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Shoot your free throws underhand; Trade all your 1st round picks; Never punt (Podcast)
Posted on 6/19/17 at 2:31 pm
Posted on 6/19/17 at 2:31 pm
Posted on 6/19/17 at 2:36 pm to tigerpawl
I haven't listened to the podcast so I don't know his explanation but, assuming you have good form, it's better to shoot your free throws overhand.
And "never punt" is a case of being fooled by statistics. Everything is situational.
And "never punt" is a case of being fooled by statistics. Everything is situational.
This post was edited on 6/19/17 at 2:37 pm
Posted on 6/19/17 at 2:39 pm to tigerpawl
quote:
Never punt
4th down inside your own 5 and it's a one possession game...
Yeah, lets go for it.
Posted on 6/19/17 at 2:43 pm to Walking the Earth
quote:Barry states nobody walks around with their hands over their head. It's unnatural. His stats: LINK According to Barry, one season, he missed 9 free throws. In Chamberlain's 100 point game (record), he was 28/32 from the line (record).
it's better to shoot your free throws overhand.
Posted on 6/19/17 at 2:43 pm to tigerpawl
quote:
Never punt
Dumb. This is extremely situational
Posted on 6/19/17 at 2:48 pm to The Pirate King
quote:
Dumb. This is extremely situational
Not in Madden.
Posted on 6/19/17 at 2:56 pm to Walking the Earth
quote:
And "never punt" is a case of being fooled by statistics. Everything is situational.
That's what smart people like Gladwell call the fallacy of the masses.
Emotional - general on the field - decisions - that look like you're being smart because it's "situational" but you're not playing chess as we fool everyone into thinking football is...you're playing the odds and repetition.
Situational matchups and dissecting who is on whom is the most overrated micro-management thing in football. You're not Einstein...you yell at people to tackle people. Saban or Carroll or even Belichick aren't geniuses. There was a great book years ago (forgot the title) but basically said what we were all thinking - this hero genius worship of football coaches is pathetic. I don't care if you're Bill Walsh. It's not quantum physics. It's a football play. And at its most complex is still pretty simple compared to lots of other things.
Gladwell and others have exposed the tall-tale adoration of coaches - especially basketball coaches.
This post was edited on 6/19/17 at 2:57 pm
Posted on 6/19/17 at 2:58 pm to Broski
quote:
4th down inside your own 5 and it's a one possession game...
Yeah, lets go for it.
He's probably trying to be extreme to get his point across, but y'all are right, it's situational. Here's a heuristic chart that would make Les Miles' head explode:
Posted on 6/19/17 at 3:00 pm to mizzoubuckeyeiowa
quote:Most people are terrible at statistics, patterns, and probability.
you're playing the odds and repetition.
Posted on 6/19/17 at 3:01 pm to Broski
quote:quote:
Never punt
4th down inside your own 5 and it's a one possession game...
Yeah, lets go for it.
It's hyperbole, not literal.
Posted on 6/19/17 at 3:01 pm to Lou Pai
So any 4th and 2 you go for no matter where you are on the field.
That doesn't seem very situational to me.
That doesn't seem very situational to me.
Posted on 6/19/17 at 3:05 pm to tigerpawl
quote:
Most people are terrible at statistics, patterns, and probability.
Right, especially dumbass coaches that made their careers out of something other than being smart. Former players, good talent evaluators, even good playcallers. And dumbass journalists who may be even worse. Also fans who are, on average, halfway on the bell curve by definition, and ultimately governed by emotion.
People are bad at understanding statistics, which is made worse by people being risk averse by nature. That's why you have stupid hard and fast rules about sitting players in "foul trouble" or even conventional wisdom about how to handle 4th down.
Posted on 6/19/17 at 3:07 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:No, it bottoms out at 4th and 1
So any 4th and 2 you go for no matter where you are on the field.
That doesn't seem very situational to me.
Posted on 6/19/17 at 3:09 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:
So any 4th and 2 you go for no matter where you are on the field.
That doesn't seem very situational to me.
That is, by definition, situational, since you just gave me two characteristics about the situation.
LINK there's the article if you want to read into how he arrived at that. I'm not claiming it's gospel, but it makes sense to me. Author is a retired Naval Aviator (USNA grad) that has done work for ESPN.
Posted on 6/19/17 at 3:13 pm to tigerpawl
quote:
Barry states nobody walks around with their hands over their head. It's unnatural. His stats: LINK According to Barry, one season, he missed 9 free throws.
On 169 attempts.
One year, Jose Calderon only missed 3 free throws on 154 attempts and he shot overhand
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf once missed 10 free throws on 229 attempts and he shot overhand
Here are the Top 8 seasons as far as FT % in NBA history:
1. Jose Calderon - 98.1% = OVERHAND
2. Calvin Murphy - 95.8% = OVERHAND
3. Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf - 95.6% = OVERHAND
4. Ray Allen - 95.2% = OVERHAND
5. Jeff Hornacek - 95.0% = OVERHAND
6. Mark Price - 94.8% = OVERHAND
7. Mark Price - 94.7% = OVERHAND
8. Rick Barry - 94.7% = UNDERHAND
Best career free throw shooters in NBA history:
1. Steve Nash = .9043 = OVERHAND
2. Mark Price = .9039 = OVERHAND
3. Stephen Curry = .9010 = OVERHAND
4. Peja Stojakovic = .8948 = OVERHAND
5. Chauncey Billups = .8940 = OVERHAND
6. Ray Allen = .8939 = OVERHAND
7. Rick Barry = .8931 = UNDERHAND
8. Calvin Murphy = .8916 = OVERHAND
9. Scott Skiles = .8891 = OVERHAND
10. J.J. Redick = .8881 = OVERHAND
Seems like the unnatural position is the better technique
This post was edited on 6/19/17 at 3:14 pm
Posted on 6/19/17 at 3:14 pm to mizzoubuckeyeiowa
quote:
Saban or Carroll or even Belichick aren't geniuses.
No they are not but neither is Gladwell and they probably understand the flow of a football game and correct playcalling better than he does.
Sometimes the jocks know what they're doing and the math guys don't.
This post was edited on 6/19/17 at 3:16 pm
Posted on 6/19/17 at 3:29 pm to Lou Pai
quote:
So any 4th and 2 you go for no matter where you are on the field.
That doesn't seem very situational to me.
quote:Which one of these 2 "situations" has the highest probability of converting, irrespective of the clock? And why...
That is, by definition, situational, since you just gave me two characteristics about the situation.
Posted on 6/19/17 at 3:36 pm to SPEEDY
quote:
Best career free throw shooters in NBA history:
1. Steve Nash = .9043 = OVERHAND
2. Mark Price = .9039 = OVERHAND
3. Stephen Curry = .9010 = OVERHAND
4. Peja Stojakovic = .8948 = OVERHAND
5. Chauncey Billups = .8940 = OVERHAND
6. Ray Allen = .8939 = OVERHAND
7. Rick Barry = .8931 = UNDERHAND
8. Calvin Murphy = .8916 = OVERHAND
9. Scott Skiles = .8891 = OVERHAND
10. J.J. Redick = .8881 = OVERHAND
Seems like the unnatural position is the better technique
Seems like you're not too good with statistics. Consider the sample sizes. The amount of players that shot overhanded is well into the thousands. The amount of players that shot underhanded is probably 10 or 20. With an exponentially larger player pool, of course the top 10 is going to be mostly overhanded shooters.
Posted on 6/19/17 at 3:38 pm to SPEEDY
Well I'm not sure the correct answer but considering there's been probably 2,000/1 ratio of overhand/underhand it's not surprising the highest number are overhand. They have far more opportunities
Posted on 6/19/17 at 3:40 pm to Walking the Earth
quote:
And "never punt" is a case of being fooled by statistics. Everything is situational.
Another thing, would the current statistics utilized to make this statement ("never punt"), which are presumably derived under the framework of where teams are punting most of the time, going to carry over to a framework where teams are not punting?
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