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re: Sports Betting
Posted on 7/18/18 at 11:12 pm to matthew25
Posted on 7/18/18 at 11:12 pm to matthew25
quote:
so what does the (-115) and (-105) mean on your first example?
your juice.
-115 = $115 to win $100, $57.50 to win $50, etc
-105 = $105 to win $100, $52.50 to win $50
-110 is the standard.
If it's + juice, it's the other way around
+120 = $100 to win $120, $50 to win $60, $1 to win $1.20
+1500 = $100 to win 1500
0
Posted on 7/18/18 at 11:53 pm to thatguy777
quote:
I love when ppl say baseball is easy bc you just bet pitchers blah blah blah. Well you’re typically laying -250 when an all star pitcher is on the bump and if they lose, what happens?
Good players are a little more sophisticated than that bud....
Posted on 7/19/18 at 8:36 am to thatguy777
You have no earthly idea what you’re talking about.
It’s a substantially less liquid market than some others; there’s a reason limits are lower.
It’s a substantially less liquid market than some others; there’s a reason limits are lower.
Posted on 7/19/18 at 10:13 am to LSUTigers00884
quote:
UConn +24 (-105)
their top performer passing and rushing was a senior qb fyi. their offense may struggle all year
ucf lost a lot on defense, but returns almost all of their offense (top wr)
i think that one is fair
you are talking about a uconn team that #99 in points scored and #124 in points allowed
Posted on 7/19/18 at 12:31 pm to LSUTigers00884
To answer a bunch of questions that were raised in this thread. I’ve followed sports gambling for about 20 years now. I don’t gamble much and only for entertainment reasons. I have a few friends involved in sports books and a few that work as touts (people who get paid for gambling advice).
Understanding gambling and odds and being able to pick winners are somewhat different skill sets IMO and I often find people good at one but not both.
Handling a bank roll and securing odds are as important as picking games well. Because of juice most gamblers find themselves in a situation where they have to be at least 70% accurate to break even.
As for how lines are determined most people aren’t in agreement on that. How you answer that question will somewhat determine how you react to a line. I’ve already read people on here suggest there are experts with a crystal ball setting lines cause they “know” these teams involved. linesmakers are more like social scientists, they are predicting how people will bet after the line is set. Lines are a product of public perception.
Anyway one site that used to be very good for sports betting chatter is Covers.com. Still have to dig through the forums to find the better posters, but some damn good cappers on there.
Favdog.com is a great site for creating contests for gambling. I play in a few high stake season long contests on there each year.
Understanding gambling and odds and being able to pick winners are somewhat different skill sets IMO and I often find people good at one but not both.
Handling a bank roll and securing odds are as important as picking games well. Because of juice most gamblers find themselves in a situation where they have to be at least 70% accurate to break even.
As for how lines are determined most people aren’t in agreement on that. How you answer that question will somewhat determine how you react to a line. I’ve already read people on here suggest there are experts with a crystal ball setting lines cause they “know” these teams involved. linesmakers are more like social scientists, they are predicting how people will bet after the line is set. Lines are a product of public perception.
Anyway one site that used to be very good for sports betting chatter is Covers.com. Still have to dig through the forums to find the better posters, but some damn good cappers on there.
Favdog.com is a great site for creating contests for gambling. I play in a few high stake season long contests on there each year.
Posted on 7/19/18 at 2:18 pm to Jp1LSU
I personally believe if you're already looking at lines and liking particular plays before camp has started, camp injuries and starters named, get ready to lose money.
Posted on 7/19/18 at 3:02 pm to Jp1LSU
Let us know how you do baw
Posted on 7/19/18 at 3:11 pm to Louie T
quote:
I haven’t done as much MLB betting in the last couple of seasons due to time constraints, but I’ve made a substantial amount of money betting MLB props.
MLB is much, much, much easier to model than other sports. It’s strays closer to being a discrete event between a hitter & pitcher than other sports like basketball or football which are continuous simulations with thousands of moving parts. If you’re good with stats & excel, it’s not terribly difficult to backtest to determine correlation coefficients.
ETA: LOL at whoever said baseball is the hardest sport to win.
generally speaking, i think professional bettors have the most success with MLB and college basketball.
Posted on 7/19/18 at 4:37 pm to Louie T
quote:
I haven’t done as much MLB betting in the last couple of seasons due to time constraints, but I’ve made a substantial amount of money betting MLB props
Back in the early days of the first inning runs prop Y/N, there were consistently 4-5 huge overlays (6-8%) on the YES each night. The YES% was highly correlated to the O/U for the game and it was common to find the wrong side favored due to bettor’s misconceptions about the prop. Using Neteller to quickly move money across 6-7 outs and it was easy pickings.
Posted on 7/19/18 at 5:48 pm to Jp1LSU
I don’t why you got downvotes.
But I believe you’re 100% right. Vegas must capitalize on public perception in order to make money.
They need 50/50 on each side to make 10%. Any swing on that number (60/40) can affect their earnings by lowering their profit to less than 10%.
But I believe you’re 100% right. Vegas must capitalize on public perception in order to make money.
They need 50/50 on each side to make 10%. Any swing on that number (60/40) can affect their earnings by lowering their profit to less than 10%.
Posted on 7/19/18 at 6:04 pm to LSUTigers00884
quote:Well that's the thing, when there is such a swing more often than not they end up on the right side. So sure 50/50 is easy money by just living off the juice, but sometimes they set hard lines and don't move the number even if one side is getting so much action. And they obviously come out ahead in the long run.
Any swing on that number (60/40) can affect their earnings by lowering their profit to less than 10%.
Posted on 7/19/18 at 6:06 pm to thatguy777
quote:He didnt say any of that. If you follow his post, he clearly stated that there's less moving parts (variables) in mlb than there are in other sports, which makes modeling it easier than other sports. That is the argument he is making. And that's probably why analytics are more advanced in mlb in general.
It’s fact and it’s really not debatable. I love when ppl say baseball is easy bc you just bet pitchers blah blah blah. Well you’re typically laying -250 when an all star pitcher is on the bump and if they lose, what happens? Right.
Posted on 7/19/18 at 6:23 pm to LSUTigers00884
The objective of the sportsbook is to maximize profit without exposing themselves to huge amounts of downside risk. That often isn't 50/50 split with a 10% rake.
Posted on 7/19/18 at 10:03 pm to LSUTigers00884
When you think the spread is too good to be true and a sure lock one way, double down and bet the opposite.
Posted on 7/19/18 at 10:12 pm to 4LSU2
quote:
When you think the spread is too good to be true and a sure lock one way, double down and bet the opposite.
'Yeppers!!!!!!
Posted on 7/20/18 at 8:32 am to 4LSU2
quote:
When you think the spread is too good to be true and a sure lock one way, double down and bet the opposite.
Blindly making a bet for no other reason than "Vegas must know more than me" is not a good way to become a profitable bettor.
Posted on 7/20/18 at 11:21 am to DallasTiger45
But sometimes you can find guys that consistently hit the correct side of the spread 43-45% of the time, which can be great to fade.
Posted on 7/21/18 at 4:24 pm to Jp1LSU
I went to favdog.com to see what you were talking about, and it was a French bulldog website?
Posted on 7/21/18 at 6:32 pm to lsuguy13
I just saw that. It’s favordog.com. A big group of friends of mine create contests amongst ourselves. Sometimes as many as 50 people in a contest with a structured pay out.
Basically (like for college football) each player has a set bankroll and you can bet lines or totals on as many games as you’d like over the course of the season. Players can’t buy in if they go broke and can’t join in later. We do same contest for bowl season, college basketball, and NCAA tourney. Our buy in usually between $50-$100. Bankroll is usually $2500 (fake money).
No, I’ve never finished first.
I like it because it’s the excitement of betting every game all season with a relatively inexpensive cost. It’s for entertainement’s sake.
Basically (like for college football) each player has a set bankroll and you can bet lines or totals on as many games as you’d like over the course of the season. Players can’t buy in if they go broke and can’t join in later. We do same contest for bowl season, college basketball, and NCAA tourney. Our buy in usually between $50-$100. Bankroll is usually $2500 (fake money).
No, I’ve never finished first.
I like it because it’s the excitement of betting every game all season with a relatively inexpensive cost. It’s for entertainement’s sake.
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