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re: Ray Kurzweil. Google's Director of Engineering predicts Singularity by 2029
Posted on 3/17/17 at 9:22 am to Big_Slim
Posted on 3/17/17 at 9:22 am to Big_Slim
quote:
But seriously 12 years is a laughable timeline.
Think about this. The iPhone hasn't even been out for 10 years. We now already have legit VR at a consumer level thats just going to get better from here. IBM's watson, quantum computing, smart cars, homes, and the IoT are all a reality today.
12 years isn't a huge stretch.
This post was edited on 3/17/17 at 9:26 am
1
Posted on 3/17/17 at 9:25 am to SidewalkDawg
Sorry I forgot we weren't supposed to share relevant opinions on a message board 
All these tech guys do is figure out when they are going to die most likely and set the singularity date for then. Ray is absolutely obsessed with immortality and just makes these predictions out of his own wishful thinking. Kind of like how Elon Musk said a couple years ago humans would be living on Mars in 10 years. Not just land on Mars, live on Mars.
All these tech guys do is figure out when they are going to die most likely and set the singularity date for then. Ray is absolutely obsessed with immortality and just makes these predictions out of his own wishful thinking. Kind of like how Elon Musk said a couple years ago humans would be living on Mars in 10 years. Not just land on Mars, live on Mars.
Posted on 3/17/17 at 9:27 am to musick
quote:
12 years isn't a huge stretch.
There will be huge moral battles that will be fought over AI, surveillance, and privacy.
We might have the ability to do these things in 10 years, but my guess is they be blocked by moral and social quagmires.
Just look at what happened with cloning and stem cells.
Posted on 3/17/17 at 9:32 am to musick
quote:
I have a feeling we may have the choice to live forever in a machine or die once we get closer to 60 years old.
Going to be an interesting dilemma.
Especially if spouses disagree. Would you do one or the other against your wishes out of loyalty? I would be down for it, but my SO is tech-averse and I'm pretty sure she would not go for this.
Posted on 3/17/17 at 9:36 am to musick
quote:
This guy has 140+ tech predictions since 1994 with an 86% success rate.
Uhhh...link? Kurzweil is a smart guy, generally. But he's also crazy.
quote:
Singularity
I'm not even sure it's coming honestly, but it is absolutely terrifying.
I prefer Musk's more measured approach to this as well. If we lay out the probable outcomes of the event, 90% of those are the end of humanity, and I get Kurzweil's fascination, because like I said he's crazy, but for the normal, sane person to be excited strikes me as super odd and a massive misunderstanding of what could happen.
Posted on 3/17/17 at 9:40 am to Big_Slim
quote:
All these tech guys do is figure out when they are going to die most likely and set the singularity date for then. Ray is absolutely obsessed with immortality and just makes these predictions out of his own wishful thinking.
It's not just Ray. They are ALL obsessed with immortality.
Posted on 3/17/17 at 9:44 am to Big_Slim
We don't even understand a fraction of the complexity of the human brain right now, not a chance in hell we'll be able to replicate that, so...
This is spot on.
quote:
Once we can have a conversation with an Alexa type thing (actual conversation, pas Turing test), master quantum computing and start getting really good at mapping the brain, I'll start getting nervous.
This is spot on.
Posted on 3/17/17 at 9:47 am to 50_Tiger
I bet this will be in his 14%..
Posted on 3/17/17 at 9:48 am to kywildcatfanone
quote:
Sheldon Cooper believes this will happen within 100 years.
And, he's really smart, so It's probably true.
Posted on 3/17/17 at 9:54 am to 50_Tiger
quote:
Augmentations are gonna be the future of humanity!
only if humans choose poorly. I think people are becoming too smart to let this happen.
Posted on 3/17/17 at 9:59 am to musick
quote:
his guy has 140+ tech predictions since 1994 with an 86% success rate.
I would like to see that list.
Posted on 3/17/17 at 10:05 am to musick
youtube video of Kurzweil making this prediction 10 months ago
This post was edited on 3/17/17 at 10:06 am
Posted on 3/17/17 at 10:06 am to musick
That's a good 10-20 years before I expected it. Hell, that's only 12 years from now.
Posted on 3/17/17 at 10:10 am to SidewalkDawg
quote:
We might have the ability to do these things in 10 years, but my guess is they be blocked by moral and social quagmires.
When the Singularity hits, it hits. It can't be blocked. It is totally inevitable and will be the most significant day in human history.
Posted on 3/17/17 at 10:12 am to musick
A little nit-picky, but as I understand it, when guys like Kurzweil talk about the Singularity, they aren't talking about when humans merge their conciseness with machines, they are talking about the point in technological advancement beyond which we have absolutely no way to predict what will happen. In this case, the point at which machines achieve "greater than human" intelligence. Most experts agree once that happens, all bets are off, as it will most likely set off an intelligence explosion, where AI goes from just barely smarter than the average human to 100s or 1000s of times smarter in very short order (hours to weeks). Something 1000s of times smarter than humans is essentially god-like - we have no way to predict what it would, or could, do.
Posted on 3/17/17 at 10:17 am to musick
quote:
Humans will merge their brains with machines in 12 years.
I'm still waiting on my flying car...
Posted on 3/17/17 at 10:17 am to musick
Singularity is not "merging humans with machines"
"The singularity" is when machines are so advanced they can improve their technology at an exponential phase that the interval between changes is not discernible. Ushering in essentially AI, the inability to differentiate reality from non-conscious stimulation.
It goes like this:
You build a computer in 1985. To double the power f that computer take 5 years until a more powerful machine happens. Then you have a more powerful machine 2.5 years later.
Then you apply new computational power to making new machines. Then these machines make new machines to make better machines.
Essentially to the point that the chip or processesor or android or computer you just made immediately channels that power to make a NEW improvement. So incremental tech advances no longer take years, nor months, nor day, but HOURS. Then seconds. Then the limit approaches zero and it is constant exponential growth.
Like using IBM Watson to make a better Watson. Then that makes a better Watson. Then that one then the next then the next. So advanced they can assess and make and produce improvements instantly.
Frightening stuff when you grasp the concept
And an eventual reality
"The singularity" is when machines are so advanced they can improve their technology at an exponential phase that the interval between changes is not discernible. Ushering in essentially AI, the inability to differentiate reality from non-conscious stimulation.
It goes like this:
You build a computer in 1985. To double the power f that computer take 5 years until a more powerful machine happens. Then you have a more powerful machine 2.5 years later.
Then you apply new computational power to making new machines. Then these machines make new machines to make better machines.
Essentially to the point that the chip or processesor or android or computer you just made immediately channels that power to make a NEW improvement. So incremental tech advances no longer take years, nor months, nor day, but HOURS. Then seconds. Then the limit approaches zero and it is constant exponential growth.
Like using IBM Watson to make a better Watson. Then that makes a better Watson. Then that one then the next then the next. So advanced they can assess and make and produce improvements instantly.
Frightening stuff when you grasp the concept
And an eventual reality
Posted on 3/17/17 at 10:18 am to EastcoastEER
Our Final Invention is a good cautionary book on AI. Talks a bit about Kurzweil and his notoriously optimistic predictions on AGI/ASI and what it will mean for humanity.
Posted on 3/17/17 at 10:19 am to OMLandshark
quote:
When the Singularity hits, it hits. It can't be blocked. It is totally inevitable and will be the most significant day in human history.
In order for the Singularity to hit, we must first develop strong AI.
I'm saying that we will have to navigate all kinds of social, political, and moral landscapes before we are even allowed to flip that switch.
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