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re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED
Posted on 11/22/11 at 11:40 am to Trashy Hog
Posted on 11/22/11 at 11:40 am to Trashy Hog
quote:
We need to somehow win by two touchdowns and (and I can't believe I'm saying this), pull for Auburn againts Alabama. Otherwise, I'm kinda afraid a 3 point Arkie win plus a 'Bama stompdown of Aubbie could leave us at #3.....sh*t!
Yeah, I think the Bama-Auburn game is just as important as @LSU for arkansas. If you both win, Bama will go to the SECCG, and the thing that hasn't been talked about much is the shifts in the final poll where the entire season is looked at. Despite the win @LSU, LSU will have the higher computer rating, and the better looking overall season. You may have 1 Bama, 2 Ark, 3 LSU going into SECCG, and then 1 Bama 2 LSU after the weekend concludes.
1
Posted on 11/22/11 at 11:55 am to Eternalmajin
quote:
Yeah, I think the Bama-Auburn game is just as important as @LSU for arkansas. If you both win, Bama will go to the SECCG
that seems to be in dispute per the people doing the math in this thread
Yes, I know many were told there would be no math but LSU might well (probably would actually) back into the SEC CCG if they lose to Arky and Bama beats Auburn
Posted on 11/22/11 at 12:07 pm to molsusports
Sorry, I was assuming that they do drop LSU to #3, just failed to put that in. The rest of post assumed that though.
The problem is having no idea how the voters will react. In my hypothetical, there's an overreaction to the "now" (LSU loss) and we're dropped enough for Ark to hit 2. After the SECCG, they look at full season, realize LSU had a better on despite that loss, and we are back at 2.
The problem is having no idea how the voters will react. In my hypothetical, there's an overreaction to the "now" (LSU loss) and we're dropped enough for Ark to hit 2. After the SECCG, they look at full season, realize LSU had a better on despite that loss, and we are back at 2.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 12:14 pm to Eternalmajin
read earlier pages in the thread and I think you will readjust your prediction
Posted on 11/22/11 at 1:22 pm to molsusports
So, I think this proves Jerry Palm should stick to trying to predict the NCAA tournament bracket and leave the BCS to those that understand the importance of the computers.....He still thinks LSU finishes third in the SEC West if we lose to Arky.
LINK
LINK
This post was edited on 11/22/11 at 2:22 pm
Posted on 11/22/11 at 1:32 pm to SuperRemo
IF ANYONE on this board thinks that we can lose to Arkansas and still go to any one of the championships( SEC or NC), I want to have what you have been smoking. The pollsters & computers would crucify us for losing at home, and we would droip to 3, maybe 4 if OkState beats the sooners. In the immortal words of the late, great Al davis: "JUST WIN, BABY!"
Posted on 11/22/11 at 1:51 pm to shrevetiger53
quote:
IF ANYONE on this board thinks that we can lose to Arkansas and still go to any one of the championships( SEC or NC), I want to have what you have been smoking. The pollsters & computers would crucify us for losing at home, and we would droip to 3, maybe 4 if OkState beats the sooners. In the immortal words of the late, great Al davis: "JUST WIN, BABY!"
Sure.
We lose to Arkansas
Arkansas loses to uga
OU beats osu
That's a way we go to the national championship and not the sec
Posted on 11/22/11 at 2:08 pm to hashtag
quote:
Prior to Conference Championship weekend, every voter will realize that the only teams with a chance to make the BCSNCG if everyone wins out is LSU, Bama, and OSU. There is literally nothing the voters can do to get any other team in.
Just because most posters on TD may be focused only on the BCSCG that doesn't mean that every voter will be arranging their #1-#5 only with manipulating the CG in mind.
Again, I posted 2006 and 2007 as an example. In those years, as I mentioned, votes were split all over the place including lots of #2 and #3 votes for teams that really had no chance to make the final game just like 1 loss Stanford or Virginia Tech teams this year.
Everyone just seems so gung ho to point out any slight thing Oklahoma St has in it's favor that any competing logic gets dismissed without any serious thought.
For example, how many times has anyone said this: Stanford is only assured an automatic BCS bowl bid by finishing #4 in the final BCS rankings. Could that possibly prompt a few west coast voters to keep them at #3 when they already have them there? Maybe, if they have a voting "agenda", that could possibly be higher on it?
Who knows but my point is simply that people are blatantly disregarding that voters have often shown anything but a tendency to ALL have the same thoughts.
That's probably why almost every analyst with no specific rooting interest is saying Oklahoma St's more realistic chance depends on VT and Stanford losses.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 2:20 pm to wm72
Their best chance does involve VT and Stanford losing, but it's not a requirement. But yes, with so much hinging on the human votes, anything we throw out on here is purely guesswork on what we think the polls will reflect. Teams can be lower or higher than what we expect from poll to poll.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 2:24 pm to Kingpin
Don't know if it's been discussed anywhere in the last 34 pages, but I think the coaches poll is somewhat ridiculous.
How many teams other than the one they are playing on a given week do you think any of the coaches have ever watched? Does anyone here think the coaches can decide who is worthy of number one? They play 12 games a year and I doubt they really have time to watch anything other than the next team they play. THEN, they get to vote for themselves! And their vote is 1/3 of the criteria. Any thoughts on this?
How many teams other than the one they are playing on a given week do you think any of the coaches have ever watched? Does anyone here think the coaches can decide who is worthy of number one? They play 12 games a year and I doubt they really have time to watch anything other than the next team they play. THEN, they get to vote for themselves! And their vote is 1/3 of the criteria. Any thoughts on this?
Posted on 11/22/11 at 2:34 pm to LSUCouyon
quote:
Don't know if it's been discussed anywhere in the last 34 pages, but I think the coaches poll is somewhat ridiculous.
How many teams other than the one they are playing on a given week do you think any of the coaches have ever watched? Does anyone here think the coaches can decide who is worthy of number one? They play 12 games a year and I doubt they really have time to watch anything other than the next team they play. THEN, they get to vote for themselves! And their vote is 1/3 of the criteria. Any thoughts on this?
they are more qualified than the media guys who have never played football.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 2:56 pm to LSUCouyon
quote:
Don't know if it's been discussed anywhere in the last 34 pages, but I think the coaches poll is somewhat ridiculous.
How many teams other than the one they are playing on a given week do you think any of the coaches have ever watched? Does anyone here think the coaches can decide who is worthy of number one? They play 12 games a year and I doubt they really have time to watch anything other than the next team they play. THEN, they get to vote for themselves! And their vote is 1/3 of the criteria. Any thoughts on this?
Most of the time, the SID for the schools who have a vote cast them, not the coaches themselves.
I wonder if Bonnette casts his vote for Oklahoma State if they beat OU in two weeks?\
Like we've rehashed earlier: Only 25% of voters need to move OSU to #2 in the respective Harris and Coaches for Oklahoma State to bump Alabama.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 2:56 pm to hashtag
surely the voters arent stupid enough to throw the VT team into the pit with any of the 3 mentioned SEC west teams..
who did they play this year? Clemson?
yea, go ahead and feed them to Ala. or LSU.
who did they play this year? Clemson?
yea, go ahead and feed them to Ala. or LSU.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 3:02 pm to LSUAlum2001
I think most of the coaches take their final vote seriously for two reasons:
1) They know that vote will be made public.
2) Most of them are idle on the first Saturday in December which means they have time to watch games and do a little reseasrch.
1) They know that vote will be made public.
2) Most of them are idle on the first Saturday in December which means they have time to watch games and do a little reseasrch.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 3:03 pm to lsumatt
so what happens if osu, bama, arkansas, va tech loses. what 2 loss champion do we get? or does 1 loss stanford that doesnt win their division get in?
Or if uga wins the sec do they get a rematch with 1 loss lsu?
Or if uga wins the sec do they get a rematch with 1 loss lsu?
This post was edited on 11/22/11 at 3:04 pm
Posted on 11/22/11 at 3:08 pm to dgnx6
this is going to be a good weekend. Glad we play on friday so i can watch the chaos.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 3:09 pm to dgnx6
quote:
so what happens if osu, bama, arkansas, va tech loses. what 2 loss champion do we get? or does 1 loss stanford that doesnt win their division get in?
Stanford may lose to Notre Dame.
It would be either OU, Stanford, or Boise in your scenario.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 3:17 pm to LSUAlum2001
quote:
It would be either OU, Stanford, or Boise in your scenario.
Would stanford stay ahead of oregon if stanford beats ND and oregon wins pac12?
Posted on 11/22/11 at 3:21 pm to dgnx6
quote:
Would stanford stay ahead of oregon if stanford beats ND and oregon wins pac12?
Yes. Oregon will get to play a bad UCLA or Utah team in the Pac12CG.
No boost from winning that shitty conference.
This post was edited on 11/22/11 at 3:22 pm
Posted on 11/22/11 at 5:27 pm to Torqueless
quote:
surely the voters arent stupid enough to throw the VT team into the pit with any of the 3 mentioned SEC west teams.. who did they play this year? Clemson? yea, go ahead and feed them to Ala. or LSU.
That has a "Gladiator-esque" like feel. And not like the movie. Like the poor people they used to feed to the lions in Rome
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