re: Tesla is just months from a total collapse, says hedge-fund manager

I don't have the cash to risk, but I've been saying that LEAPs are the way to go. Nice trade! Are you holding firm or profit taking and re-entry at a higher DCA?

i'm certain i'm not the only person that saw this in OP's article...

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Thompson manages $25 million and his Tesla TSLA-5.47% short is the fund’s biggest position. To be fair, he’s been betting big against Tesla for years, which, of course, means he’s endured some brutal stretches.

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ok.
let's see.. some random fund manager is short a shitload of TSLA stock and wants it to go down more...
makes sense..


while i probably wouldnt touch TSLA until they report positive earnings (for 3-5 consecutive quarters)....but this article doesnt pass the BS test.


actually, i'd treat this article as a contrarian indicator (do the opposite).
if TSLA can hold around it's 50 day avg (on monthly chart) it might be worth going long for a med term play.

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their financial health is deteriorating more with every car they produce.

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Yeah, but is Tesla even a car company any more? It's certainly not called Tesla Motors anymore. I get the impression that they long ago realized they weren't going to be successful solely as a car company and are just trying to hang on long enough to complete the pivot from "car company" to "Battery and solar panel manufacturer that also makes cars" while hoping the demand for those batteries and panels increases.

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trying to hang on long enough to complete the pivot from "car company" to "Battery and solar panel manufacturer that also makes cars

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I disagree. The shareholders are suing TSLA over said solar panels, and I don't blame them. Class Action Suit It was one of the worst acquisitions in recent history, and it was very shady given who benefited from it at Solar City. It's when I started not liking TSLA and their leadership. In conclusion, solar panels will never be a profitable business for TSLA. If anything batteries and storage would be, but I've heard more negatives than positives on that front.

just an fyi..

TSLA now up almost 2% for week/month and over 7% today on above avg volume (sitting on both the 200 week and 50 month moving averages is pretty darn good support...there is accumulation going on right now)

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With the good news yesterday about not having to do another capital raise this year

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And you believe that?

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With the good news yesterday about not having to do another capital raise this year I think it will be back above 300 next week.

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They will have another one before the end of the year without a doubt. They still have a ton of expansion projects that need to be completed at their current production facilities and they will need to build another factory ASAP if they want to begin producing the model Y in 2019 like they have suggested. I expect they will officially announce the Y towards the end of the summer and start raising money right after and I also think they will raise the deposits to $2000-2500 to try and get some more money up front from buyers.

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This reads like a satire

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Wish it was. They’ve still got a ton of work left at the Fremont factory to get it running at full capacity because according to Elon it’s only 30% done. They finally started construction again last week but they’re behind schedule (shocking I know) LINK /

Also they will need more capacity once the Y launches because they think the demand will be much higher and it most likely will. Tesla’s estimates are a million cars a year by 2020-2021 after the Y launches and scales to full capacity so by their own estimates they need to have almost 10 times their current production capacity, which is roughly 2000 cars/week (model 3/s/x,) to produce those numbers.

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Does Tesla have some great profit margin? They'd arguably be priced to perfection even if they were pumping out 1mil cars per year now

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I honestly don’t know their cost/KWH versus what they’re selling it for but tesla’s car batteries are extremely efficient and relatively cheap compared to their competitors, so much so that they all buy Teslas and de-construct them to see how they’re doing it. Also One of Elon’s big selling points with shareholders was they should have increased margins on the model 3 because of the simplicity of the design and production process, although it doesn’t seem like it’s very simple right now.

I do know They make alot of money on the upgrades since it is expected that most buyers will pay 5K for the premium interior edition of the vehicle and it’s estimated around 30/40% of buyers also upgrade to the enhanced autopilot which costs 5K. Additionally, Some people will spend an extra 3K for the full self-driving feature but I really don’t get the appeal at this point since it’s not even close to operational.

Keep in mind that when someone pays 5K for the autopilot “upgrade” there is no hardware upgrade involved with the vehicle, they are all produced with the capability to turn on the feature at a later time if you want it so Tesla makes 5k for basically unlocking a feature that’s already on the car. If you don’t pay for it on delivery then you have to pay an additional 1000 to unlock it later on.