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re: Will there ever be a greater pitcher than Nolan Ryan in the modern era?
Posted on 7/20/16 at 2:41 pm to Baloo
Posted on 7/20/16 at 2:41 pm to Baloo
quote:
Ryan is not a top 15 guy. He threw a ton of strikeouts, but he was also a walks machine with a career ERA of 3.19 in a pitchers' era. His career ERA+ is 112. That's tied for 275th all-time, tied with guys like Wislon Alvarez, Orel Hersheiser, and Frank Viola. Good pitchers, but not all-timers. Ryan wasn't all that great at the most important job a pitcher has: preventing runs.
player you like, you always cite longevity
player you dont like, you fail to mention it
finished top 10 in ERA+ 7 times, including leading the league twice.
His WAR amongst pitchers all time is 20th.
quote:
Ryan wasn't all that great at the most important job a pitcher has: preventing runs.
he finished with a FIP of 2.97 over 27 year career(123rd all time). He finished top 10 in this metric 17 times. Id say he was pretty good at preventing runs.
Posted on 7/20/16 at 3:01 pm to Lester Earl
I think longevity is his best argument. Sure, he's a Hall of Famer, and he was fun as all hell, but the argument is whether he is this inner circle Hall of Famer, and the best pitchers will have both peak and longevity. If you'll note, I didn't really talk about his peak either.
He was top 10 in ERA+ 7 times. He lead the league in ERA+ twice. He was top 5 just three times. Three. Let's compare that to Blyleven: led the league once, top 5 7 times, and top 10 12 times.
You want to talk about a record that will never be broken: his career walks record is insane. He's 922 walks ahead of the #2 guy, Steve Carlton. That would rank 145th all-time if it were a pitcher, and it's two more walks than Darryl Kile threw in his career. It's a staggering record.
While we're on the subject of WAR for pitchers, and I've made my feelings on WAR pretty clear, Blyleven has 96.5, good for 11th all-time. Also, FIP well overstates Ryan's quality, as it assumes that hits are no responsibility of the pitcher, which erases one of Ryan's huge weaknesses. He lead the league in Hits/9 TWELVE times. If you're beating the stats that consistently, it's not a fluke, there's something about you. His 6.6 H/9 is the highest of all-time among qualifying pitchers.
I like Ryan. He's fascinating, and probably the most UNIQUE pitcher in history. There's nothing else like him, and he was ornery cuss who made Bob Gibson look soft. But he's not the best pitcher in modern baseball, nor is he even close to it.
He was top 10 in ERA+ 7 times. He lead the league in ERA+ twice. He was top 5 just three times. Three. Let's compare that to Blyleven: led the league once, top 5 7 times, and top 10 12 times.
You want to talk about a record that will never be broken: his career walks record is insane. He's 922 walks ahead of the #2 guy, Steve Carlton. That would rank 145th all-time if it were a pitcher, and it's two more walks than Darryl Kile threw in his career. It's a staggering record.
While we're on the subject of WAR for pitchers, and I've made my feelings on WAR pretty clear, Blyleven has 96.5, good for 11th all-time. Also, FIP well overstates Ryan's quality, as it assumes that hits are no responsibility of the pitcher, which erases one of Ryan's huge weaknesses. He lead the league in Hits/9 TWELVE times. If you're beating the stats that consistently, it's not a fluke, there's something about you. His 6.6 H/9 is the highest of all-time among qualifying pitchers.
I like Ryan. He's fascinating, and probably the most UNIQUE pitcher in history. There's nothing else like him, and he was ornery cuss who made Bob Gibson look soft. But he's not the best pitcher in modern baseball, nor is he even close to it.
Posted on 7/20/16 at 3:18 pm to Baloo
quote:
Also, FIP well overstates Ryan's quality, as it assumes that hits are no responsibility of the pitcher, which erases one of Ryan's huge weaknesses. He lead the league in Hits/9 TWELVE times. If you're beating the stats that consistently, it's not a fluke, there's something about you. His 6.6 H/9 is the highest of all-time among qualifying pitchers.
This is an awfully confusing statement. FIP ignores hits allowed entirely, thus erasing one of Ryan's greatest strengths. He has the lowest or best H/9 all-time.
FIP loves Ryan b/c of the Ks, but those are largely neutralized by his BBs and HBPs. However, the other thing he has going for him is he didn't allow many HRs.
Posted on 7/20/16 at 3:19 pm to Baloo
I'm not saying he is the best modern era pitcher.
But to say he wasn't good at preventing runs is silly.
But to say he wasn't good at preventing runs is silly.
Posted on 7/20/16 at 3:48 pm to Lester Earl
He wasn't great at preventing runs. I'm sorry, a 112 ERA+ is by definition above average, but it's nothing to write home about. He was 12% better than league average at run prevention. He only had seven seasons with an ERA+ of 120 or above, and four at 140 or above, and just one above 150.
I mean, those are good numbers, but those aren't Best Modern Pitcher numbers. Going back to our old friend Bery Blyleven, he had an ERA+ above 120 13 times, 6 times above 140, and twice above 150. Blyleven was clearly better at run prevention, and he's the very definition of a borderline Hall of Famer.
I mean, those are good numbers, but those aren't Best Modern Pitcher numbers. Going back to our old friend Bery Blyleven, he had an ERA+ above 120 13 times, 6 times above 140, and twice above 150. Blyleven was clearly better at run prevention, and he's the very definition of a borderline Hall of Famer.
Posted on 7/20/16 at 3:51 pm to Baloo
quote:
Bery Blyleven
Blyleven sucks dick on MLB the Show so I'm taking this comment with a grain of salt.
Posted on 7/20/16 at 3:51 pm to GynoSandberg
quote:
What Ryan did past 40 years old is pretty remarkable
This and his beat down of Robin Ventura are why, i think, Ryan gets so much praise from "John Q Fan".
Posted on 7/20/16 at 3:54 pm to Speedy G
Man, you're right on FIP. Then I have no idea why Ryan's FIP numbers are so crazy. He's such an outlier, on every stat that he doesn't really fit in any statistical modeling. He breaks the mold. Ryan's a really weird pitcher.
Posted on 7/20/16 at 3:55 pm to H-Town Tiger
I'd compare Ryan to Brett Farve. Both clearly great and had amazing durability/longevity. But both clearly not in the GOAT conversations at their respective positions.
Posted on 7/20/16 at 4:07 pm to Baloo
quote:
Also, FIP well overstates Ryan's quality, as it assumes that hits are no responsibility of the pitcher, which erases one of Ryan's huge weaknesses.
i hate this metric
Posted on 7/20/16 at 4:10 pm to McCaigBro69
Greg Maddux
Roger Clemens
Pedro Martinez
Randy Johnson
Clayton Kershaw
Chris Sale
Sandy Koufax
Tom Seaver
Mariano Rivera
Madison Bumgarner
Are ALL better...in fact...
There are 300 pitchers ranked ahead of Nolan Ryan in (BB + H)/IP with a minimum of 1000 innings pitched.
Most overrated players:
John Elway
Nolan Ryan
Derek Jeter
Michael Jordan
Roger Clemens
Pedro Martinez
Randy Johnson
Clayton Kershaw
Chris Sale
Sandy Koufax
Tom Seaver
Mariano Rivera
Madison Bumgarner
Are ALL better...in fact...
There are 300 pitchers ranked ahead of Nolan Ryan in (BB + H)/IP with a minimum of 1000 innings pitched.
Most overrated players:
John Elway
Nolan Ryan
Derek Jeter
Michael Jordan
Posted on 7/20/16 at 4:16 pm to Baloo
quote:
Man, you're right on FIP. Then I have no idea why Ryan's FIP numbers are so crazy. He's such an outlier, on every stat that he doesn't really fit in any statistical modeling. He breaks the mold. Ryan's a really weird pitcher.
Well, FIP loves the low HRs and high Ks. The BBs and HBPs do wash away a lot of the Ks, but not all. But HRs really destroy a pitchers FIP, and Ryan did not allow many. I am not a big fan of FIP, personally. I think pitchers can and do induce a lot of weak contact, and that is a big part of pitching.
FWIW, FIP is (13xHR + 3x(BB+HBP) + 2xK) / IP (plus some normalizing constant)
So, you can see where the HRs really make a huge difference. Plus, Ryan is almost 2/1 career K/(BB+HBP), though that isn't anything special, historically.
Again, I don't really care for FIP, so don't take this as an endorsement of it (or Ryan).
Posted on 7/20/16 at 6:37 pm to H-Town Tiger
quote:There will likely never be a greater noogie in the modern era. Something tells me Mordecai 3-Finger Brown gave some treacherous noogies in the pre-modern era though.
This and his beat down of Robin Ventura are why, i think, Ryan gets so much praise from "John Q Fan".
Posted on 7/20/16 at 6:39 pm to Speedy G
high strikeout pitchers would generally have a stronger fip, however many of those pitchers also have high walk rates and that seems to wash it out. there are flaws to fip just like there is with every single stat, but its nice to have, along with xfip, to look at with era
This post was edited on 7/20/16 at 6:40 pm
Posted on 7/20/16 at 6:46 pm to McCaigBro69
Is Ryan still considered a modern era pitcher?
Posted on 7/20/16 at 6:49 pm to McCaigBro69
quote:
Blyleven sucks dick on MLB the Show
So YOU are basing A Pitcher on how he does on some how????
YES you are as dumb as a bucket of snot.........
Posted on 7/20/16 at 6:51 pm to dukke v
quote:
So YOU are basing A Pitcher on how he does on some how????
Assuming 'how' is meant to be read as 'show', but it's a video game dumbass.
And it was a joke.
I'll get off your lawn old man. Go back to worrying about kidney stones and why you haven't taken a shite in the last month.
Posted on 7/20/16 at 6:51 pm to CtotheVrzrbck
Ryan is the best ever.
All that disagree, meet me and OP at Sonic.
All that disagree, meet me and OP at Sonic.
Posted on 7/20/16 at 6:53 pm to McCaigBro69
quote:
I'll get off your lawn old man. Go back to worrying about kidney stones and why you haven't taken a shite in the last month.
Hey LITTLE BOY... You have made yourself look like A FOOL in this thread... There are SOOOOO MANY posters in this thread that have OWNED your arse its not even funny.... BUT HEy PUNKS ARE PUNKS... BTW LEARN some MLB history before you start such a STUPID thread again............
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