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247 Recruiting Team Ranking ?
Posted on 1/28/20 at 8:47 am
Posted on 1/28/20 at 8:47 am
I have been wondering this for years since I have a degree in math. 
What is 247's justification for Jordan Burch for example being worth 13 points to S Carolina and yet only 7 points added to LSU if he signs? I think it is goofy if they are tarot carding whether he would be a starter/impact player or not but maybe that is it. Anybody read an explanation why the SAME player can be worth dramatically more to one team vs another team in "scoring"?
What is 247's justification for Jordan Burch for example being worth 13 points to S Carolina and yet only 7 points added to LSU if he signs? I think it is goofy if they are tarot carding whether he would be a starter/impact player or not but maybe that is it. Anybody read an explanation why the SAME player can be worth dramatically more to one team vs another team in "scoring"?
6
Posted on 1/28/20 at 8:49 am to LSUTiger2020
because our class is better so he adds less points
Posted on 1/28/20 at 8:56 am to LSUTigers778
Yep, your answer seems to work. I checked Clemson and Alabama and Georgia and they would benefit less than LSU. BTW, I think that is an 
methodology but that isn't your problem. Thanks for the explanation.
methodology but that isn't your problem. Thanks for the explanation. Posted on 1/28/20 at 8:58 am to LSUTiger2020
Because in reality, these places are pretty much The Psychic Friends Network: Bunch of wannabes emailing each other "Do you think he's good? I think he's good, but (insert wanna-be rival) thinks he may or may not be good. In my honest evaluation, there's a 55% chance he picks a program by ESD."
Where else can people pay money to read other people's guesses about the future, with no money-back guarantees whether they're right, wrong, or just flat-out making shite up.
Where else can people pay money to read other people's guesses about the future, with no money-back guarantees whether they're right, wrong, or just flat-out making shite up.
Posted on 1/28/20 at 9:08 am to 19
quote:
Because in reality, these places are pretty much The Psychic Friends Network: Bunch of wannabes emailing each other "Do you think he's good? I think he's good, but (insert wanna-be rival) thinks he may or may not be good.
lmao did you even read the post? He's asking about the team score calculation. Also, I know people like to shite on the rankings teams for these sites, but some of them really do know their shite. The issue is simply that there's not enough money in the industry to pay for the number of people necessary to get a legitimate report on every dude. I know Barton Simmons has a big hand in the 247 rankings, and that dude (who played safety at yale) definitely knows his stuff. People like you just love to whine when their guys aren't ranked as highly as they wish.
Posted on 1/28/20 at 9:16 am to 19
quote:
Where else can people pay money to read other people's guesses about the future, with no money-back guarantees whether they're right, wrong, or just flat-out making shite up.
Stock market analyst.
Weather services.
Climate Change alarmists.
Just to name a few other professions that prognosticate with no accountability.
Posted on 1/28/20 at 9:19 am to LSUTiger2020
Posted on 1/28/20 at 9:19 am to GumboPot
quote:
Stock market analyst.
To be fair they just want to drive retail trading volumes
Posted on 1/28/20 at 9:21 am to LSUTiger2020
quote:
Here is “The Formula“ they use:
eam Ranking Explanation
where c is a specific team's total number of commits and Rn is the 247Composite Rating of the nth-best commit times 100.
Explanation
In order to create the most comprehensive Team Recruiting Ranking without any notion of bias, 247Sports Team Recruiting Ranking is solely based on the 247Composite Rating.
Each recruit is weighted in the rankings according to a Gaussian distribution formula (a bell curve), where a team's best recruit is worth the most points. You can think of a team's point score as being the sum of ratings of all the team's commits where the best recruit is worth 100% of his rating value, the second best recruit is worth nearly 100% of his rating value, down to the last recruit who is worth a small fraction of his rating value. This formula ensures that all commits contribute at least some value to the team's score without heavily rewarding teams that have several more commitments than others.
This post was edited on 1/28/20 at 9:26 am
Posted on 1/28/20 at 9:44 am to GumboPot
quote:
Stock market analyst. Weather services. Climate Change alarmists.
All draw from previous data. Are their anomalies? Of course, but the science behind all of these things are legit. Just because you can’t understand something doesn’t mean it’s not real.
Posted on 1/28/20 at 9:58 am to J2thaROC
quote:
Of course, but the science behind all of these things are legit. Just because you can’t understand something doesn’t mean it’s not real.
Oh, I understand it quite well.
Posted on 1/28/20 at 10:03 am to J2thaROC
Their criteria is flawed. All players should be rated regardless of the other players committed to a certain school. It would seem a good player would be even better.
For instance a player like Grant Delpit would be even more effective roaming the LSU secondary behind the talented defensive line and linebackers than he would be at Ole Miss where he would need to clean up more plays their front seven did not execute.
For instance a player like Grant Delpit would be even more effective roaming the LSU secondary behind the talented defensive line and linebackers than he would be at Ole Miss where he would need to clean up more plays their front seven did not execute.
Posted on 1/28/20 at 10:17 am to LSUTiger2020
One one hand it does kinda make some sense
If South Carolina signs him that elevates their class in a big way. His way more important to South Carolina than Clemson
Like a movie who lands a big actor to play the lead is going to improve a lot more than a movie than lands a big actor for an ensemble cast.
On the other hand, if this kid is good he’ll be just as good at Clemson as he is at South Carolina.
If South Carolina signs him that elevates their class in a big way. His way more important to South Carolina than Clemson
Like a movie who lands a big actor to play the lead is going to improve a lot more than a movie than lands a big actor for an ensemble cast.
On the other hand, if this kid is good he’ll be just as good at Clemson as he is at South Carolina.
Posted on 1/28/20 at 10:29 am to GumboPot
Thanks, I took several statistic courses but to be fair, I have forgotten a lot of that knowledge. However, I tried a "class calculator" experiment on LSU's class by subtracting Gilbert which does seem to sort of go with what they say below...which BTW I still think is wrong. A player's points worth should not have anything to do with the other players signed...it should be based on HIS talent alone and should not be determined by his "teammates".
Subtracting Gilbert added to Ricks points, added even more to Ojulari's points and added to White's points in the total. So I understand what they are trying to achieve but have no idea why they think that is legitimate.
quote:
"Each recruit is weighted in the rankings according to a Gaussian distribution formula (a bell curve), where a team's best recruit is worth the most points. You can think of a team's point score as being the sum of ratings of all the team's commits where the best recruit is worth 100% of his rating value, the second best recruit is worth nearly 100% of his rating value, down to the last recruit who is worth a small fraction of his rating value.'
Subtracting Gilbert added to Ricks points, added even more to Ojulari's points and added to White's points in the total. So I understand what they are trying to achieve but have no idea why they think that is legitimate.
Posted on 1/28/20 at 10:49 am to SammyTiger
quote:
If South Carolina signs him that elevates their class in a big way. His way more important to South Carolina than Clemson
Like a movie who lands a big actor to play the lead is going to improve a lot more than a movie than lands a big actor for an ensemble cast.
IMO, adding a player to a roster can have a multiplicative effect when added to a roster that already has big players at other positions.
At least one position that benefits from this is wide receiver. This can easily be seen in that if you have two big wide receivers, the defense has a harder time focusing on two instead of one, though you can bracket both but that opens up some other things. If you have 3, there’s almost no way to cover all of them consistently without severe openings in your defense.
I think defensive line is one of the positions where this comes into effect as well, as if I have only one big defensive line talent, you can scheme and design blocking scheme and plays that take him out of the play. However, if I have two bookend defensive ends, you’ve got no choice but to go at one or the other. The only way to stop them both is misdirection and quick passes.
Posted on 1/28/20 at 11:02 am to HurricaneTiger
I agree 100% with your logic but seriously, you think that the recruiting services are remotely qualified to go down that road and access team's talent, the DC, his scheme, etc? They weren't even accurate enough to judge Jordan Jefferson out of HS or hundreds of other players over the years. I'm not arguing with their math theory....I'm arguing with the relevance to the way they rate players.
This post was edited on 1/28/20 at 11:03 am
Posted on 1/28/20 at 1:00 pm to LSUTiger2020
quote:
I agree 100% with your logic but seriously, you think that the recruiting services are remotely qualified to go down that road and access team's talent, the DC, his scheme, etc? They weren't even accurate enough to judge Jordan Jefferson out of HS or hundreds of other players over the years. I'm not arguing with their math theory....I'm arguing with the relevance to the way they rate players.
If you take in the vacuum of the class, and add points for ‘complementary’ positions they could definitely do it.
However, I certainly agree that the way they rate players can range from very accurate to completely arbitrary.
Posted on 1/28/20 at 3:19 pm to HurricaneTiger
Why scale the recruits?
1) Only 11 can play at one time.
2) Only 22 starters
3) The class with the best player in each position group ( OG, OT, TE, WR, RB , QB , DT, DE, LB , S, CB) and 4 three stars should be ranked ahead of 30 mid four stars.
Typically, a team has only 50 to 60 contributors or about 15 each year. So a team that properly recruits, develops, and retains only needs to sign 20 or so each year even accounting for early entries
This recruiting game is not football in reality, so all we need are rules for ranking that accommodates various class sizes. Whether that is a progressive scale like 247 or just comparing the top 15 players are both viable and have been used over the last twenty five years.
1) Only 11 can play at one time.
2) Only 22 starters
3) The class with the best player in each position group ( OG, OT, TE, WR, RB , QB , DT, DE, LB , S, CB) and 4 three stars should be ranked ahead of 30 mid four stars.
Typically, a team has only 50 to 60 contributors or about 15 each year. So a team that properly recruits, develops, and retains only needs to sign 20 or so each year even accounting for early entries
This recruiting game is not football in reality, so all we need are rules for ranking that accommodates various class sizes. Whether that is a progressive scale like 247 or just comparing the top 15 players are both viable and have been used over the last twenty five years.
Posted on 1/29/20 at 10:29 am to 1BIGTigerFan
I don’t know about 247 but we had a freakin Math professor analyze Rivals one year and showed they even fudge basic addition etc to bump certain schools. The numbers just didn’t up, rivals had no response. You can guess the school
Posted on 1/29/20 at 10:49 am to TutHillTiger
Yeah, and the allegation has been made countless times that alumni from a certain university literally started Rivals. If that is true, those guys are as unbiased as Herbstreit calling an Ohio State game.
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