New Poll out in AZ

Legggoooooooooo mates

the blue wave in action

For those that didn't want to take time to read, apparently a Green Party candidate is now in the picture (Angela Green) and is taking 4% in polling. That, and a rise in Trump's approval rating are the key factors.

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Nov 6 melt will be glorious.

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I think it will be bigger than 2016

God bless the Green Party

I'm not saying Kavanaugh has not given the Rs a bump. I'm absolutely NOT saying this.

However, these dramatic shifts over the past few days must, by definition, represent the polling organizations "normalizing" their polls to make them more accurate leading up to the election.

They clearly push exaggerated polls over the Summer (just like in 2016, for example), to attempt to generate this aura of inevitiability. This is because independents and undecided want to vote for the ultimate winner - this is human nature.

And that is what was happening this year. Now the veil is pulled back, we're looking behind the curtain and there was no blue wave to begin with.

Most Presidents lose votes the first mid-term, particularly in the House. Rs do better (because the alarmism about their being all these monstrous things pushed by Dems, particularly the past 30, 40 years) than Ds (who can't run on what they are actually going to do and their enacted policies are often highly unpopular) and lose typically 11 votes (versus 35 to 40 that Ds usually lose).

So, if Rs hold the House losses to 6 to 8 - that MUST be interpreted as a win. Ds were never going to take the Senate, that was a fantasy that was barely even mathematically possible - just based on the slate of seats available this time. As a reminder, only 1/3 of the Senate is up for election every 2 years.

Senate was never a doubt for me, but the House seats that have lines redrawn in PA and other seemingly piddling races can chip away significantly at the majority in the House.

quote:

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I'm not saying Kavanaugh has not given the Rs a bump. I'm absolutely NOT saying this.

However, these dramatic shifts over the past few days must, by definition, represent the polling organizations "normalizing" their polls to make them more accurate leading up to the election.

They clearly push exaggerated polls over the Summer (just like in 2016, for example), to attempt to generate this aura of inevitiability. This is because independents and undecided want to vote for the ultimate winner - this is human nature.

And that is what was happening this year. Now the veil is pulled back, we're looking behind the curtain and there was no blue wave to begin with.

Most Presidents lose votes the first mid-term, particularly in the House. Rs do better (because the alarmism about their being all these monstrous things pushed by Dems, particularly the past 30, 40 years) than Ds (who can't run on what they are actually going to do and their enacted policies are often highly unpopular) and lose typically 11 votes (versus 35 to 40 that Ds usually lose).

So, if Rs hold the House losses to 6 to 8 - that MUST be interpreted as a win. Ds were never going to take the Senate, that was a fantasy that was barely even mathematically possible - just based on the slate of seats available this time. As a reminder, only 1/3 of the Senate is up for election every 2 years.

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This analysis is spot on IMO.

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Green Party

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The gift that keeps giving !