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Chances Harbaugh fails at Michigan?
Posted on 12/21/14 at 7:26 pm
Posted on 12/21/14 at 7:26 pm
Assuming he takes the job. I put it at 60%. The UM people on here act like it's a guarantee that he'll resurrect the program. The possibility exists that he'll fail at Michigan and UM will be playing this same game again in four seasons. With the current state of college football, UM has a few inherent barriers to success:
1) Recruiting
Nationally, the BIG is considered weak, winters are extremely cold, and you have to recruit against Michigan State and Ohio State, and Notre Dame will always have a draw for some kids.
2) Urban at Ohio State
The dude is a great coach, he's got Ohio State rolling.
3) Resurgence of Michigan State.
It can't be beneficial to have your in-state rival as dominant as they have been.
4) Recent Suckage
Current recruits were BORN in 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000. These kids grew up with a view of the Michigan program from roughly 2003 to the present. A nice season here or there, but hardly the perspective of their moms and dads.
Harbaugh's a good coach, but his chance of success at Michigan (averaging 10+ wins a year) is less than 50/50.
Just saying.
1) Recruiting
Nationally, the BIG is considered weak, winters are extremely cold, and you have to recruit against Michigan State and Ohio State, and Notre Dame will always have a draw for some kids.
2) Urban at Ohio State
The dude is a great coach, he's got Ohio State rolling.
3) Resurgence of Michigan State.
It can't be beneficial to have your in-state rival as dominant as they have been.
4) Recent Suckage
Current recruits were BORN in 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000. These kids grew up with a view of the Michigan program from roughly 2003 to the present. A nice season here or there, but hardly the perspective of their moms and dads.
Harbaugh's a good coach, but his chance of success at Michigan (averaging 10+ wins a year) is less than 50/50.
Just saying.
Posted on 12/21/14 at 7:33 pm to Smalls
Easily he is the best option for UM.
The recruiting stuff is just bullshite, he'll pull from MSU immediately and football isn't just played in warm temperatures. It's a terrible argument.
As far as his success, he's been successful everywhere he has coached. That doesn't guarantee anything though.
The recruiting stuff is just bullshite, he'll pull from MSU immediately and football isn't just played in warm temperatures. It's a terrible argument.
As far as his success, he's been successful everywhere he has coached. That doesn't guarantee anything though.
Posted on 12/21/14 at 7:35 pm to Smalls
I really wonder if he is still willing to recruit. NFL coaching is a lot less taxing because there is no recruiting.
That's why I think he stays in the NFL regardless of whatever ridiculous money Michigan throws at him.
That's why I think he stays in the NFL regardless of whatever ridiculous money Michigan throws at him.
Posted on 12/21/14 at 7:35 pm to drizztiger
He is the best option for LSU
Posted on 12/21/14 at 7:36 pm to Smalls
It looks like Shane Morris stinks. Harbaugh probably couldn't get a good QB in for this year's recruiting class, even if he goes to Michigan next week. So, he would now have to recruit a guy who is a freshman in Harbaugh's second year, and probably doesn't develop for another year or two. That could be a problem.
He would destroy in recruiting. All he has to do is talk about the Super Bowl and NFC Championship games. Not even Saban and Meyer can do that.
He would destroy in recruiting. All he has to do is talk about the Super Bowl and NFC Championship games. Not even Saban and Meyer can do that.
This post was edited on 12/21/14 at 7:44 pm
Posted on 12/21/14 at 7:59 pm to Smalls
It is possible that Harbaugh could fail at Michigan. I think he averages 10 wins per season over the next 10-15 years and turns the program entirely around.
He is instantly a top 5 coach in college.
Michigan with him there would instantly be Michigan again and its not like they had trouble recruiting with Hoke there. He took stanford to top 10 program and never had a recruiting class ranked above 47. He would have top ten classes at Michigan if that gives you an idea of the kind of teams / programs he would be putting on the field.
He is instantly a top 5 coach in college.
Michigan with him there would instantly be Michigan again and its not like they had trouble recruiting with Hoke there. He took stanford to top 10 program and never had a recruiting class ranked above 47. He would have top ten classes at Michigan if that gives you an idea of the kind of teams / programs he would be putting on the field.
Posted on 12/21/14 at 8:09 pm to Trublue
quote:
I think he averages 10 wins per season over the next 10-15 years and turns the program entirely around.
We'll see. I think his Stanford success was due in part to his pro-style offense (which was beneficial to the prototypical Stanford athlete) in a somewhat weak PAC10 where the majority of schools were running spread. His NFL success has been impressive, but not completely transferable to the college game.
Posted on 12/21/14 at 8:17 pm to Smalls
quote:he signed a future NFL Hall of Famer at QB. Andrew Luck was a HUGE part of his success at Stanford. And Jim gets a lot of credit for that. He was close to signing Luck and Griffin III. That's incredible recruiting skills.
I think his Stanford success was due in part to his pro-style offense
Posted on 12/21/14 at 8:21 pm to Smalls
quote:
Harbaugh's a good coach, but his chance of success at Michigan (averaging 10+ wins a year) is less than 50/50.
Just saying.
Posted on 12/21/14 at 8:22 pm to Smalls
A lot contingent on the state of urbans ticker
Posted on 12/21/14 at 9:02 pm to kywildcatfanone
quote:Duh.
He's going to Oakland.
OP is just setting up UM faithful for the "Oh well, he wouldn't have done well here anyway" that is coming.
Posted on 12/21/14 at 9:13 pm to Smalls
100% chance he fails because he won't be going
Posted on 12/21/14 at 9:14 pm to Smalls
Very minimal to no chance at all he fails. It would shock me. Sorry but if you can make a Stanford a success it will be several times easier at a UM.
Posted on 12/21/14 at 9:15 pm to tom
quote:
I really wonder if he is still willing to recruit. NFL coaching is a lot less taxing because there is no recruiting.
Recruiting is a grind, but the NFL is much more time-intensive. College coaches do have periods of down time at various points in the offseason. The NFL never stops.
Posted on 12/21/14 at 9:16 pm to Smalls
There is chance he could fail because almost anything could happen. However, the realistic chances of him failing are far less than 50 percent. Dude is an awesome coach and his success in the NFL will get him tons of recruits. I personally believe he would own Urban. In fact, his hiring would probably give Urban more heart problems
Posted on 12/21/14 at 9:44 pm to auburnphan23
He was 28-21 at Stanford and had Andrew Luck. The UM faithful are envisioning the second coming of Saban, and I'm wanting to discuss the realistic possibility that we might be doing this again in 2018.
Posted on 12/21/14 at 9:53 pm to Smalls
quote:Stanford was 16 - 40 the 5 years prior to Harbaugh. Harbaugh only had Luck in 2009 and 2010.
He was 28-21 at Stanford and had Andrew Luck.
Shaw had luck in 2011.
Don't let facts take away from your argument though, continue on.
Posted on 12/21/14 at 9:55 pm to Smalls
You know Sanford had a losing record for at least the previous 4 or 5 years in a row prior to his arrival. This includes going 1-11 the year immediately before he arrived. His record was pretty damn good considering the complete dumpster fire he inherited
Posted on 12/21/14 at 11:55 pm to Bunk Moreland
Depends on what your definition of fail is. I think Harbaugh could easily win 9-10 games a year at Michigan, but then he would be no better than Lloyd Carr. I think Michigan fans are looking for Pete Carrol/USC and Nick Saban/Alabama results. That is what Harbaugh is up against.
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