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re: Paul Mainieri Happy He Went With His Gut

Posted on 3/7/17 at 8:55 am to
Posted by LSU_10
Baton Rouge
Member since May 2015
60 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 8:55 am to
Right
Gut instinct over data.......
And performance of players over the years.
The revolving door on certain positions is all gut too I'm sure
Posted by Gray Tiger
Prairieville, LA
Member since Jan 2004
36512 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 9:08 am to
quote:

Right
Gut instinct over data.


How does gut instinct fueled by observing the player's tendencies over a period of time in practice,(I'm confident that you have done that) followed by similar observations in game situations work for you?

Wouldn't that qualify as data?

Posted by upgrade
Member since Jul 2011
13268 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 9:09 am to
quote:

The revolving door on certain positions is all gut too I'm sure


What positions?
Posted by ForeverLSU02
Albany
Member since Jun 2007
52189 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 9:40 am to
quote:

I wish Paul had a gut feeling on when to pull a pitcher.

Posted by Kim Jong Ir
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2008
52834 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 9:58 am to
quote:

, it's just I see lots of posts that imply that PM doesn't get a guy out in time and EVERY time it's when the pitcher fails to pitch out of a jamb. hindsight is 20/20


Thing is that when it is time and he makes the decision, there is often not even anyone sitting in the bullpen area. Why not have a pitcher or 2 out there stretching and maybe soft-tossing so when the time comes they can be ready sooner? Like others have said, it would not cost you a pitcher and the reliever could take the mound a batter or 2 earlier.
Posted by Kim Jong Ir
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2008
52834 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 10:01 am to
quote:

observing the player's tendencies over a period of time in practice
quote:

Wouldn't that qualify as data?


Data gleaned from actual game performances would seem to be more useful data, but that is just my opinion. Of course, there is always the wind, which is clearly data.
This post was edited on 3/7/17 at 10:10 am
Posted by Madking
Member since Apr 2016
48627 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 10:36 am to
Only an idiot wouldn't have Romero in the lineup. Last season his home run pct was the third highest at LSU since the bats were changed. Only Katz's Sr. Year and Mahtooks Sr. Year were better. Pulmonary loves to pat himself on the back for doing things he should do.
This post was edited on 3/7/17 at 10:43 am
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
36613 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 11:17 am to
quote:

So you were listening to Rantz last night, huh?

Rantz is using hindsight to make his point. During the game, who would have a problem with Gilbert taking the last innings? Nobody, of course. You're already 0-1 on the weekend and we needed that win. Poche maybe could have gone an extra inning, but he went longer than planned the weekend before for obvious reasons. Only 3 relievers were "burned" by Sunday: Bain, Reynolds, and Gilbert. That's pretty darn good considering Lange's start. Hell, I'd take that EVERY weekend


No, I made the same point yesterday.

Sure you want to win the game Saturday, but with two innings left and you are ahead 4-0 you don't normally put in your #2 reliever (and yes I consider Gilbert the strong #2 behind Newman).

I would have saved gilbert for the third game and used him after Walker unless Peterson leaked oil Saturday.

And I'm not playing Monday morning coach, I questioned this move Saturday.

Now in defense of Mainieri this may have all been scripted and all along he was going with Gilbert after Poche' no matter what. This certainly may have been th case and I have no problem with that kind of thinking. He's may have been using the Shriner's series as a mini spring training, but when the SEC weekends start, we will see more strategy.

And yes considering how poorly Lange did to burn only two guys after that was pretty good, and in fact we were battling back at the end and had a shot to tie or go ahead Friday if memory serves.

Bain and Reynolds held the line pretty good, but these are two valuable veterans not rookies. We should be able to count on them to burn up innings whether we are ahead or behind.

Posted by ell_13
Member since Apr 2013
85335 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 11:22 am to
quote:

I would have saved gilbert for the third game and used him after Walker
And we could have been down 3 runs by then and used our #2 reliever in a pointless spot. Only up 4 with 2 innings to go vs an undefeated top 25 team while you're already down 0-1 on the weekend means you use your #2 guy.
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
36613 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 11:33 am to
quote:

And we could have been down 3 runs by then and used our #2 reliever in a pointless spot. Only up 4 with 2 innings to go vs an undefeated top 25 team while you're already down 0-1 on the weekend means you use your #2 guy


Err no. Two innings to go up 4 you don't use your closer or your #2 unless something happens especially when you have another game left in a big series.

And to further reinforce my theory of Mainieri scripting the series, Poche was lifted after throwing 84 pitches. He could have easily gone another inning, but he lifted him as to not push him. In an SEC series Poche' would have continued on into the 8th inning.

If a kid can't come in and hold a four run lead with two innings to go, then how can you expect him to hold a two run lead with three innings to go?

And another reason I wanted Gilbert after Walker is because it was a certainty that Walker wouldn't go as far as Poche's Walker then Gilbert with Newman left is a killer set up on a Sunday.
Posted by Gray Tiger
Prairieville, LA
Member since Jan 2004
36512 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 11:40 am to
quote:

Data gleaned from actual game performances would seem to be more useful data, but that is just my opinion. Of course, there is always the wind, which is clearly data.



Both of those are useful data points. What Maineri called "going with his gut" was actually a good example of applying useful data points. From his observations of what happens in practice, game situation results, the tendency of the player to perform in a game situation as he did in B.P., the player's actual performance prior to the game, etc. all led to making the decision.

What a lot of people call going with a gut feeling or a hunch is often merely the unconscious application of data and the results of the application of that data. That is one thing that separates the successful from the mundane, regardless of profession.

Posted by GFunk
Denham Springs
Member since Feb 2011
14967 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 11:41 am to
doubleb is spot on. Gilbert is the clear #2 heading into the weekend out of the BP. I get that there's a script when it comes to certain moves during the course of a weekend (ie-starting rotation, catching/DH roles, etc), but reliever roles and scripts are somewhat out of the window when your clear Friday Night guy gets the hook in the 2nd. You go situationally game-by-game at that point.

Which means with a 4-run lead in a very comfortable game, you can get Peterson a look there in order to make it to Sunday with as many bullets in your gun to close out with 2/3 and holding the rope from the bullpen as possible.

Poche gives you the luxury of going with a Peterson and saving your #2 reliever to get you to your #1 closer on Sunday. If you ask me, if we went with Gilbert Saturday because of a script, that's a huge error on the part of our coaching staff.

...and as others have alluded to, it's way more than a glaring problem...it's an expectation at this point. Paul just doesn't handle the pitching well in late games. Hell in some situations he makes questionable decisions on who to start when (Lange's Frosh season in Omaha there was a lot of discussion about why they waited to throw him in Game 2), though that's been more muted.

Paul's done a good job here. I think he's a good coach. But I think there are great college baseball coaches out there at programs who aren't at LSU's level. Unfortunately, anytime Paul has felt a bit of heat, he's pulled an okey doke on our AD and our Administration that get them flying through the air, breathless with extension requests that lock a good coach into a great job.

I'll repeat...a good coach...in a great job. So in reality, we're stuck with these blind spots he has as a coach. Beyond that, we're stuck with him and his ego trying to prove to us how much he knows about the game and how smart he is...which I think fuels some of the overthinking and mishandling of our staff at times.

Good Coach at a Great Job. Oh well...
Posted by ell_13
Member since Apr 2013
85335 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 11:54 am to
quote:

If a kid can't come in and hold a four run lead with two innings to go, then how can you expect him to hold a two run lead with three innings to go?
You're being a little hypocritical here along with making a point that's completely irrelevant. I think everyone expected TP to hold a 2-run lead based on his 4 other appearances.
quote:

Poche was lifted after throwing 84 pitches. He could have easily gone another inning, but he lifted him as to not push him.
I've already said as much. But I think he would have also gone longer had he not been extended the weekend before.
quote:

Walker then Gilbert with Newman left is a killer set up on a Sunday.
It's good any day, but if it's available on Sunday, things either went really good or really bad the two days before. And that's what we had here. We lost game one and had to use up 2 experienced guys. We go with TP and he gives up a single run in the 8th, you likely go to Newman in the 9th right? Or even worse, they give you the performances they gave on Sunday and you lose to Baylor and all you have left on Sunday is Gilbert. What Gilbert did on Saturday was secure a win and saved Newman. He and TP should have been plenty good enough for a win Sunday.
Posted by ell_13
Member since Apr 2013
85335 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 11:56 am to
quote:

but reliever roles and scripts are somewhat out of the window when your clear Friday Night guy gets the hook in the 2nd. You go situationally game-by-game at that point.
Bain and Reynolds saved our asses. We still lost the game though. That's the situation. So we still had plenty of pen but HAD to win that Saturday game if we had a chance to take 2 of 3. That means Gilbert. 4 runs is NOT comfortable in a park where the ball flies so well and the gaps are huge with a short porch in LF. That was pretty evident throughout the entire weekend which saw a ton of runs late in games.
This post was edited on 3/7/17 at 11:57 am
Posted by Keltic Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2006
19489 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 12:13 pm to
Skip was famous for walking out to the mound when a pitcher was getting pounded & telling him "you got us into this shite, get us out". And he would walk back to the dug out. By the time the SEC rolled around, his staff was battle tested & hardened. CPM has said numerous times he & Coach Dunn script every pitching rotation for every situation. Dunn has as much input as CPM. And both know 1000)% more than anyone here. Especially "I-am-famous-for-my-100%-hindsight" Rantz.
Posted by ell_13
Member since Apr 2013
85335 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 12:14 pm to
quote:

CPM has said numerous times he & Coach Dunn script every pitching rotation for every situation.
Link?
Posted by josh336
baton rouge
Member since Jan 2007
78173 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 12:34 pm to
quote:

Unfortunately, anytime Paul has felt a bit of heat, he's pulled an okey doke on our AD and our Administration that get them flying through the air, breathless with extension requests

Ugh, what? He has done this once, and that was after a cws appearance and super regional hosting years. And he was getting paid less than caldwell. That extension was deserved
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
36613 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 1:33 pm to
quote:

You're being a little hypocritical here along with making a point that's completely irrelevant. I think everyone expected TP to hold a 2-run lead based on his 4 other appearances.


Hypocritical? where did I ever post that I expected Peterson to shut anyone of the caliber of TT or Baylor down? I thought it a good test for the young man to pitch in Houston with a 4 run lead v Baylor and even a tough task to pitch with a three run lead v TT.

quote:

I've already said as much. But I think he would have also gone longer had he not been extended the weekend before


Good, we agree on something. And this is why I threw it out there that it may be all scripted to fit the time of the year, and it wasn't scripted to win necessarily.

quote:

It's good any day, but if it's available on Sunday, things either went really good or really bad the two days before. And that's what we had here. We lost game one and had to use up 2 experienced guys. We go with TP and he gives up a single run in the 8th, you likely go to Newman in the 9th right? Or even worse, they give you the performances they gave on Sunday and you lose to Baylor and all you have left on Sunday is Gilbert. What Gilbert did on Saturday was secure a win and saved Newman. He and TP should have been plenty good enough for a win Sunday.


That's not what we had here, Mainieri used up Gilbert in a game where we had a four run lead.

If Peterson gives up a run in the 8th v Baylor a lot depends on how he pitched the inning. If he sat down 3 of 4 and made one mistake and a guy homered then I would trot him out in the 9th. and have Newman warming. A three run lead and my pitcher is getting 3 of four batters out then I'm not overly concerned.

Now if Peterson had walked a couple, gave up some hard hits and was saved by a screaming line drive double play then that's a different story.

But I'm not playing what if. When Gilbert came in I asked the question, why Gilbert here? That's my point. It wasn't a tough situation demanding an excellent pitcher.
Posted by josh336
baton rouge
Member since Jan 2007
78173 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 1:36 pm to
Thats debateable, a 4 run lead isnt that safe against a good hitting team IMO
Posted by ell_13
Member since Apr 2013
85335 posts
Posted on 3/7/17 at 1:46 pm to
quote:

If Peterson gives up a run in the 8th v Baylor a lot depends on how he pitched the inning.
Without a win in game 1, 100% he goes with Newman to get the save. He's your closer for that exact reason.
quote:

But I'm not playing what if.
But you are. You are playing "what if" from the perspective of our outlook on Saturday as if you knew the TT game would be close and we could have used Gilbert. Everything I'm saying is based on my belief that a 4-0 lead vs a top 25 team with 2 innings left is a close enough and important enough game (having already lost game 1) that you use a pitcher like Gilbert to secure that win. If we disagree there, then everything else is moot.
This post was edited on 3/7/17 at 1:47 pm
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