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Started By
Message
Doing LES with more.....
Posted on 1/3/13 at 5:18 pm
Posted on 1/3/13 at 5:18 pm
I keep hearing how Miles is a great recruiter, and that cannot be denied. What he does with that talent, or the evaluation of the prospects he chooses, however, is a different story.
I provided an AR2 regression structure on recruiting rank and offensive rank for the top 120 teams in college football over the last 4 years. The AR2 structure was determined from a backstepped algorithm to determine the best fit on the lag in the residuals.
As you can see a drop in recruiting rank corresponds to a drop in offensive production. Yes, some teams do better and some worse. Most of the teams that had better offensive ranks with bad recruiting classes come from generally smaller conferences.
I provided LSU in the purple, Alabama in the red for a simple comparison. Although both fall within the prediction interval, the 95% CI shows that Alabama over the same time span has been able to do far better than LSU with the talent they are given, based on a model of all teams in FBS.
I provided an AR2 regression structure on recruiting rank and offensive rank for the top 120 teams in college football over the last 4 years. The AR2 structure was determined from a backstepped algorithm to determine the best fit on the lag in the residuals.
As you can see a drop in recruiting rank corresponds to a drop in offensive production. Yes, some teams do better and some worse. Most of the teams that had better offensive ranks with bad recruiting classes come from generally smaller conferences.
I provided LSU in the purple, Alabama in the red for a simple comparison. Although both fall within the prediction interval, the 95% CI shows that Alabama over the same time span has been able to do far better than LSU with the talent they are given, based on a model of all teams in FBS.
17
Posted on 1/3/13 at 5:20 pm to CptBengal
frick you, I'm a KIN major.
Posted on 1/3/13 at 5:21 pm to CptBengal
quote:
I provided LSU in the purple, Alabama in the red for a simple comparison. Although both fall within the prediction interval, the 95% CI shows that Alabama over the same time span has been able to do far better than LSU with the talent they are given, based on a model of all teams in FBS.
If you had asked me I could have saved you some time.
Posted on 1/3/13 at 5:21 pm to CptBengal
Posted on 1/3/13 at 5:24 pm to CptBengal
Wow you did all that work, and for what exactly? Bama has done better than us the past 5 years? SHOCKER
Posted on 1/3/13 at 5:28 pm to CptBengal
Well that doesnt mean shite.
Recruiting rankings wise puts us behind Bama, Usc, Ut, FSU, Uf and rt ahead of Aub and UGA.
With teams like ND, Ohio Ste, tamu, clemson and others that have had at least one higher rated class than lsu over the last 5 years.
Yet we have an sec title and a bcscg birth in that time frame. Please explain how he does less with more?
15 frosh played from a class ranked rt inside the top 20 on every recruiting site. Atleast 18 programs had a better class than LSU last year. You dont remember the meltdown last feb?
Recruiting rankings wise puts us behind Bama, Usc, Ut, FSU, Uf and rt ahead of Aub and UGA.
With teams like ND, Ohio Ste, tamu, clemson and others that have had at least one higher rated class than lsu over the last 5 years.
Yet we have an sec title and a bcscg birth in that time frame. Please explain how he does less with more?
15 frosh played from a class ranked rt inside the top 20 on every recruiting site. Atleast 18 programs had a better class than LSU last year. You dont remember the meltdown last feb?
This post was edited on 1/3/13 at 5:29 pm
Posted on 1/3/13 at 5:29 pm to CptBengal
so alabama is competing for their 3rd BCS national championship in 4 years and LSU is sitting at home after choking against clemson.
got it
got it
Posted on 1/3/13 at 6:13 pm to CptBengal
Posted on 1/3/13 at 6:28 pm to CptBengal
quote:
the 95% CI shows that Alabama over the same time span has been able to do far better than LSU with the talent they are given, based on a model of all teams in FBS.
This is shocking
Posted on 1/3/13 at 6:36 pm to CptBengal
quote:
Alabama over the same time span has been able to do far better than LSU
Posted on 1/3/13 at 6:48 pm to CptBengal
All of this assumes that recruiting ranks are an accurate predictor 1:1 predictor of success. Did you account for the potential error there?
Posted on 1/3/13 at 7:05 pm to CptBengal
Bad statistics is bad when all variables aren't the same.
Bama gets easier schedule than LSU......if you are going to do this, then you have to compare based solely on common opponents. You can't discount having to play better teams when you are looking at offensive production. Secondly, styles are a variable that completely make this point worthless based on these statistics. The only way to compare a spread offense and a run-based offense is to look at yds/play since that eliminates the fact that LSU on it's best day wants 65 snaps and a team like aTm wants 100.
If you want to compare to Bama, then use your statistical know-how to compare yds/play against common opponents and you will get your best possible comparison most likely.
Lastly, if you are going to look at recruiting rank, then you can only look at what the rank would be for each class minus defensive recruits. LSU's recruiting rank for the past couple years has been dramatically improved by defensive recruits and thus they have no direct effect on our "total offense" rank which means you are compring apples to oranges in this instance.
tl;dr - BAD STATISTICS IS BAD
Bama gets easier schedule than LSU......if you are going to do this, then you have to compare based solely on common opponents. You can't discount having to play better teams when you are looking at offensive production. Secondly, styles are a variable that completely make this point worthless based on these statistics. The only way to compare a spread offense and a run-based offense is to look at yds/play since that eliminates the fact that LSU on it's best day wants 65 snaps and a team like aTm wants 100.
If you want to compare to Bama, then use your statistical know-how to compare yds/play against common opponents and you will get your best possible comparison most likely.
Lastly, if you are going to look at recruiting rank, then you can only look at what the rank would be for each class minus defensive recruits. LSU's recruiting rank for the past couple years has been dramatically improved by defensive recruits and thus they have no direct effect on our "total offense" rank which means you are compring apples to oranges in this instance.
tl;dr - BAD STATISTICS IS BAD
This post was edited on 1/3/13 at 7:08 pm
Posted on 1/4/13 at 12:42 am to CptBengal
quote:
CaptBengal
I would be interested to see this graph but for defensive ranks.
I don't have your skills, could you make that happen???
Posted on 1/4/13 at 12:42 am to CptBengal
quote:
CaptBengal
I would be interested to see this graph but for defensive ranks.
I don't have your skills, could you make that happen???
Posted on 1/5/13 at 1:35 am to CptBengal
Cpt everything 'Lulz' is saying is right
your argument is ''Les does les with more'
Let's put aside the fact LSU won two SEC titles with Les at the helm (harder to do than win the NC)
One, your relationship is simple... LSU recruits top 10 classes... does LSU have a top 10 class? NO... if ranters are really paying attention, you are not telling us anything new, you made it into a picture, that is all...
But as 'lilz' says, thta picture is very much faulty...
-- Did you use all the FBS teams? 120?.... don't you think the defenses faced has a lot to do with it as well.....
Lulz is also right, with all the spread teams, that means more plays and longer games.... so LSU will NEVER be in the top 5 in offense because of this...
Nothing against you, I have a brother making stastitics for fun all the time, ( but he includes varables in his formulas )... so spending time on this stuff... glad you enjoy it..
Thanks for the picture as well... but no one here didn't know that LSU gets top 12 recrutiing classes every year, and have far from top 20 offenses....
But again as 'lulz' says... Having a top 12 class and a lower ranked offense is nothing to do with anything...
1- Recrutiing class has defensive players, could be easily said that LSU recruits top players on defense at every position...
2- Offensive recruits although valued, still do not show in the production because , once again as 'lulz' says.. style of play and the quality of defense is not registered in your statistics, and total offense in no way illustrates individual development...
you also are comparing LSU to all of the FBS aren't you?
What about all the blow out games LSU has had and killed the clock in the whole 4th Quarter in the last 4/5 years?
comparing, let's say Houston who always has the pedal to the medal versus LSU.. in only Total Off yards and Recruiting Rankings..
Is in NO WAY giving a legitimate representation of your argument, Les is getting les with more
Furthermore, wich rnkings did you use in recruitng? Because they aren't all the same, did you use a composite?
I also agree with lulz on you have to use Yards per play.... because even Points Per Game is not completely telling us the story, as a bad or a good kicker can change the scoreboard no matter how long the offense came, and defense and special teams do score as well.....
So you have to qualify your relationships before you use them .. because otherwise, it is just FAULTY...
your argument is ''Les does les with more'
Let's put aside the fact LSU won two SEC titles with Les at the helm (harder to do than win the NC)
One, your relationship is simple... LSU recruits top 10 classes... does LSU have a top 10 class? NO... if ranters are really paying attention, you are not telling us anything new, you made it into a picture, that is all...
But as 'lilz' says, thta picture is very much faulty...
-- Did you use all the FBS teams? 120?.... don't you think the defenses faced has a lot to do with it as well.....
Lulz is also right, with all the spread teams, that means more plays and longer games.... so LSU will NEVER be in the top 5 in offense because of this...
Nothing against you, I have a brother making stastitics for fun all the time, ( but he includes varables in his formulas )... so spending time on this stuff... glad you enjoy it..
Thanks for the picture as well... but no one here didn't know that LSU gets top 12 recrutiing classes every year, and have far from top 20 offenses....
But again as 'lulz' says... Having a top 12 class and a lower ranked offense is nothing to do with anything...
1- Recrutiing class has defensive players, could be easily said that LSU recruits top players on defense at every position...
2- Offensive recruits although valued, still do not show in the production because , once again as 'lulz' says.. style of play and the quality of defense is not registered in your statistics, and total offense in no way illustrates individual development...
you also are comparing LSU to all of the FBS aren't you?
What about all the blow out games LSU has had and killed the clock in the whole 4th Quarter in the last 4/5 years?
comparing, let's say Houston who always has the pedal to the medal versus LSU.. in only Total Off yards and Recruiting Rankings..
Is in NO WAY giving a legitimate representation of your argument, Les is getting les with more
Furthermore, wich rnkings did you use in recruitng? Because they aren't all the same, did you use a composite?
I also agree with lulz on you have to use Yards per play.... because even Points Per Game is not completely telling us the story, as a bad or a good kicker can change the scoreboard no matter how long the offense came, and defense and special teams do score as well.....
So you have to qualify your relationships before you use them .. because otherwise, it is just FAULTY...
This post was edited on 1/5/13 at 2:56 am
Posted on 1/6/13 at 8:50 am to CptBengal
Ok, a few things, because I love shite like this.
First off, this is just OFFENSIVE ranks, correct? This doesn't take into account how great our defense and ST have done as well, right? For example, on defense, you have several outliers. One, right off hand, would be Mo Claiborne, a 2 star recruit who ended up being a first round pick in the NFL. There are several others as well. That is clearly doing more...
Next, does this take into account what types of schedules LSU has been playing? For example, everyone here loves to suck Saban's cock, but damn it has to be easy on you when your toughest division rivals have to go through a gauntlet that, by design of Bama alumni running the SEC, are two to three times harder than yours annually. Isn't it easier to do more when you only have to play maybe two ranked teams all year, and have the luxury of knowing you can lose one of them? That has to factor in this as well...
What about games where LSU was blowing people out? While people love to bash on Miles, he has won a LOT of games (and many against top programs) where the LSU offense literally needed to sit on the ball the majority of the second half in order to finish the game. Some notables: The ENTIRE frickING 2011 Season (minus the Game of the Century that didn't count), several big games in 2005, 2006 (AZ comes to mind right away), 2007 (Va Tech), 2008 (Bowl), etc.
Don't get me wrong, I KNOW LSU's offense is average/below average. It has been since our "resurection", but it was this way under Saban too. Our best offensive years this decade were 2003, 2006 and 2007. That's it.
I have more questions once these are addressed. Either way, this is cool.
First off, this is just OFFENSIVE ranks, correct? This doesn't take into account how great our defense and ST have done as well, right? For example, on defense, you have several outliers. One, right off hand, would be Mo Claiborne, a 2 star recruit who ended up being a first round pick in the NFL. There are several others as well. That is clearly doing more...
Next, does this take into account what types of schedules LSU has been playing? For example, everyone here loves to suck Saban's cock, but damn it has to be easy on you when your toughest division rivals have to go through a gauntlet that, by design of Bama alumni running the SEC, are two to three times harder than yours annually. Isn't it easier to do more when you only have to play maybe two ranked teams all year, and have the luxury of knowing you can lose one of them? That has to factor in this as well...
What about games where LSU was blowing people out? While people love to bash on Miles, he has won a LOT of games (and many against top programs) where the LSU offense literally needed to sit on the ball the majority of the second half in order to finish the game. Some notables: The ENTIRE frickING 2011 Season (minus the Game of the Century that didn't count), several big games in 2005, 2006 (AZ comes to mind right away), 2007 (Va Tech), 2008 (Bowl), etc.
Don't get me wrong, I KNOW LSU's offense is average/below average. It has been since our "resurection", but it was this way under Saban too. Our best offensive years this decade were 2003, 2006 and 2007. That's it.
I have more questions once these are addressed. Either way, this is cool.
Posted on 1/6/13 at 8:51 am to CptBengal
Fire everyone. Hire Saban. Right?
Posted on 1/6/13 at 2:55 pm to CptBengal
Get a life
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