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re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED

Posted on 11/24/11 at 11:19 pm to
Posted by lsumatt
Austin
Member since Feb 2005
12812 posts
Posted on 11/24/11 at 11:19 pm to
I think the Aggie loss could be very close to breaking Arkansas' last hopes of making the SECCG unless they really destroy LSU (which of course I don't believe would happen).

I think/thought there was a chance Arky could pass Bama in a couple of computers, but they sort of needed Texas A&M to win. If Penn State wins and/or South Carolina loses, Arkansas may need a miracle to finish in the top 2 of the BCS.

If the final computers are :

1. Ok State
2. LSU
3. Bama
4. Arky

LSU could have almost every voter put LSU 3rd behind Bama and Arkansas and we would still make it into the SECCG. If LSU gets above Ok State in a couple computers (and I think they will), LSU gets even more breathing room.
This post was edited on 11/24/11 at 11:48 pm
Posted by Choupique19
The cheap seats
Member since Sep 2005
61731 posts
Posted on 11/24/11 at 11:34 pm to
quote:

I think the Aggie loss could be very close to breaking Arkansas' last hopes of making the SECCG


quote:

LSU gets even more breathing room.


Well in that case, I take it back. "Ref, that was a great call, the A&M defender clearly went head-hunting on that pass well after the pass was incomplete."

Posted by purplepylon
NOLA & Laffy
Member since Nov 2005
7763 posts
Posted on 11/24/11 at 11:52 pm to
Brad Edwards said that if LSU loses to Arkansas they will fall to #3 in the BCS. He said that on Sunday. From then until now, he has changed his mind 3 times. It went from a definite #3, to maybe #2, to probably #2, to now possibly #1 still.
Posted by Kingpin
Tuscaloosa
Member since Jan 2009
3565 posts
Posted on 11/25/11 at 12:15 am to
So does this mean that if the human voters rank us as Arky, then LSU, then Bama, the BCS result prior to the SECCG will probably be LSU, then Bama, then Arky?

If so, does that change who Bama fans should root for tomorrow since there's little chance of us getting sent to #3 in the BCS by an Arky win? Does an Arky win provide us with any additional buffer with respect to Okie State?

If it doesn't really matter either way, I'll be pulling for you guys.
Posted by CalTiger53
California
Member since Oct 2011
9034 posts
Posted on 11/25/11 at 1:04 am to
On Nov. 5 LSU ranked #1 played Alabama ranked #2 at Alabama and won. You would think LSU would have been rewarded for the win and Alabama penalized. After 3 weeks, however, LSU is ranked #1 and Alabama is still #2.Additionally, If both LSU and Alabama win this weekend, media say Alabama is a lock to go to New Orleans for the BCS championship game while LSU would have to play again in the SEC championship game. Alabama would be rewarded for failing to make its conference championship game. Don't you think the voters should send another one loss team to NO instead of Alabama?
Posted by Bryant91092
Member since Dec 2009
24449 posts
Posted on 11/25/11 at 1:11 am to
Posted by FTL Tiger
Fort Lauderdale
Member since Jun 2008
539 posts
Posted on 11/25/11 at 7:22 am to
Thanks for update Matt. I was thinking the same thing, but it's nice for you to confirm it.
Posted by pensacola
pensacola
Member since Sep 2005
4627 posts
Posted on 11/25/11 at 7:32 am to
Every Gump on the planet states emphatically that a win vs the chickens gets them in the bcsncg. End of story. No matter what.

If bama doesn't go, lock up your oak trees, cause its gonna get ugly.
Posted by Coonass
Buckhead
Member since Sep 2005
2755 posts
Posted on 11/25/11 at 8:23 am to
the TexAM loss not only put helped LSU to get the SECCG game, but also closes the gap btw OKst and bama.

i'll leave it up to LSUMat to tell us how much it helps, but that win by Tex has to help since OKst beat Texas and Texas will stay at 25, if not move up some.

the stars are aligning for an LSU/OKst BCSCG.
Posted by LsuSaintsMan
Chattanooga, TN
Member since Nov 2003
1532 posts
Posted on 11/25/11 at 8:44 am to
quote:

the TexAM loss not only put helped LSU to get the SECCG game, but also closes the gap btw OKst and bama.
care to explain? OSU is ranked ahead of Bama in the computers already, so are you talking about the human polls?

Plus what does an arKansas opponent have to do with Bama and OSU?
Posted by Coonass
Buckhead
Member since Sep 2005
2755 posts
Posted on 11/25/11 at 10:24 am to
quote:

care to explain? OSU is ranked ahead of Bama in the computers already, so are you talking about the human polls?


i'm not talking about LSU and the SEC championship game. my post presumes LSU to SEC championship.

my post/thought relates to the next step. who would LSU play in the BCS game?

presuming OKst wins against OU, it seems to me OKst best chance to go ahead of bama to the BCS would be to build up as much a lead in the computer polls, b/c bama will likely have an advantage in the human polls.

OKst played and beat Texas. played TexAgs, too. but they are already unranked. so, to the extent OKst's opponents who are ranked and that they've beaten continues to win, it improves their computer results (my thought, but will defer to LSUmat and others). the Texas win over TexAgs helps OKst in their BCS chances

according to LSUmat and other 'experts' on BCS calculations, it will be close between OKst and bama for the BCS (presuming they both win out). that game last night helps OKst, albeit a small amount, it helps.

Just saying.


This post was edited on 11/25/11 at 10:28 am
Posted by MiaTigah
New Orleans
Member since Jun 2009
447 posts
Posted on 11/25/11 at 10:54 am to
I hate the Gumps defending their loss to us as: "We don't have a good kicker." There was a reason they were having to kick 52 yard field goals...
Posted by noladan
new orleans
Member since Nov 2003
3802 posts
Posted on 11/25/11 at 11:25 am to
Yeah, you might be right, but I think it's a wash for Oklahoma St, since they beat both Texas and Texas A&M. The computers don't take human rankings int effect. Though,Matt or someone did say that quality wins do boost the computer score, so I guess if Texas is considered a " good win", then it may help in them in the computers.
Posted by hashtag
Comfy, AF
Member since Aug 2005
27463 posts
Posted on 11/25/11 at 10:19 pm to
So, now that Arky lost, we know OSU is moving up at least one spot to 6 in the human polls. How much ground do they make up this week in the BCS?
Posted by pensacola
pensacola
Member since Sep 2005
4627 posts
Posted on 11/26/11 at 9:08 am to
Kinda quiet now....
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