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re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED

Posted on 11/22/11 at 5:34 pm to
Posted by RollTideRockStar
Member since Jan 2010
4477 posts
Posted on 11/22/11 at 5:34 pm to
(no message)
This post was edited on 11/22/11 at 5:35 pm
Posted by islstl
Austin, TX
Member since Nov 2006
794 posts
Posted on 11/22/11 at 7:46 pm to
quote:

So, I think this proves Jerry Palm should stick to trying to predict the NCAA tournament bracket and leave the BCS to those that understand the importance of the computers.....He still thinks LSU finishes third in the SEC West if we lose to Arky.
LINK


I don't see how Palm doesn't realize that no voter in their right mind would have Arkansas ranked ahead of Bama after they were embarrassed 38-14. Does he even know Bama called off the dogs in the entire 4th quarter (score could have been worse).

Arkansas won't get a single first place vote in that scenario. Palm knows the computer polls will be heavily in LSU's favor, so again surprised he doesn't spell that part out for us to show how terribly difficult it would be for Arkansas to jump us in the BCS.

Voters are much more saavy these days (Harris more so than Coaches) and they look at the body of work, especially when they know a team's BCS title chances are on the line.

They will take a long hard look at SOS, best wins, lone loss, margin of loss, etc. In the end, Arkansas may have great trouble just passing us for 2nd in the human polls. If that's the case, they won't sniff 2nd place in the BCS.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Carolinas
Member since Sep 2003
123863 posts
Posted on 11/22/11 at 7:48 pm to
quote:

WVU over Pitt (that game never means anything to LSU)



Posted by islstl
Austin, TX
Member since Nov 2006
794 posts
Posted on 11/22/11 at 7:50 pm to
quote:

IF ANYONE on this board thinks that we can lose to Arkansas and still go to any one of the championships( SEC or NC), I want to have what you have been smoking. The pollsters & computers would crucify us for losing at home, and we would droip to 3, maybe 4 if OkState beats the sooners. In the immortal words of the late, great Al davis: "JUST WIN, BABY!"



Okie State doesn't play OU until next weekend.

In the LSU losing to Arkansas scenario, all 3 SEC teams will be #1, #2 and #3 on ALL voter ballots. It's a free for all.
This post was edited on 11/22/11 at 7:52 pm
Posted by islstl
Austin, TX
Member since Nov 2006
794 posts
Posted on 11/22/11 at 7:53 pm to
quote:

Yes. Oregon will get to play a bad UCLA or Utah team in the Pac12CG.

No boost from winning that shitty conference.



UCLA is most certainly losing to USC, paving the way for a decent 9-3 Arizona State team.

Still semi-crappy however.
This post was edited on 11/22/11 at 7:54 pm
Posted by islstl
Austin, TX
Member since Nov 2006
794 posts
Posted on 11/22/11 at 7:55 pm to
quote:

Don't know if it's been discussed anywhere in the last 34 pages, but I think the coaches poll is somewhat ridiculous.
How many teams other than the one they are playing on a given week do you think any of the coaches have ever watched? Does anyone here think the coaches can decide who is worthy of number one? They play 12 games a year and I doubt they really have time to watch anything other than the next team they play. THEN, they get to vote for themselves! And their vote is 1/3 of the criteria. Any thoughts on this?




I've always complained about this.

Coaches don't have a lick of time to look at anything but maybe ESPN's College Gameday highlight show and some box scores. That's it. Imagine making out a top 25 based on that?

Coaches should not vote.
Posted by NorthshoreTiger76
Pelicans, Saints, & LSU Fan
Member since May 2009
80167 posts
Posted on 11/22/11 at 8:38 pm to
quote:

9-3 Arizona State team.



they are 6-5 right now
Posted by jonanthans
West Monroe, LA
Member since Nov 2007
2410 posts
Posted on 11/22/11 at 11:14 pm to
quote:

quote:


9-3 Arizona State team.





they are 6-5 right now


thats what I was thinking..
Posted by Lombardi44
Member since Feb 2010
372 posts
Posted on 11/22/11 at 11:18 pm to
The "actual" coaches vote about as often as the President writes his own speeches. Usually it is an SID or Asst AD who fllls out the ballot and turns it in.
Posted by TotalYatMove
Member since Oct 2010
1687 posts
Posted on 11/22/11 at 11:25 pm to
quote:

IF ANYONE on this board thinks that we can lose to Arkansas and still go to any one of the championships( SEC or NC), I want to have what you have been smoking. The pollsters & computers would crucify us for losing at home, and we would droip to 3, maybe 4 if OkState beats the sooners. In the immortal words of the late, great Al davis: "JUST WIN, BABY!"


LSU will most likely still be #1 in the computers. If not in all 4 keepers, then maybe 3 of them with one being #2. Arky will be lucky to move up to #3 in two keepers, with the other two being #4. More than likely, they will have three #4's and one #3. Bama will get the lion's share of 1st place votes in both human polls. The rest will go to Arky. Bama will probably get some 3rd place votes as well, since some voters will decide to put LSU ahead of them due to our game. LSU will get some second place votes, this I am fairly confident in. We will not get lower than a third place vote. The combo of votes in the human polls will determine if LSU moves to #2 or #3. I have the opinion that Arky will not get enough #1 votes to push them ahead.

Bama dropped 1 spot for losing to LSU at home. LSU, with their much better computer scores, has a good chance of doing the same for losing to the #3 team.

That being said, LSU-35 Ark-17.
Posted by GoldRing
Warner Robins, GA.
Member since May 2011
855 posts
Posted on 11/23/11 at 6:16 am to
Sueeee here pig pig pig pig:
Running fast into a freight train like this 2011 LSU football team. Is not my idea of winning anything but a quick violent way of going to the hospital. Arkansas fast running WR are going to just keep getting them self hurt if that is their bottom line. Kickoff is 1:00 PM cheep meat Friday.
Run fast to die, Hogs! Take your aim very carefully Wilson."WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO" "PIG!" "SOOIE!"


Posted by dudeilovebeer
Member since Jan 2008
839 posts
Posted on 11/23/11 at 6:22 am to
While we beat Bama on the scoreboard the voters know that game could have gone either way (lets be honest with ourselves). So if we get beat by Arky at home we aren't going to go to the SECCG. Tigers have to take care of business Friday.
Posted by GoldRing
Warner Robins, GA.
Member since May 2011
855 posts
Posted on 11/23/11 at 7:34 am to
Get Back is a #%$@&! *%^#$@
Geaux Tigers
Posted by islstl
Austin, TX
Member since Nov 2006
794 posts
Posted on 11/23/11 at 8:42 am to
quote:

they are 6-5 right now


I had them winning their last 2 games, never noticed they lost to Washington State and Arizona (egad)..

What a horrible coaching job by Dennis Erickson.

Look for him to be fired at season's end.
Posted by Frank Eaton1
Member since Nov 2011
11 posts
Posted on 11/23/11 at 12:42 pm to
Matt,

is there anyway that you can factor in the Coaches that will be biased for or against the Big 12 v. SEC? The only info is from the last public coaches poll that involved an SEC v. Big 12 argument:

LINK


Posted by trackfan
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2010
19691 posts
Posted on 11/23/11 at 1:10 pm to
I can tell you that Bob Stoops and Les Miles are total hacks. Forget about either of them voting with a conscience. In the final 2007 Coaches poll, Stoops' top three were Oklahoma, Missouri and Kansas, and Miles isn't much better.
Posted by lsumatt
Austin
Member since Feb 2005
12812 posts
Posted on 11/23/11 at 1:40 pm to
quote:

Les Miles are total hacks.


I can't say you are wrong, but can you give an example of Miles being a hack?
Posted by TotalYatMove
Member since Oct 2010
1687 posts
Posted on 11/23/11 at 1:47 pm to
quote:

but can you give an example of Miles being a hack?


I'm curious why he felt he should put Stoops' voting record in his last post, but did not have a similar anecdote for Miles.
Posted by shoelessjoe
Member since Jul 2006
9900 posts
Posted on 11/23/11 at 1:56 pm to
Matt I have read bits and pieces of this thread so I don't know if this has been answered but what are the chances of us playing Bama vs Okie St. or someone else? Would you say 50-50 between Bama and Okie St?
Posted by lsumatt
Austin
Member since Feb 2005
12812 posts
Posted on 11/23/11 at 1:59 pm to
quote:

Matt I have read bits and pieces of this thread so I don't know if this has been answered but what are the chances of us playing Bama vs Okie St. or someone else? Would you say 50-50 between Bama and Okie St?


While Bama is the frontrunner, I think Ok State has a very good shot and the talk of Bama being a "lock" is unsubstantiated imo. If Virginia Tech loses, I think Ok State has a better than 50% of making it.

Unless Bama loses (or LSU loses twice), no one outside of Bama and Ok State really have a shot.
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