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Predict the 12/31/2013 prices. The winners for 2013 are listed on page 9.

Posted on 1/1/13 at 2:12 pm
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
128380 posts
Posted on 1/1/13 at 2:12 pm
Predict where the markets will be one year from now!

To be eligible for the Grand Prize at the end of the year, you must make a prediction in each of the categories below. You can choose to not make a prediction in some of the categories and still be eligible to win individual category medals. Gold, Silver and Bronze Medals will be awarded for each category plus an overall 1st, 2nd and 3rd place winners for Best Overall predictions.

Winners in individual categories will decided by having a prediction with the smallest deviation from the actual 2013 year end prices. The overall winner will be determined by having the smallest average deviation from actual prices for all the categories below.

All predictions must be posted by January 10, 2013 and no edits to predictions after that date are allowed.

For 2012, the overall winners were:

Overall Best Average Predictions:
Gold Medal: PlanoPrivateer: 9.16% average deviation
Silver Medal: C: 9.20% average deviation
Bronze Medal: lynxcat: 10.02% average deviation

All of the 2012 prediction results are here: LINK

12/31/12 (Beginning prices for 2013)

Dow Jones Industrials: 13,104.14
S&P 500: 1,426.19
Nasdaq: 3,019.51
EUR/USD: 1.3197
10 year bond: 1.761%
30 year bond: 2.953%
Gold: $1,675.80/oz.
Silver: $30.227/oz.
Oil: $91.82/barrel
Natural gas: $3.351
Wholesale gasoline: $2.7617/gallon

I'll start. My predictions are:

Dow Jones Industrials: 12,975.00
S&P 500: 1,400.00
Nasdaq: 2,950.00
EUR/USD: 1.2900
10 year bond: 1.961%
30 year bond: 3.253%
Gold: $1,650.80/oz.
Silver: $30.90/oz.
Crude Oil (NYME): $93.50/barrel
Natural gas: $3.65
Wholesale gasoline: $2.95/gallon


Let's do this!!!
This post was edited on 12/31/13 at 5:09 pm
Posted by Layabout
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2011
11082 posts
Posted on 1/1/13 at 2:36 pm to
I think the markets are poised for a sustained recovery from the recession now that most of the political uncertainty has been put to rest. The Dow will surpass its 2007 high of 14,000 and approach 15,000. It's time to be bullish.
Posted by rmc
Truth or Consequences
Member since Sep 2004
26833 posts
Posted on 1/1/13 at 2:47 pm to
Dow Jones Industrials: 14,150.50
S&P 500: 1,473.50
Nasdaq: 3,310.50
EUR/USD: 1.25
10 year bond: 2.100%
30 year bond: 3.300%
Gold: $1,600.00oz.
Silver: $28.875/oz.
Oil: $85.00/barrel
Natural gas: $4.250
Wholesale gasoline: $2.70/gallon
Posted by acgeaux129
We are BR
Member since Sep 2007
15011 posts
Posted on 1/1/13 at 3:15 pm to


Dow Jones Industrials: 13,700.14
S&P 500: 1,451.20
Nasdaq: 3,200.42
EUR/USD: 1.3050
10 year bond: 1.84%
30 year bond: 3.155%
Gold: $1,670.22/oz.
Silver: $32.068/oz.
Oil: $97.82/barrel
Natural gas: $4.073
Wholesale gasoline: $2.8423/gallon
Posted by foshizzle
Washington DC metro
Member since Mar 2008
40599 posts
Posted on 1/1/13 at 6:45 pm to
quote:

Dow Jones Industrials: 12,975.00


In that case, I'll take 12,974.99.

Is someone else bidding 12974.98?
Posted by C
Houston
Member since Dec 2007
27890 posts
Posted on 1/1/13 at 7:56 pm to
Russian, it really worries me that your predicting a flat market for next year. I hope you are wrong...

Dow Jones Industrials: 14200
S&P 500: 1,520
Nasdaq: 3,300
EUR/USD: 1.40
10 year bond: 1.95
30 year bond: 3.2
Gold: $1,650
Silver: $30
Oil: $85
Natural gas: $3.95
Wholesale gasoline: $2.60 gallon

This post was edited on 1/10/13 at 1:22 pm
Posted by threeputt
God's Country
Member since Sep 2008
24792 posts
Posted on 1/1/13 at 8:03 pm to
Dow jones: 14,858.14
S&P: 1,725.19
NASDAQ: 3567.51
Eur/usd: 1.2977
10 year bond: 1.861%
30 year bond: 2.995%
gold: $1,625.80/oz
Silver: $30.025/oz
Oil: $95.82/ barrel
Natural gas: $3.851
Wholesale gas: $2.95617/ gallon
Posted by djmicrobe
Planet Earth
Member since Jan 2007
4970 posts
Posted on 1/1/13 at 8:28 pm to

Dow Jones Industrials: 12,104.14
S&P 500: 1,326.19
Nasdaq: 2719.51
EUR/USD: 1.29
10 year bond: 1.561%
30 year bond: 2.531%
Gold: $1,775.80/oz.
Silver: $35.227/oz.
Oil: $87.82/barrel
Natural gas: $3.51
Wholesale gasoline: $2.617/gallon

If NO cliff deal passes, then I will have to edit my numbers lower.

Posted by saving$
Member since Nov 2012
34 posts
Posted on 1/1/13 at 8:32 pm to
Dow Jones Industrials: 13798.70
S&P 500: 1504.63
Nasdaq: 3176.52
EUR/USD: 1.3311
10 year bond: 2.083%
30 year bond: 3.335%
Gold: $1,455.93/oz.
Silver: $28.85/oz.
Crude Oil (NYME): $102.53/barrel (WTI)
Natural gas: $3.25 (NYMEX)
Wholesale gasoline: $3.03/gallon

Edited my wholesale gas price 1/1/13.

Good luck all!
This post was edited on 1/1/13 at 8:35 pm
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
128380 posts
Posted on 1/2/13 at 7:57 am to
I've added Lookin4Par, BigBoyTiger, LSU0358, C, threeputt, djmicrobe and saving$ predictions to my spreadsheet.

Again, if any of you change any of your numbers before the 1/10/13 deadline, please make a separate post about the changes or you risk me not seeing your changes.

I will copy and paste the spreadsheet in a post after the 1/10 deadline passes so you can proofread what I've entered for everyone. I'm not the most accurate typist. That's why god created secretaries.

I plan on posting periodic updates of the to-date results of our predictions as the year goes on.

We now have 10 persons participating. We need at least 5 or 6 more financial gurus to make their predictions to give us a real good spread.

C'mon, TD.com Money Talk geniuses, JUST DO IT!
Posted by OnTheBrink
TN
Member since Mar 2012
5418 posts
Posted on 1/2/13 at 8:12 am to
Dow Jones Industrials: 13,860.52
S&P 500: 1,482.31
Nasdaq: 3,050.65
EUR/USD: 1.355
10 Year Bond: 1.90%
30 Year Bond: 3.05%
Gold: $1,765.25/oz.
Silver: $35.85/oz.
Crude Oil: $92.75/barrel
Natural Gas: $3.72
Wholesale Gasoline: $2.86/gallon
Posted by C
Houston
Member since Dec 2007
27890 posts
Posted on 1/2/13 at 8:33 am to
Russian,
I don't think we are diverse enough in what we are predicting. How different will the deltas be for each of the major stock indicies? Treasuries? Oil and gasoline? To me this puts too much weight in those areas unless you think more weight should be on those areas. Why is the Euro more important than asian currencies? Anyways, just food for thought. I probably should have said something before the end of the year as the cats out of the bag now...
Posted by white perch
the bright, happy side of hell
Member since Apr 2012
7267 posts
Posted on 1/2/13 at 9:17 am to
Here's my guess:

Dow Jones Industrials: 12,000
S&P 500: 1,200
Nasdaq: 2,700
EUR/USD: 1.2
10 year bond: 1.9%
30 year bond: 3.1%
Gold: $1,700.00/oz.
Silver: $35.00/oz.
Oil: $95.00/barrel
Natural gas: $3.00
Wholesale gasoline: $3.00/gallon

Posted by buddhavista
Member since Jul 2012
3543 posts
Posted on 1/2/13 at 11:32 am to
Dow Jones Industrials: 13,840.00
S&P 500: 1,550.00
Nasdaq: 3,130.00
EUR/USD: 1.2200
10 year bond: 1.75%
30 year bond: 3%
Gold: $1,550/oz.
Silver: $27.50/oz.
Crude Oil (NYME): $84.50/barrel
Natural gas: $3.20
Wholesale gasoline: $2.55/gallon
Posted by reb13
Member since May 2010
10905 posts
Posted on 1/2/13 at 11:37 am to
Dow Jones Industrials: 14500.14
S&P 500: 1600.19
Nasdaq: 3,300.51
EUR/USD: 1.356
10 year bond: 1.998%
30 year bond: 3.057%
Gold: $1,780.80/oz.
Silver: $35.227/oz.
Oil: $81.22/barrel
Natural gas: $3.750
Wholesale gasoline: $2.5678/gallon
This post was edited on 1/2/13 at 11:41 am
Posted by PlanoPrivateer
Frisco, TX
Member since Jan 2004
2831 posts
Posted on 1/2/13 at 3:33 pm to
When Chicken called to give me the good news and bestowed my free membership to TigerDroppings he asked how I won. I told him it was basic, solid old school analysis ….the dart board.

I’ve dusted off the darts and here are my guesses for this year, a small increase for equities and almost no change in interest rates until 2014.

DJI: 13,900
S&P 500: 1500
NASDAQ: 3170
EUR/USD: 1.32
10 year bond: 1.8%
30 year bond: 3.05%
Gold: $1675.00
Silver: $30.20
Oil: $95.00
Natural Gas: $3.50
Wholesale gasoline: $2.85
Posted by braindeadboxer
Utopia
Member since Nov 2011
8742 posts
Posted on 1/2/13 at 3:54 pm to
Dow Jones Industrials: 14,207.52
S&P 500: 1,722.35
Nasdaq: 3,103.22
EUR/USD: 1.1678
10 year bond: 1.7895%
30 year bond: 3.326%
Gold: $1,880.61/oz.
Silver: $33.444/oz.
Oil: $102.99/barrel
Natural gas: $3.643
Wholesale gasoline: $2.9864/gallon

ETA: Edited to correct monstrous error on NASDAQ
This post was edited on 1/2/13 at 11:10 pm
Posted by LSUtoOmaha
Nashville
Member since Apr 2004
26602 posts
Posted on 1/2/13 at 11:16 pm to
Dow Jones Industrials: 13,265.00
S&P 500: 1,429.00
Nasdaq: 2,920.00
EUR/USD: 1.24
10 year bond: 2.3%
30 year bond: 3.9%
Gold: $1,725.0oz.
Silver: $32.70/oz.
Crude Oil (NYME): $86.00
Natural gas: $3.40
Wholesale gasoline: $2.75/gallon
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
124376 posts
Posted on 1/3/13 at 12:57 pm to
Dow Jones Industrials: 14,005.00
S&P 500: 1,528.00
Nasdaq: 3,251.00
EUR/USD: 1.2400
10 year bond: 2.001%
30 year bond: 3.642%
Gold: $1,825.00/oz.
Silver:$34.00/oz.
Crude Oil (NYME): $95.00/barrel
Natural gas: $4.00
Wholesale gasoline: $3.20/gallon
Posted by tigeraddict
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2007
12129 posts
Posted on 1/4/13 at 10:38 am to
Dow Jones Industrials: 13,800
S&P 500: 1,480
Nasdaq: 3,120
EUR/USD: 1.275
10 year bond: 1.925%
30 year bond: 3.085%
Gold: $1,825/oz.
Silver: $31.50/oz.
Oil: $95.00/barrel
Natural gas: $3.125
Wholesale gasoline: $2.85/gallon
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