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Posted on 11/11/16 at 11:42 am
Posted on 11/11/16 at 11:42 am
(no message)
This post was edited on 11/10/23 at 4:14 am
18
Posted on 11/11/16 at 11:43 am to DelU249
at the uncle responsePosted on 11/11/16 at 11:43 am to DelU249
Nate Pyrite has ZERO cred today.
Posted on 11/11/16 at 11:44 am to roadGator
Nate Milk has to protect his empire of dork.
Posted on 11/11/16 at 11:45 am to DelU249
I came within 48 points of 270 and spent $500 million less than Hillary.
Posted on 11/11/16 at 11:45 am to DelU249
Ole Silver got his arse acetoned the other night - and in 2014.
Posted on 11/11/16 at 11:46 am to DelU249
Keep on stealing Disney's money
Posted on 11/11/16 at 11:55 am to DelU249
quote:Yeah let's not reflect on how small variations would have significantly impacted the outcome, especially as it relates to the result of campaigning decisions.
1. If if if if
And we also shouldn't wonder what would have happened if Ray Allen didn't hit that 3 in 2013 NBA Finals, or if LeBron didn't block Iguodala's lay up in this year's finals, or if Auburn didn't return the missed FG for a TD against Bama, or if Arkansas doesn't get 4th and 25 against Ole Miss.
While we're at it, we shouldn't wonder about the impact of Len Biases death, Magic's HIV diagnosis, or Bo Jackson's career ending injury.
BUTTTT we must wonder what the Star Wars prequels would have been like without the terrible direction of George Lucas. That is a what if that can't be ignored.
Posted on 11/11/16 at 11:56 am to buckeye_vol
I agree to the larger point he is making. We all do that with results of everything. Change one or even a few seemingly irrelevant things and the outcome is drastically different. cause and effect are not equal in scale...we didn't need Nate Silver to make that point. one variable can change everything drastically. We got it. There's this guy named Rube Goldberg
But the delivery and motivation is exactly what it looks like...ego, dissatisfaction with the outcome and reassurance that comes with "most people agree with me. It also comes with tweets about how the EC is unfair so I'll add AGENDA
But the delivery and motivation is exactly what it looks like...ego, dissatisfaction with the outcome and reassurance that comes with "most people agree with me. It also comes with tweets about how the EC is unfair so I'll add AGENDA
This post was edited on 11/11/16 at 12:04 pm
Posted on 11/11/16 at 11:57 am to roadGator
quote:Yep.
at the uncle response
Posted on 11/11/16 at 11:58 am to DelU249
Posted on 11/11/16 at 12:03 pm to DelU249
Is that the guy from Dio responding?
Posted on 11/11/16 at 12:03 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
Yeah let's not reflect on how small variations would have significantly impacted the outcome, especially as it relates to the result of campaigning decisions
If the polls can't reasonably predict the result, what are they good for.
More importantly, there is very reasonable suspicion that the poll data was massaged throughout the campaign in an attempt to manipulate the general public. All of that was done of the backs of people pointing to how accurate the models were (particulary 538).
Almost every election is "close" enough to say, a few points here or there could have changed things. These sites pretend to be able to predict much more accurately than that though.
Posted on 11/11/16 at 12:03 pm to DelU249
quote:Well look at the responses in there threads. Despite giving Trump FAR better odds than any other forecaster, and discussing the impact of the campaign decisions and the possibility of a Popular Vote-EC split, people are saying he has lost all credibility.
But the delivery and motivation is exactly what it looks like...ego
I feel the need to defend 538 against these these ridiculous criticisms so can you really blame him? In addition, it's clear that many people still don't understand probability, and how a minor variations continuous metric (votes on a state) can have HUGE ramifications on a binary metric (win-loss) with a multiplicative transformation (win*EC votes in each state).
Posted on 11/11/16 at 12:04 pm to DelU249
Ronnie James Dio bringing the heat from beyond the grave.
Posted on 11/11/16 at 12:04 pm to Jake88
I found that response to be the best. Brevity is the soul of wit. I don't know who that is, and it wasn't the first response
Posted on 11/11/16 at 12:04 pm to buckeye_vol
Take a look at how many votes won it for Obama in 2012.
Posted on 11/11/16 at 12:05 pm to DelU249
Mississippi State is 7 points away from being 8-1 this season
Posted on 11/11/16 at 12:06 pm to buckeye_vol
Yeah, we all played mousetrap when we were kids people get that, but this guy relished his legend, spoke with authority even when just making a random comment or giving an opinion and his model was presented in that way.
He absolutely deserves the shite he's eating.
people get that, but this guy relished his legend, spoke with authority even when just making a random comment or giving an opinion and his model was presented in that way. He absolutely deserves the shite he's eating.
Posted on 11/11/16 at 12:06 pm to DelU249
Dio was a metal band during the 1980s. Wonder if it's him or a fan.
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