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Sports Betting
Posted on 7/17/18 at 6:40 am
Posted on 7/17/18 at 6:40 am
Does anyone here on Money Talk bet on sports games?
Curious to hear what smart people who know college football or NFL have to say about it.
There are a few games I’m looking at that have a bad spread set by Vegas IMO.
A college football team is similar to a stock. Both have history and profit / loss “statement” if you know what to look at.
Curious to hear what smart people who know college football or NFL have to say about it.
There are a few games I’m looking at that have a bad spread set by Vegas IMO.
A college football team is similar to a stock. Both have history and profit / loss “statement” if you know what to look at.
13
Posted on 7/17/18 at 7:02 am to LSUTigers00884
quote:
There are a few games I’m looking at that have a bad spread set by Vegas IMO.
Bet them. Best time to get good lines is "way too early" time.
It's pretty crazy how often Vegas is dead nuts on though.
The smart money MT opinion is probably not to gamble more than you can easily afford to lose because you never know as much as you think you do.
This post was edited on 7/17/18 at 7:04 am
Posted on 7/17/18 at 7:42 am to LSUTigers00884
quote:
There are a few games I’m looking at that have a bad spread set by Vegas IMO.
Posted on 7/17/18 at 7:57 am to LSUTigers00884
I bet quite a lot.
I don’t bet much NFL or CFB, bc they’re pretty liquid markets. There are much smarter people than I devoting more time to them.
I don’t bet much NFL or CFB, bc they’re pretty liquid markets. There are much smarter people than I devoting more time to them.
Posted on 7/17/18 at 7:58 am to LSUTigers00884
For college basketball and football, get to know the small/mid major conferences very well. That’s where you can make money (especially college basketball).
Posted on 7/17/18 at 8:37 am to LSUTigers00884
quote:
A college football team is similar to a stock. Both have history and profit / loss “statement” if you know what to look at.
Betting on a game = binary option
If you are proficient at trading in and out of those types of vehicles then you would probably be good at sports betting. But ofc binary option trading is largely illegal.
Posted on 7/17/18 at 9:11 am to LSUTigers00884
For beginners, your best chance is the first couple of weeks. After that, Vegas is on the money (for the most part).
TIP:
majority of Suckers take the favorites.
pick 3/4 games and bet only those
stay away from live betting
If you have more teasers/parlays than individual bets...your book loves you.
TIP:
majority of Suckers take the favorites.
pick 3/4 games and bet only those
stay away from live betting
If you have more teasers/parlays than individual bets...your book loves you.
This post was edited on 7/17/18 at 9:18 am
Posted on 7/17/18 at 9:15 am to bstew3006
quote:
For beginners, your best chance is the first couple of weeks. After that, Vegas is on the money (for the most part)
Yep. I usually start off really strong and then end up at break-even or a little down towards the end of year. Last year there were 3 or 4 separate occasions where the 1/2 pt screwed me. Vegas is scary good at picking spreads from about the 3rd or 4th week.
Posted on 7/17/18 at 9:26 am to Triple Bogey
quote:
Yep. I usually start off really strong and then end up at break-even or a little down towards the end of year. Last year there were 3 or 4 separate occasions where the 1/2 pt screwed me. Vegas is scary good at picking spreads from about the 3rd or 4th week.
Haha, yea the HOOK will bite you.
I smoked CFB reg season, best year I've ever had. I'll have to review my picks in post history (posted picks every Saturday morning), but I think I finished around 63%-67% win, 75/115 or something. As far as bowl season...got my arse handed to me, less than 50%. The spread rarely came into play. Blow outs either way.
This post was edited on 7/17/18 at 9:35 am
Posted on 7/17/18 at 9:39 am to bstew3006
Agreed, early season is where you’ll find the softest lines. They tighten up as the season progresses. In 2016, I didn’t place a single bet after week 7 of college football.
Bowl games are a crap shoot. Best thing to do is look at bowl ats numbers for the head coaches (not the team). Tougher these days with so many coaches jumping around all the time.
Bowl games are a crap shoot. Best thing to do is look at bowl ats numbers for the head coaches (not the team). Tougher these days with so many coaches jumping around all the time.
Posted on 7/17/18 at 9:40 am to bstew3006
i used to bet primarily for entertainment back when i had better access to bookies/mafioso types...
actually, that was the primary reason i discovered "forums"...
..insider info seemed to be much less controlled and monetized.
actually, that was the primary reason i discovered "forums"...
..insider info seemed to be much less controlled and monetized.
Posted on 7/17/18 at 10:00 am to LSUTigers00884
quote:if you go in with this mentality, you'll get crushed. Always try to underestand why a line that seems off to you "makes sense."
There are a few games I’m looking at that have a bad spread set by Vegas IMO.
Posted on 7/17/18 at 11:13 am to castorinho
Sports betting is a wonderful way to map out your own cognitive biases, then learn to identify and correct them. It can be an expensive process though.
Posted on 7/17/18 at 11:24 am to LSUTigers00884
quote:
There are a few games I’m looking at that have a bad spread set by Vegas IMO.
TIP:
If it sounds to good to be true...IT IS!
Posted on 7/17/18 at 11:27 am to bstew3006
quote:Don’t do this if you can accurately quantify an edge. If you can’t come up with a pretty good approx of edge, you prob shouldn’t be sports betting.
pick 3/4 games and bet only those
Posted on 7/17/18 at 11:51 am to LSUTigers00884
If you’re serious about sports betting to consistently make money, I’d plan on either learning how to model effectively or doing an absolute frickton of research.
If you’re in a state where you can play DFS, I’d recommend that way before sports betting.
If you’re in a state where you can play DFS, I’d recommend that way before sports betting.
Posted on 7/17/18 at 12:01 pm to DallasTiger45
Gambling to make money isn’t fun. You’re betting shite no one else wants to watch betting at low limits.
This post was edited on 7/17/18 at 3:35 pm
Posted on 7/17/18 at 12:22 pm to Louie T
quote:
Don’t do this if you can accurately quantify an edge. If you can’t come up with a pretty good approx of edge, you prob shouldn’t be sports betting.
Wanna know how I know you don't bet or win?
This post was edited on 7/17/18 at 12:36 pm
Posted on 7/17/18 at 12:43 pm to bstew3006
quote:
Wanna know how I know you don't bet or win?
Imagine thinking that being able to quantify an edge means someone isn't a profitable bettor
This post was edited on 7/17/18 at 12:44 pm
Posted on 7/17/18 at 12:53 pm to DallasTiger45
I get what he's saying about being able to quantify an edge. I just don't know many guys that "make money" betting more than a handful of games in a day or weekend. My point was find 3/4 you like, see an edge and only play those, be disciplined. Trying to quantify an edge in more than 3/4 for a beginner, is a losing strategy. To many people bet to bet. This post was edited on 7/17/18 at 12:58 pm
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