BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED

COACHES POLL

HARRIS POLL

BCS STANDINGS

My Updated Thoughts:

1) REMATCH Bama looks to be in much better shape now with the weekend upsets, but I still think Oklahoma State could pass them with a win over OU - it would be close in my opinion. Ok State's computer score would be much better than Bama's and Oklahoma State would only need ~25% of voters to give them the nod over Bama and that doesn't seem like a hard sell when Bama didn't win their division and already lost to LSU. Losses by Va Tech and Stanford might HURT Alabama because they are stealing some anti-Bama votes from OSU right now.

I think Va Tech's computer score is too weak right now to knock out Bama. But the ACC does have 4 games left against the SEC and a clean sweep could valult Va Tech's computer ranking (not sure it would be enough). Stanford has no real shot unless they maybe squeak in the Pac12 title game - and even then not really.

2) SECCG loss It should be definite now that LSU could lose the SECCG to Georgia and finish 12-1 and easily make the NC game. I can't fathom LSU being left out. I am not even sure we need to show up.

3) 3-WAY SECW TIE?If Arky beats LSU, there will be a 3-way tie to go to the SECCG (provided Bama beats AU). What LSU needs is for Arky to finish third of 3 in the BCS so they get eliminated from the tie breaker and we would go to the SECCG. It doesn't matter if Bama finishes 1st and us 2nd, we would go because of the win over Bama.

While my bet is still on LSU squeaking in, I am more nervous now with the new computer scores. Arky really closed the gap on Alabama and I think could pass Bama in at least a couple computers. LSU would still be solidly above both in the computers, but would it be enough to overcome whatever the human polls do? I still say yes. I would think the difference in the 3 teams in the human polls are razor thin with Bama getting a slight edge because they beat Arky by 24. Then LSU has BY FAR the best resume, but Arky has the most recent win. As long as Bama has a small edge over Arky in the polls and LSU keeps it relatively close (and I mean like 10-20% of voters put LSU over Arky), LSU should be fine. So A blowout loss would be no good.

Now, bad things could happen. We want LSU's and Bama's computer score to be higher than Arky's so other games need to go our way. We would pull for:

1. Bama over AU
2. Texas over A&M
3. Clemson over SC
4. PSU over Wisconsin
5. Oregon over OSU
6. WVU over Pitt (that game never means anything to LSU)
etc.

In the end, if I were a betting man and LSU lost to Arky by less than a TD I would say 75% chance LSU, 20% Bama, 5% Arky