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re: .
Posted on 11/11/16 at 12:07 pm to buckeye_vol
Posted on 11/11/16 at 12:07 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:Well, for starters, that's just not true.
Despite giving Trump FAR better odds than any other forecaster,
2
Posted on 11/11/16 at 12:09 pm to Jake88
quote:
Dio was a metal band during the 1980s. Wonder if it's him or a fan
Dio isn't a metal band. Ronnie James Dio was a metal God though in the 80's. Unfortunately, it isn't him. He died about 5 years ago from stomach cancer.
Dammit now I'm needing some fricking Dio
LINK
LINK
This post was edited on 11/11/16 at 12:13 pm
Posted on 11/11/16 at 12:10 pm to LSURussian
Yeah and with the exception of about 7 days over a period of 7 months, he had clinton anywhere from 80 to 96%
Those results don't get tested but all together they told people "he has no chance" and if he didn't get that then he's a fricking retard. He can't complain about polling data being the cause. He was such a dick to people saying those polls were wrong. He is focusing on national polls but 5 states were bat shite crazy wrong and if you remove eco and just look at the individual polling...it was all bat shite crazy wrong
Those results don't get tested but all together they told people "he has no chance" and if he didn't get that then he's a fricking retard. He can't complain about polling data being the cause. He was such a dick to people saying those polls were wrong. He is focusing on national polls but 5 states were bat shite crazy wrong and if you remove eco and just look at the individual polling...it was all bat shite crazy wrong
Posted on 11/11/16 at 12:12 pm to moneyg
quote:But even with large state misses, they still have a fairly accurate representation of the electorate's views. Just because the average of the polls in Florida was only +0.2 for Trump, which gave Hillary a better chance of winning the state and election, doesn't mean the relatively close +1.3 Trump outcome and the 29 EC votes (58 EC or ~ 11% swing) completely negated the views.
If the polls can't reasonably predict the result, what are they good for.
And interestingly, the National polls will probably be more accurate than 2012, but because the error was in the opposite direction, it had a FAR greater impact on the outcome.
Posted on 11/11/16 at 12:12 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
buckeye_vol
You are either Nate himself
Have had sex with Nate
Or are getting paid by Nate
Posted on 11/11/16 at 12:12 pm to buckeye_vol
Posted on 11/11/16 at 12:13 pm to LSURussian
quote:I should have been more specific, he gave Trump a far better chance than the forecasters who use poll modeling.
Well, for starters, that's just not true.
This post was edited on 11/11/16 at 12:14 pm
Posted on 11/11/16 at 12:14 pm to moneyg
The bigger point to take away from this is the modeling is so easily manipulated and Clinton should have never been proclaimed a sure winner by the media.
Posted on 11/11/16 at 12:14 pm to tagatose
Dude has lost ALL credibility.
Posted on 11/11/16 at 12:14 pm to tagatose
Yeah he wasn't wrong 
He was wrong about EVERYTHING. Fine, but don't insult our intelligence defending yourself nate. That's what landed him here in the first place
He was wrong about EVERYTHING. Fine, but don't insult our intelligence defending yourself nate. That's what landed him here in the first place
Posted on 11/11/16 at 12:15 pm to RobbBobb
quote:Despite the fact that you are "correct" doesn't somehow negate the fact that you continue to show little understanding of survey theory, and probability/statistics.
You are either Nate himself
Have had sex with Nate
Or are getting paid by Nate
Posted on 11/11/16 at 12:16 pm to buckeye_vol
Your defending the model and the concept of odds
But don't dismiss his tweets, comments, podcasts and articles that were right there beside that model. The shite he's eating is well deserved.
But don't dismiss his tweets, comments, podcasts and articles that were right there beside that model. The shite he's eating is well deserved.
Posted on 11/11/16 at 12:16 pm to DelU249
Is he just totally ignoring the margins the polls were showing?
A week before the election, didn't the polls predict a blowout?
The last polling average I could find for Michigan showed +3.4 for Hillary.
This seems like a very shallow point for someone like Silver to make.
A week before the election, didn't the polls predict a blowout?
The last polling average I could find for Michigan showed +3.4 for Hillary.
This seems like a very shallow point for someone like Silver to make.
Posted on 11/11/16 at 12:18 pm to DelU249
And ole miss won the west in 2003.
Posted on 11/11/16 at 12:18 pm to buckeye_vol
But it goes so far beyond that
I understand marketing, presentation, subtext and inference
People may not be venting things in a precise manner in regards to abstract theory but they're not stupid...they know what's up
I understand marketing, presentation, subtext and inference
People may not be venting things in a precise manner in regards to abstract theory but they're not stupid...they know what's up
Posted on 11/11/16 at 12:19 pm to DelU249
quote:But he had a very good sense of the election. Below is my defense of him yesterday.
But don't dismiss his tweets, comments, podcasts and articles that were right there beside that model. The shite he's eating is well deserved.
Nate discussed the very outcome
The Odds Of An Electoral College-Popular Vote Split Are Increasing
He argued that the state races were far more uncertain
Election Update: National Polls Show Clinton’s Lead Stabilizing — State Polls, Not So Much
He argued that despite her polling, her position was much worse than Obama in 2012
Election Update: Why Clinton’s Position Is Worse Than Obama’s
He was forced to argue against the other modelers about Trump's chances
Election Update: Yes, Donald Trump Has A Path To Victory
He highlighted the uncertainty due to undecided voters
Election Update: Where Are The Undecided Voters?
He even had to defend Trump's odds when before the Comey bombshell where others were giving Trump less than 1% when Clinton had her largest polling margins
Election Update: Why Our Model Is More Bullish Than Others On Trump.
In addition, he even questioned Hillary's campaigning in Arizona while giving Trump credit for campaigning in Wisconsin and Michigan.
Not only is it justifiable for Trump to be campaigning in WI or MI—it's absolutely the correct strategy. Whereas Clinton in AZ is dubious.
He even went off on the hack liberals at Huffington Post who were criticizing him for giving Trump a good chance of winning.
Nate Silver rages at Huffington Post editor in 14-part tweetstorm
quote:The model is the model. It uses the data to make a prediction; however, I think he should be commended for actually analyzing the state of the races, including the campaigning choices and the uncertainty. While everybody else was predicting a landslide, he was arguing against that.
There's a reasonable range of disagreement. But a model showing Clinton at 98% or 99% is not defensible based on the empirical evidence.
Posted on 11/11/16 at 12:20 pm to uway
He spent 4 years being treated like a legend and figuratively blown at every turn
I don't know if that made him a prick or just exacerbated all of his personality traits that make him one
I don't know if that made him a prick or just exacerbated all of his personality traits that make him one
Posted on 11/11/16 at 12:21 pm to buckeye_vol
Agreed. Trump was pretty dam close to winning almost 40 states.
Posted on 11/11/16 at 12:21 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
Despite the fact that you are "correct"
Even ole Nate has a CTR project going.
Its the lib go to move, in the Internet age
Posted on 11/11/16 at 12:22 pm to Blizzard of Chizz
quote:
Dammit now I'm needing some fricking Dio
I tend to get my fix every couple weeks. Listened all day yesterday.
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