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re: 2016 Clayton Kershaw: 145 Ks, 9 BBs

Posted on 5/13/16 at 12:34 am to
Posted by WestCoastAg
Member since Oct 2012
145478 posts
Posted on 5/13/16 at 12:34 am to
Agreed.
Posted by Drewbie
tFlagship
Member since Jun 2012
58116 posts
Posted on 5/13/16 at 1:19 am to
quote:

but it still seems like Kershaw is on another level.
Does that level give up more runs than Arrieta? Because that's what's happening.

Before this turns into another Kershaw/Arrieta pissing match, I'm not taking anything away from Kershaw. But "on another level"? No. Specifically when there's another pitcher who's outperformed him the past year. The Kershaw fanboy counter to that is Kershaw has been better longer. Great. If this were 2013, people would care. But Arrieta is no longer with Baltimore's shite-tier coaching staff so let's not pretend there's no rhyme or reason to Arrieta's ascension. They're both great pitchers. Easily the top 2 in the game. But Kershaw has given up double the runs (12) that Arrieta has this season (6). That's not even factoring in the fact that Arrieta outperformed Kershaw by a large margin from the all-star break last year through the playoffs.

TL;DR, Is Kershaw elite? Absolutely. "On another level"? No.
This post was edited on 5/13/16 at 1:27 am
Posted by WestCoastAg
Member since Oct 2012
145478 posts
Posted on 5/13/16 at 2:28 am to
quote:

TL;DR, Is Kershaw elite? Absolutely. "On another level"? No.

i think he means that there is still a reason why most people think kershaw is still the best pitcher in the world even when there are currently a bunch of great pitchers
This post was edited on 5/13/16 at 2:28 am
Posted by lsu480
Downtown Scottsdale
Member since Oct 2007
92877 posts
Posted on 5/13/16 at 2:33 am to
quote:

Jake Arrieta is 20-1 with a 0.85 ERA and two no hitters since June 2015. Arguably the greatest run in MLB history



If he had done that in a calendar year he would be one of the most famous people on the planet
Posted by dnm3305
Member since Feb 2009
13663 posts
Posted on 5/13/16 at 7:52 am to
quote:

I never thought I'd see more pitching dominance in this era than Pedro from 1997 to 2003 or so, but Kershaw from 2011 until now is doing just that. His 2014 season isn't believable on paper, it simply looks fake.


Pedro's combined '99-00 seasons- (60 games started)ERA- 1.90
ERA+- 265
W-L- 41-10
WHIP- 0.830
K/9- 12.5
K/BB- 8.65
K- 298 (avg)
BB- 34 (avg)

Kershaw '14 season- (27 games)
ERA- 1.77
ERA+- 197
W-L- 21-3
WHIP- 0.857
K/9- 10.8
K/BB- 7.71
K- 239
BB- 31

Pretty damn close, but he's not quite Pedro level (on a pure dominance scale). No one is. Then you have to also factor in that Pedro pitched right through the heart of the steroid era. Kershaw is great, but not quite GOAT like Pedro at his peak.

Posted by ShaneTheLegLechler
Member since Dec 2011
60329 posts
Posted on 5/13/16 at 8:22 am to
Peak Pedro from 99-01 was unbelievable considering the era. I have a hard time believing any pitcher will top that in my lifetime. What Kershaw and Arrieta are doing is incredible but Pedro truly was on another level during that time
Posted by SPEEDY
2005 Tiger Smack Poster of the Year
Member since Dec 2003
83548 posts
Posted on 5/13/16 at 8:29 am to
quote:

2016 K/BB leaders:
1. Kershaw 21.33


That's video game numbers.

The single season record is 11.63
Posted by LMfan
Member since Aug 2014
5145 posts
Posted on 5/13/16 at 8:55 am to
Somehow, the Braves touched this guy up for 10 hits. They have accounted for 24 percent of the hits Kershaw has allowed this year.

Baseball.

Posted by Vicks Kennel Club
29-24 #BlewDat
Member since Dec 2010
31085 posts
Posted on 5/13/16 at 9:06 am to
Yeah, I meant to mention K-BB%, not K/BB as the best in-season indicator. Probably not thinking clearly that late last night. At least the point about Kershaw being an outlier is still made.
Posted by SirWinston
PNW
Member since Jul 2014
83190 posts
Posted on 5/13/16 at 9:19 am to
quote:

Except not really


I've lost like $4 grand over the past few years betting on this fricking choker in the playoffs. How dare you defend his shitty Peyton Manning-esque performance in October.
This post was edited on 5/13/16 at 9:19 am
Posted by Chitter Chatter
In and Out of Consciousness
Member since Sep 2009
4660 posts
Posted on 5/13/16 at 11:12 am to
2016 Weight
1. Kershaw 220 lbs
2. Colon 285 lbs
Posted by WestCoastAg
Member since Oct 2012
145478 posts
Posted on 5/13/16 at 1:05 pm to
quote:

Peak Pedro from 99-01 was unbelievable considering the era. I have a hard time believing any pitcher will top that in my lifetime. What Kershaw and Arrieta are doing is incredible but Pedro truly was on another level during that time

actually really isnt that far off. here is what pedro did from 1998-2003:

2.26 era
2.24 fip
.942 whip
11.2 k/9
5.87 k/bb

here is kershaw from 2011 to now

2.09 era
2.28 fip
.922 whip
10.9 k/9
5.39 k/bb
Posted by WestCoastAg
Member since Oct 2012
145478 posts
Posted on 5/13/16 at 1:05 pm to
quote:

I've lost like $4 grand over the past few years betting on this fricking choker in the playoffs. How dare you defend his shitty Peyton Manning-esque performance in October.

then youve bet on the two shitty games he has had over 3 years. thats some shitty luck
Posted by devils1854
Franklin
Member since Aug 2014
6359 posts
Posted on 5/13/16 at 1:30 pm to
After last night, he has one more start than most starters in the league, but so far this year, he is on another level. Thor, Arrieta, Sale, etc.. arent even close.


He's averaging 7.75 innings a start, easily 1st in baseball.

Here are other stats he leads in with second place in parenthesis
3.0 WAR(1.8)
19.25 K/BB(9.00)
0.58 BB/9(0.83)
1.48 FIP(2.13)
1.89 xFIP(2.38)
1.96 SIERA(2.49)

He's crushing the competition. He's also 2nd in baseball in K%, and 5th in K/9.

If you want to sit behind Arrieta's 1.13 ERA and think he is even close, then be my guest, but come back when things even out, because he isnt going to sustain a .203 BABIP, and a 89.3% LOB.
This post was edited on 5/13/16 at 1:33 pm
Posted by Vicks Kennel Club
29-24 #BlewDat
Member since Dec 2010
31085 posts
Posted on 5/13/16 at 1:32 pm to
quote:


If you want to sit behind Arrieta's 1.13 ERA and think he is even close, then be my guest, but come back when things even out, because he isnt going to sustain a .203 BABIP.

That's true, but we still have a lot to learn about how much a pitcher can influence weak contact.
Posted by Drewbie
tFlagship
Member since Jun 2012
58116 posts
Posted on 5/13/16 at 3:29 pm to
quote:

If you want to sit behind Arrieta's 1.13 ERA and think he is even close, then be my guest, but come back when things even out, because he isnt going to sustain a .203 BABIP, and a 89.3% LOB.
You're right. He just got lucky for 26 straight starts. Strikeouts are flashy, but they don't always win games. Not giving up runs does, which Arrieta has been better at for the past year.
This post was edited on 5/13/16 at 3:36 pm
Posted by The Seaward
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2006
11362 posts
Posted on 5/13/16 at 3:57 pm to
quote:

You're right. He just got lucky for 26 straight starts. Strikeouts are flashy, but they don't always win games. Not giving up runs does, which Arrieta has been better at for the past year.


Jake Arrieta is great, but I reject the notion that just because he has had a lower ERA for the past year, he is the better pitcher. There is a lot of noise in a one year sample of ERA. Defense and luck can play a pretty big role.

For example, Marco Estrada had a lower ERA than Chris Sale last year. Marco Estrada is a good pitcher, but he isn't even close to Chris Sale.
Posted by WestCoastAg
Member since Oct 2012
145478 posts
Posted on 5/13/16 at 4:01 pm to
fangraphs had an article today about his walks

LINK /
Posted by The Seaward
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2006
11362 posts
Posted on 5/13/16 at 4:03 pm to
Yeah, I saw that earlier. Pretty cool piece.
Posted by GynoSandberg
Member since Jan 2006
72112 posts
Posted on 5/13/16 at 4:06 pm to
quote:

That's the crazy thing. Kershaw just turned 28. He still will probably be dominant for another 5 years


He's also 17th in active IP with 1,673. He's on a King Felix type pace. Decline in velo and Ks are imminent. Felix is still effective and I'm sure Kershaw will be too, but his age is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things

Porcello is the closest guy to Kershaw who is still in his 20s, and he's at 1,291 IP

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