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Recruiting classes revisted
Posted on 2/3/20 at 1:04 pm
Posted on 2/3/20 at 1:04 pm
So the atheltic has been revisiting and reranking recruiting classes now that 4 years have passed. They rank the classes based on the following
I wanted to post this as it shows why we were struggling towards the end of the miles era and why we are seeing rapid improvements across the board now.
2014-
2015-
2016-
For reference Alabama had the following rerank and hit ratio
2014-#2- 89% avg-3.31
2015-#1 -60% avg-3.19
2016-#2 -73% avg-3.48
You are not going to compete for titles with a adjusted average under 3. Now the 2017 is gonna be at or near the top. Add in key transfers and you see why we have been so much more successful.
The whole character thing that Jack has preached to the coaches is paying off big time and unlike our classes above, which were full of star at the top and nothing below, I expect our classes to be much more balanced going forward.
quote:
5 points: All-American, top-50 NFL draft pick
4: Multiyear starter, all-conference honors
3: One-year starter or key reserve
2: Career backup
0: Left the program, minor or no contribution
I wanted to post this as it shows why we were struggling towards the end of the miles era and why we are seeing rapid improvements across the board now.
2014-
quote:
13. LSU
Adjusted average: 2.72
Hit rate: 65%
Class rank in 2014: 2nd
Four-year record: 34-16
Top signees: RB Leonard Fournette, DB Jamal Adams, OL Will Clapp, DT Davon Godchaux, WR Malachi Dupre
Fournette was the nation’s No. 1 overall recruit and, as he proved in his three years at LSU, rightfully so. He was as can’t-miss as it gets. Adams was as good a leader as he was a playmaker and went two picks after Fournette in last year’s draft. The rest of this class? A mixed bag of solid starters, backups and disappointing transfers. The biggest miss was five-star LB Clifton Garrett, who left for a junior college after his freshman year and didn’t have the grades to join UAB.
2015-
quote:
17. LSU
Adjusted average: 2.71
Hit rate: 54 percent
Class rank in 2015: 5th
Four-year record: 36-14
Top signees: RB Derrius Guice, DE Arden Key, CB Donte Jackson, TE Foster Moreau, CB Kevin Toliver II
Attrition is the reason this class isn’t ranked among the best of the best. Ten signees ended up leaving the program, including five-star recruits Tyron Johnson and Maea Teuhema, and two more failed to qualify. So that was nearly half of their 25-man class.
Only six 2015 signees earned starts in 2018: Moreau, running backs Nick Brossette and Lanard Fournette, receiver Derrick Dillon, lineman Adrian Magee and long snapper Blake Ferguson. Les Miles did not land a long-term answer at quarterback in this class, either, because he had Feleipe Franks (who signed with Florida) committed for 2016. But this group did still yield several NFL players and three 2018 captains.
2016-
quote:
11. LSU
Adjusted average: 2.86
Hit rate: 67%
Class rank in 2016: 2nd
Four-year record: 42-11
Top signees: LB Devin White, CB Greedy Williams, CB Kristian Fulton, OL Lloyd Cushenberry, DL Rashard Lawrence
This was the final recruiting class of the Les Miles era. Did it yield some elite players? Absolutely. Devin White became the No. 5 pick in the 2019 draft, and Williams was a consensus All-American. Fulton emerged as a terrific corner once he was reinstated in 2018. And the leadership that Cushenberry, Lawrence and the members of this class provided helped turn the Tigers into national champions.
The only reason they’re ranked here is that one-third of the class ultimately did not pan out and left the program, and one-third ended up being reserves who haven’t made significant contributions. The Tigers’ next two recruiting classes produced most of the stars of their magical 2019 season, and there’s no question they will rate among the very best of future re-ranks. Ed Orgeron and his staff did a great job with the players they inherited, but they’ve clearly taken LSU’s recruiting, development and talent retention to a much higher level.
For reference Alabama had the following rerank and hit ratio
2014-#2- 89% avg-3.31
2015-#1 -60% avg-3.19
2016-#2 -73% avg-3.48
You are not going to compete for titles with a adjusted average under 3. Now the 2017 is gonna be at or near the top. Add in key transfers and you see why we have been so much more successful.
The whole character thing that Jack has preached to the coaches is paying off big time and unlike our classes above, which were full of star at the top and nothing below, I expect our classes to be much more balanced going forward.
Posted on 2/3/20 at 1:07 pm to lsu777
This will trigger some melts, but it definitely makes sense considering our production in those three years.
Posted on 2/3/20 at 1:09 pm to lsu777
This year and last year’s team overachieved by the metrics. Speaks to good coaching.
Posted on 2/3/20 at 1:10 pm to lsu777
We got 8 solid to great starters out of that 2016 class.
5 were major contributors on a NC team and 2 more were Greedy and Devin White.
That’s class had a top 10 finish and a NC in their Jr and Sr year.
I am Wondering which 10 classes where better?
Also is 2017 adjusted to be #1? 14 major contributors and possibly 4 first rounders in that class
5 were major contributors on a NC team and 2 more were Greedy and Devin White.
That’s class had a top 10 finish and a NC in their Jr and Sr year.
I am Wondering which 10 classes where better?
Also is 2017 adjusted to be #1? 14 major contributors and possibly 4 first rounders in that class
This post was edited on 2/3/20 at 1:12 pm
Posted on 2/3/20 at 1:10 pm to CaptainPanic
Might be a slight overstatement but I think LSU should always be in top 10 of recruiting. Is top 15 bad? No. Just have to maintain top 10 status year in and year out.
Posted on 2/3/20 at 1:11 pm to lsu777
Crazy that Dillon and Guice were in the same recruiting class Feels like Derrius is long gone but Dillon was still catching balls from Burrow this year
Posted on 2/3/20 at 1:14 pm to lsu777
I like the idea but there’s some obvious flaws to their system. If Patrick Queen is pick 50 he’s a 5 star but if he’s pick 51 he’s a 3 star since he backed up Devin White for two years?
A guy that starts two years for a shitty team like Vandy is automatically a 4 star? Yeah nahhh
A guy that starts two years for a shitty team like Vandy is automatically a 4 star? Yeah nahhh
Posted on 2/3/20 at 1:15 pm to Paul Allen
quote:I mean considering there is no instate competition for recruiting & being centrally located in the South, they should absolutely be Top 10 each year. Maybe we'll see that change with O at the helm.
Might be a slight overstatement but I think LSU should always be in top 10 of recruiting
Posted on 2/3/20 at 1:15 pm to lsu777
great information.
I am not surprised, Miles would have been much better off staying in the big 12 or CUSA, or Sunbelt.
I am not surprised, Miles would have been much better off staying in the big 12 or CUSA, or Sunbelt.
Posted on 2/3/20 at 1:16 pm to lsudave1
quote:
Crazy that Dillon and Guice were in the same recruiting class Feels like Derrius is long gone but Dillon was still catching balls from Burrow this year
Early entry vs. Redshirt senior.
Posted on 2/3/20 at 1:21 pm to lsu777
By the time Les left, QB, WR, OL & LB were so far below old standards that it left O with quite the chore
Posted on 2/3/20 at 1:25 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
By the time Les left, QB, WR, OL & LB were so far below old standards that it left O with quite the chore
Yep. Bug time fall off with depth.
Posted on 2/3/20 at 1:25 pm to Lester Earl
quote:The linebackers were just fine.
By the time Les left, QB, WR, OL & LB were so far below old standards that it left O with quite the chore
Posted on 2/3/20 at 1:29 pm to lsu777
I said on this board repeatedly that coaches aren't stupid. Star rankings are great, but it doesn't take coaches long to figure who will REALLY show up, STAY and contribute without becoming head cases, just being lazy, or getting kicked out.
Coaches in a position to be picky simply get soft on recruiting that 4-5 star potential head case.
When recruits start to sour on a school, THOSE coaches are then forced to go ahead and take those guys.
And while Miles knob slobberers can never admit it, recruits had figured him out. And, he was having to reach.
Coaches in a position to be picky simply get soft on recruiting that 4-5 star potential head case.
When recruits start to sour on a school, THOSE coaches are then forced to go ahead and take those guys.
And while Miles knob slobberers can never admit it, recruits had figured him out. And, he was having to reach.
Posted on 2/3/20 at 1:29 pm to 1ranter1
I agree, like Standford ranked number 1 in one of the classes. It isn't perfect but it shows how depth plays a major role.
And yea queen leaving this year hurts alot and that will be reflected in overall class rank next year.
For reference
Clemson ranked as follows
2016
2015-
2014-
Clemson's hit ratio on 2016 class is fricking insane.
And yea queen leaving this year hurts alot and that will be reflected in overall class rank next year.
For reference
Clemson ranked as follows
2016
quote:
1. Clemson
Adjusted average: 3.68
Hit rate: 96%
Class rank in 2016: 11th
Four-year record: 55-4
Top signees: LB Isaiah Simmons, DT Dexter Lawrence, CB Trayvon Mullen, OL John Simpson, OL Tremayne Anchrum
2015-
quote:
2. Clemson
Adjusted average: 3.18
Hit rate: 79 percent
Class rank in 2015: 9th
Four-year record: 55-4
Top signees: DT Christian Wilkins, OL Mitch Hyatt, DE Clelin Ferrell, DE Austin Bryant, WR Deon Cain
2014-
quote:
6. Clemson
Adjusted average: 2.75
Hit rate: 71%
Class rank in 2014: 16th
Four-year record: 50-7
Top signees: QB Deshaun Watson, WR Artavis Scott, WR Hunter Renfrow, LB Kendall Joseph, OL Taylor Hearn
Clemson's hit ratio on 2016 class is fricking insane.
This post was edited on 2/3/20 at 1:30 pm
Posted on 2/3/20 at 1:34 pm to CaptainPanic
quote:
The linebackers were just fine.
Only because of Dave. When Dave got here we had more scholly kickers than scholly linebackers.
Les is a great guy who did some great things but as alluded to by others and as the stats bear out, he was signing classes with a few stars and then a bunch of guys who flamed out. Those classes show that trend over and over. For every LF, there were 2-3 guys who never contributed at all.
It was all boom or bust and the hit ratio was not very good towards the end. Especially. It compared to the rating coming out.
As far as the overall star rating....say what you want but there is a reason the top of 247 composite talent charts show the teams competing year in and year out.
Recruiting matters, but as alluded to, you have to make sure they are a fit and character matters as much or more than anything else.
Posted on 2/3/20 at 1:51 pm to CaptainPanic
quote:
The linebackers were just fine.
Nah the depth was rather bad for a 3-4 defense
Posted on 2/3/20 at 2:04 pm to CaptainPanic
quote:
The linebackers were just fine.
...with the exception that we had more kickers than linebackers according to Aranda.
Posted on 2/3/20 at 2:38 pm to lsu777
quote:
The whole character thing that Jack has preached to the coaches is paying off big time and unlike our classes above, which were full of star at the top and nothing below, I expect our classes to be much more balanced going forward.
Well except for 2018 class. Some good players from that class, but a bunch transferred as well.
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