale on the worldometers site, I haven't tried plotting it out. But yes I noticed right away just how linear the log graph became after March 3, indicating steady exponential growth. One thing I also noticed was how the slope of our new cases was much steeper than Italy's new cases, which is pretty worrisome.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:40 pm to frogglet
quote:
Yeah, I was just using the log scale on the worldometers site, I haven't tried plotting it out. But yes I noticed right away just how linear the log graph became after March 3, indicating steady exponential growth. One thing I also noticed was how the slope of our new cases was much steeper than Italy's new cases, which is pretty worrisome.
You can do the same thing with deaths
. Its just a trend line, but at the current rate we are looking at 10x numbers every 9 days for total cases and 14 days for deaths.
March 2nd: 100 Cases
March 11th: 1,000 Cases
March 20th: 10,000 Cases (projected obviously, but it is right on track)
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:42 pm to Volvagia
I posted the exact same thing the other day and got roasted. That was a big IF, but I think the US is moving in a positive direction to help slow this thing down hopefully.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:43 pm to Volvagia
quote:
I find it hilarious though that you believe those numbers from the CDC (which are based on estimation and projection), but don’t want to believe the CDC when they say if nothing is done, it will be between 200k-1.7kk US dead.
CDC: Only the experts when I like what they say
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:45 pm to SabiDojo
quote:
But exponential growth and it’s going to get worse just wait a few more months everyone please stay home.”
And of course when the death toll isn’t astronomical they will just say it’s because of the ridiculous measures we have put in place.
Yeah, that’s not a bad thing If we can say that.. why do you guys constantly try to beat your chest?
Posted on 3/18/20 at 4:27 pm to Sport Wood
Hell no! I predict we only have 3500 US corona deaths. Of which 90% are over the age of 70
Posted on 4/6/20 at 11:35 am to SloaneRanger
quote:
No. It won't hit five figures for 2020.
This take aged well.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 11:38 am to PhiTiger1764
OT professors
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