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re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine
Posted on 9/2/16 at 7:41 am to roadGator
Posted on 9/2/16 at 7:41 am to roadGator
As others have echoed in this thread, if that damn thing had another 12 hours in the Gulf this thread would of shifted to wtf can we do to help those folks...
Reason 309278402983 you dont sleep on these storms.
Reason 309278402983 you dont sleep on these storms.
Posted on 9/2/16 at 8:00 am to 50_Tiger
I'm on vacation in gulf shores but live in Tallahassee. My sister in law just said my house is fine with just a lot of limbs down but no damage. Power is back up a few blocks away so hopefully I don't even have to empty and clean the freezer when I get home.
Posted on 9/2/16 at 8:01 am to baytiger
quote:
Florida got pretty lucky that it didn't have more time. With that eyewall in place we could have seen some rapid intensification in the next 6-12 hours over water.
Also, it came ashore in one of the more sparsely populated areas of the state.
The rain shield has really expanded on the northern side as the system interacts with the trough coming down. Storms that move up the East Coast are much more likely to have the precipitation max on the left side of the track while storms that landfall in the Gulf are more likely to have the max on the right side of the track. The models are showing this undergoing some extratropical transition but then, as the trough lifts out and a ridge builds over top, they are showing it transitioning back to more of a warm core tropical system. Tough forecast challenge for the MA & NE for this weekend.
Posted on 9/2/16 at 8:10 am to rds dc
In Gainesville, no power for me. Tree fell down on a power line down the street. Besides that, I've only seen moderate to small tree limbs down. We got a little lucky as a lot of the heavier stuff in the outer bands missed us.
Posted on 9/2/16 at 8:26 am to gatorsimz
I'm in SC and we are already getting hammered and the worst is still to come. Have already had just over 3 inches of rain in the past 2 hours. Schools here in this area are closed, flood warnings, tornado watches with high TOR:CON index values, winds already gusting to 40 mph..and from what we are being told they aren't expecting the heaviest stuff until this evening. Just an absolutely miserable, hellatiously messy day...and praying hard that we can somehow avoid more flooding. Everybody stay safe out there and just stay home if you don't absolutely have to go out in this mess.
Posted on 9/2/16 at 8:27 am to Carolina_Girl
quote:
and praying hard that we can somehow avoid more flooding.
Best of luck.
Posted on 9/2/16 at 9:05 am to roadGator
Ehh, they call every morning at the same time whether I answer or don't. They were completely non-phased about the storm last night. They're adults and have a dozen ways of contacting me if they actually needed to speak to me about something,
Posted on 9/2/16 at 9:11 am to Hangit
quote:I knew it. Woke up at 4am because the doors to the garages at my apartment building were all violently opening and slamming. Got on the interwebs and it said 8 mph winds. Knew that couldn't be correct.
There is a band running from St. Pete through Disney. We got strong winds about 4-5 am and are still getting rain. Disney is getting hammered right now with 50 mph gusts.
Tampa just reported that St. Pete just got 45'ish gusts. That is running right up I-4 to the Green Swamp.
This post was edited on 9/2/16 at 9:16 am
Posted on 9/2/16 at 10:46 am to ReauxlTide222
At 2.5 inches in Columbia. The heaviest of the rain is beginning.
Isn't so bad.
Isn't so bad.
Posted on 9/2/16 at 10:49 am to rds dc
quote:I don't forecast far enough out to worry about it yet... but those that do have been all over the map. I think NWS had a forecast for Rhode Island that was like "72 and sunny. Tropical storm conditions possible"
Tough forecast challenge for the MA & NE for this weekend.
Posted on 9/2/16 at 1:30 pm to baytiger
Models are tending westward with Hermine, this could end up being really bad for New Jersey and maybe even NYC. NHC forecast Hermine to regain hurricane strength but as a post tropical system. I'm not sure if that is a hurricane force low or a post tropical hurricane or a nor'easter
The Euro drifts it down the Jersey shore and gets it to hurricane force winds and about 985 as it nearly has a second landfall in Delaware.
(dips to 985 b/w panels)
The Euro drifts it down the Jersey shore and gets it to hurricane force winds and about 985 as it nearly has a second landfall in Delaware.
(dips to 985 b/w panels)
Posted on 9/2/16 at 1:57 pm to TigerstuckinMS
quote:
What the frick is wrong with you?
I had a $100 bet with a dipshit buddy that this thing would become a hurricane a week ago.
Posted on 9/2/16 at 6:05 pm to rds dc
18z GFS for Saturday evening:
18z GFS for Monday evening:
18z GFS for Thursday evening:
If the westward trend continues, on the high end, this could be worse than Sandy and even Katrina like for areas of the Mid-Atlantic/NE.
18z GFS for Monday evening:
18z GFS for Thursday evening:
If the westward trend continues, on the high end, this could be worse than Sandy and even Katrina like for areas of the Mid-Atlantic/NE.
Posted on 9/2/16 at 6:22 pm to rds dc
You misspelled SUPER STORM Sandy
Posted on 9/2/16 at 6:52 pm to rds dc
That's like a wet dream for the media
Posted on 9/2/16 at 7:12 pm to rds dc
quote:
If the westward trend continues, on the high end, this could be worse than Sandy and even Katrina like for areas of the Mid-Atlantic/NE.
the prediction I saw this morning has it camped off North Jersey, south of Long Island, for days. Days of heavy squalls and gales for RI. NJ and NYC and Long Island Sound, Connecticut.
We may have a month of this left. The water off Dauphin Island, Alabama is 89 degrees. Same off the northern coast of Florida. plenty of locations 87 and 88.
Compare to Long Island Sound. 76 on the western enclosed end.
69 on the eastern end, which opens to the Atlantic.
So the wind should die down once its over water in the high 60's.
This business is the streams of New Jersey.
Should get interesting in a few days.
LINK
Posted on 9/2/16 at 7:14 pm to 4LSU2
I mean when is this thread going to die. This storm is long gone and not affecting Louisiana any more
Posted on 9/2/16 at 7:18 pm to TulaneUVA
Go away, then
This post was edited on 9/2/16 at 7:19 pm
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