OFFICIAL BCS/ NATIONAL TITLE DISCUSSION

BCS STANDINGS

Well AU, TCU, and Oregon all looked poise to fall in the first quarter, but all pulled out wins. I'll assume nothing will come of the Cam Newton scandal and LSU has no chance of an SEC title. That still leaves open a very slight chance at a National Title...you DO NOT have to win your conference to play for a National Championship (and don't bring up UGA...they could have played, they just weren't as deserving as LSU in 07). LSU will have an amazing computer score at 11-1, maybe better than anyone in the nation (but AU) including undefeated Oregon. But they need LOTS of help. At the very least the 2 of the following 3 would absolutely have to happen:

1. Oregon loses
2. TCU loses
3. Auburn loses to Bama and SC

It is almost impossible for LSU to pass undefeated TCU and make it into the title game. Also, if Auburn finishes 12-1 by losing to SC that almost certainly stay above LSU. While 2 of the above 3 HAVE to happen, I am mostly of the opinion that at least 2 of the following 3 also need to happen.

1. Boise loses
2. The Big12 champ (NU/Ok State) loses again
3. Wisconsin loses

Now I can see LSU finishing above any or all of those teams if a National Title is not on the line. But when push comes to shove, voters would be very inclined to vote the Big12 or Big 10 champ (and certainly Boise) above LSU for the NC. Even if LSU beat out NU/Wisconsin, they would probably steal enough votes from LSU to give Boise the human poll cushion it needs.

LSU VERSUS TCU ARGUMENT

There has been some talk of LSU passing undefeated TCU and no matter how I crunch the numbers and come up with different scenarios it seems almost impossible. Putting aside any "Cam Newton effect", it is silly to think that more than a handful of voters would put LSU above TCU. LSU's best shot at passing TCU would be the following:

1. Auburn loses twice
2. Oregon and TCU win out
3. Boise, Wisconsin, the Big12 champ, and probably Stanford/Ohio State all lose

#3 is a necessity because all of those teams would steal votes from LSU. I think LSU would be #1 in the computers and TCU would be #3; then LSU would only need to be within one full spot of TCU in the human polls. That almost seems plausible but I think TCU would get as many 1st place votes as LSU gets 2nd place votes. And this is in the ludicrous scenario where Boise, Wisconsin, Big 12 champ, Ohio State, and Stanford all lose (and AU loses twice).

* If there aren't NT implications, it is more possible that LSU passes TCU

BCS BOWL POSSIBILITIES

At 11-1 LSU would seem like a lock to make a BCS bowl. In fact, they may finish top 4 of the BCS making them an "auto qualifier". But if 12-0 Auburn loses to SC, then South Carolina goes to the Sugar and Auburn almost definitely finishes above LSU in the final BCS. If Auburn finished #3 or #4 above LSU, they get the auto bid and the SEC can only have 2 teams...so LSU is left in the cold.

Assuming AU won the SEC, LSU would have an excellent chance at 10-2 and it seems almost definite the SEC gets 2 teams in. If Bama and Arky each lose, LSU would almost certainly get that spot; otherwise it would be a tough call and that would be up to the Bowls to decide who brings the best draw (probably Bama).

BCS Bowl Projections:

1. NC game: AU versus Oregon
2. Sugar: LSU* versus Ohio State
3. Rose: Wisconsin versus TCU
4. Orange: Va Tech versus Pitt
5. Fiesta: Nebraska versus Boise

*The Sugar doesn't have to take LSU and some believe that the Sugar hates taking LSU because they don't sell hotel rooms, etc. But I think their relationship with the SEC makes it likely.