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Message
When do interest rates rise
Posted on 7/19/16 at 12:50 pm
Posted on 7/19/16 at 12:50 pm
IYO?
Posted on 7/19/16 at 1:24 pm to PenguinNinja
quote:
When do interest rates rise
To what degree? Or do you mean at all?
Posted on 7/19/16 at 3:25 pm to PenguinNinja
The fed will raise rates in Feb of 2017, and blame the collapse on Trump.
Posted on 7/19/16 at 3:52 pm to PenguinNinja
I think it's a much more complicated picture than most realize. The US is basically awaiting the rest of the world to get their shite together
Posted on 7/19/16 at 4:06 pm to Shepherd88
quote:
I think it's a much more complicated picture than most realize.
I definitely agree with that.
quote:
The US is basically awaiting the rest of the world to get their shite together
Not so much here. I think the US has more power than most other countries combined when it comes to currency. As long as our rates are extremely low, the rest of the world can't get anything together financially. Most of them need our rates to be higher.
I really do think that there is a ton of political pressure on the Fed to keep them down at least until after the election. Raising rates could very well cause the market correction that we need right now. I think the bubble is getting bigger than most realize.
Posted on 7/19/16 at 4:12 pm to stevengtiger
Raising our rates while the rest of the world is in negative rates will only continue to strengthen our dollar, which is not good for us.
Abd where is this bubble you're referring to?
Abd where is this bubble you're referring to?
Posted on 7/19/16 at 4:25 pm to Shepherd88
quote:
Raising our rates while the rest of the world is in negative rates will only continue to strengthen our dollar, which is not good for us.
That is definitely a possibility but I don't think that the Fed is waiting on the rest of the world to go back to positive interest rates before raising ours.
quote:
Abd where is this bubble you're referring to?
Well the market is at all time highs with labor participation and manufacturing dropping by the day. Housing prices are raising continuously as long as rates stay low. There is without a doubt in my mind a housing bubble going on in many parts of the country. Not to the extent of 2008 but I think its happening. Once rates go up, the less house someone can afford and will drag home prices lower.
This is only my simple minded opinion. There are plenty of people on this board smarter than me.
Posted on 7/19/16 at 4:51 pm to stevengtiger
I don't disagree with that. Although i think it could be more regional than it was 8 years ago. One thing I read about was some of these developers in large metro areas were doing crowd funding REITs essentially instead of getting traditional loans from the bank. So essentially they open up for local investments to be made into a new 50 family condominium plex per say, if you invest then you get an equity stake. They've eliminated the middle man (banks), but I think there is hidden risk here that the general public has never seen.
To respond to the other point though, I think the Fed is absolutely concerned about the rest of the world and Yellen has made that known. I believe she's more or less a lame duck at this point now and looking for Trump to replace her, should he win presidency. Therefore, she just doesn't want to be the one to be blamed should raising rates be disaterous. But of course that's all speculation.
To respond to the other point though, I think the Fed is absolutely concerned about the rest of the world and Yellen has made that known. I believe she's more or less a lame duck at this point now and looking for Trump to replace her, should he win presidency. Therefore, she just doesn't want to be the one to be blamed should raising rates be disaterous. But of course that's all speculation.
Posted on 7/19/16 at 7:01 pm to BamaCoaster
quote:
The fed will raise rates in Feb of 2017, and blame the collapse on Trump.
I think they'll wait until he been in there a little longer to really drill the blame in personally. maybe November 2017?
Posted on 7/19/16 at 7:01 pm to Shepherd88
quote:
Abd where is this bubble you're referring to?
Asset bubble.
Posted on 7/19/16 at 7:42 pm to Shepherd88
Go find somebody else to play your game.
Posted on 7/19/16 at 7:50 pm to TigerDeBaiter
If you're gonna make a claim in a post like that, then back your shite up. Otherwise, get out of the thread if you're not bringing something of value, troll.
Posted on 7/19/16 at 8:39 pm to Shepherd88
LINK
My positions have been pretty clear and consistent.
To add to that, let's not all forget what the catalyst for this rally was. A bogus jobs report that had a good chunk of the previous months jobs lumped in it. When you average the two months out they are meager at best.
So, dk you care to justify the valuation on the market right not? We've seen 4 straight quarters of declining earnings and a rising market. Other than being the tallest midget in a zero rate world, what is the justification?
My positions have been pretty clear and consistent.
To add to that, let's not all forget what the catalyst for this rally was. A bogus jobs report that had a good chunk of the previous months jobs lumped in it. When you average the two months out they are meager at best.
So, dk you care to justify the valuation on the market right not? We've seen 4 straight quarters of declining earnings and a rising market. Other than being the tallest midget in a zero rate world, what is the justification?
Posted on 7/19/16 at 8:43 pm to Shepherd88
There's definitely a housing bubble in that if rates go up, the housing market is going to correct itself. I'm starting to see people buy homes they should not be buying and housing prices in the 3 counties around me are very high right now compared to 1 year ago and especially compared to 2 years ago. People can afford them as is, but I think that is mostly because rates are so low that monthly payments are still decent.
Posted on 7/19/16 at 9:59 pm to PenguinNinja
Surely in 2015. Oh, 2016 - crap. 2017 and 2018 for sure,
Posted on 7/19/16 at 10:19 pm to Porker Face
Posted on 7/19/16 at 10:42 pm to baldona
baldona, i agree they're getting more home than they can afford but if its locked in on a 30 yr loan its fine, the crash in 2008 was bc everyone was using ARMs, they're tough on who they give those out to today. Whatever it is, rates are gonna be low for a long long time, so we better get used to it.
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