re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

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Mexican swine flu? The one that originated just across the border and you’re comparing it to a virus from half way around the world?

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Follow the conversation, if possible.

I brought up swine flu to discuss how a pandemic that killed over 10k here in the US had a minimal impact on the daily lives of the majority of Americans. That was in response to the CDC higher up who suggested we should be preparing for a material impact to our lives.

Swine flu is a very relevant example for Americans.

@globaltimesnews

After 14 % of recovered #COVID19 patients tested positive for the virus in later checkups in #Guangdong, concerns raising whether recovered patients can still infect others, local authorities said it needs further testing to determine if they become a source of infection again

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New cases coming in from various Middle East countries and it appears that many can be traced back to Iran. So once again, we have official numbers not matching up with what we are seeing in real time. Total infections inside of Iran would probably need to be much higher than what is being reported to generate the number of deaths and exported cases that we are seeing. I'm not claiming conspiracy or cover up but events on the ground in Iran probably caught officials off guard and now they are trying to play catch up.

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The below was just posted on a preprint site and hasn't been through peer-review but they use pretty standard methodology.

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During the interval between February 19 and 23, 2020, Iran reported its first
43 cases with eight deaths. Three exported cases originating in Iran were identified, suggesting a
underlying burden of disease in that country than is indicated by reported cases. A large
epidemic in Iran could further fuel global dissemination of COVID-19.

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UAE, Lebanon, and Canada ranked 3rd, 21st, and 31st, respectively, for outbound air travel
volume from Iran in February 2019. We estimated that 18,300 (95% confidence interval: 3770 –
53,470) COVID-19 cases would have had to occur in Iran, assuming an outbreak duration of 1.5
months in the country, in order to observe these three internationally exported cases reported at
the time of writing.

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LINK

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We estimated that 18,300 (95% confidence interval: 3770 –
53,470) COVID-19 cases would have had to occur in Iran,

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I love statistics. Eh, somewhere between 3,800 and 53,000, and there is a 5% chance it's outside of that.

I think that study's conclusion is what we've suspected around here as cases get tracked to Iran.

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I haven't been afraid to go on the record, and be wrong, about the ultimate numbers we'll see when the dust settles. A week or so ago I think I said I'd be surprised if we cross the 10,000 deaths mark, but I could be mistaken. Regardless, I still think that number would be surprising. Things have slowed down considerably in China and that's nearly 20% of the world's population.

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The cat is out of the bag or the horse has left the barn

Either way, we are basically in the "wait and see what happens" phase of this event (or, if you prefer, the we will no a lot more after the model runs on Saturday phase ). Infectious disease modelers are looking at 40 - 60% of the worlds population contracting the virus and that will produce some disturbing numbers. However, I'm still hopeful that Hong Kong and Singapore are better examples of what we will see moving forward vs what we are seeing in Iran and Italy.

Interesting take from someone who has worked with the coronavirus for 30+ years.
LINK

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Dr. Pierre Talbot of the Institut national de la recherche scientifique in Laval, a scientist who has worked with the coronavirus for more than 30 years and an expert in the field, has said from the beginning of the epidemic that he believes it will be contained in a few months.

“The SARS epidemic lasted eight months and then it disappeared,” he said. “My prediction is that this one will, too.”

The fact that the focus of the infection has shifted from China “is scaring people,” he said. “The stock market is down. People seem to be panicking. People should not panic.”

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I hope he knows what he's talking about and this fizzles out without too much damage.


And here is a surprisingly rational article from Ohio:
LINK

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A recent paper from the Chinese Centers of Disease Control and Prevention analyzed more than 70,000 cases of the coronavirus in China and showed that about 81 percent of cases were mild. The analysis found a death rate of 2.3 percent.

“The great majority of people would not need urgent medical care from a hospital or an ER,” said Dr. Keith Armitage, medical director for the University Hospitals Roe Green Center for Travel Medicine.

“It would be medicine for fever, like Tylenol, fluids to make sure you’re hydrated and only a small minority of people would need hospital care, particularly for shortness of breath that might need oxygen.”

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“This looks to be a bad, heightened cold — I think that’s a rational way of thinking about it,” said Matthew Frieman, a virologist at the University of Maryland School of Medicine, told the Post. “Not to diminish its importance — it’s in the middle between SARS and the common cold.”

The most severe cases are generally reported first, but as time goes on, milder case reports will roll in, which could lower the death rate.

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And instead of welcoming foreign aid, the Chinese government will probably just discipline the brave medical staff who wrote this cry for help.

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I don't think the Chinese government will be able to make a move against these people for awhile. Li Wenliang died not that long ago and that angered some of their citizens.

Although I've seen reports that the Chinese government has kinda co-opted respect for doctors and nurses to get people motivated to do their part to beat the coronavirus.

I hope also hope that this is more based on past information since they got there at the end of January.

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UPDATE: The article was censored in China within a couple of hours of publication.

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Or not. FFS China. Is this really what you need to be doing at this point?

NM