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re: OFFICIAL BCS/ NATIONAL TITLE DISCUSSION
Posted on 11/16/10 at 2:14 pm to slackster
Posted on 11/16/10 at 2:14 pm to slackster
quote:
Fail. They will almost certainly stay ahead of us in the computers. The polls are our only hope.
this
Of all debates, there seems to be a general agreement:
Auburn beating Bama, but losing to USCe = BAD for 11-1 LSU ... unless you like Mickey Mouse a lot.
Even for the Mickey lovers, Miami isn't terribly far from Orlando and Pasadena is pretty darn close to Anaheim.
This post was edited on 11/16/10 at 3:12 pm
0
Posted on 11/16/10 at 2:16 pm to slackster
quote:I guess it's not fail if it is not 100% certain. No one here knows the formulas for every computer poll. That's a fact. We are all guessing so don't be such a jackass. LSU is very strong in the computers and we still have a couple of teams out of conference that can help our rating in UNC and WVU if they continue to win. Also, the voters will be the main factor and as I said, if Auburn loses to a 3-4 loss team, they will fall more than 1 or 2 spots in the polls. Florida lost to an undefeated #2 ranked Alabama last year and fell from #1 to #5 in the polls. You guys are saying that if Auburn loses to a 3-4 loss USCe ranked from 15 to 25 they will only drop from #2 to #5. I don't see it...I think they will fall to around 6-8 and it could be worse with all the bad press they are getting with Cam. Some voters may be looking for a reason to drop them.
Fail. They will almost certainly stay ahead of us in the computers. The polls are our only hope.
Posted on 11/16/10 at 5:48 pm to XbengalTiger
quote:
No one here knows the formulas for every computer poll. That's a fact.
While I am not 100% certain, I am pretty damn close. LSU and Auburn basically play the exact same 8 game SEC schedule and if anything Auburn's is harder (South Carlina > Florida).
So looking at the extra games. LSU plays UNC, WVU + crap and Auburn plays Clemson, South Carolina (in the SECCG) + crap.
I can't come up with a logical argument as to why LSU would be ahead of Auburn in 4 of the 6 computer polls.
Posted on 11/16/10 at 6:09 pm to XbengalTiger
quote:
I guess it's not fail if it is not 100% certain.
Ok, I rescind my original comment.
quote:
Also, the voters will be the main factor and as I said, if Auburn loses to a 3-4 loss team, they will fall more than 1 or 2 spots in the polls. Florida lost to an undefeated #2 ranked Alabama last year and fell from #1 to #5 in the polls. You guys are saying that if Auburn loses to a 3-4 loss USCe ranked from 15 to 25 they will only drop from #2 to #5. I don't see it
If Auburn loses to USCe tomorrow, I could understand your argument. The problem is that this will be the final poll. The Coaches and Harris poll voters will look at a 12-1 Auburn team that won our division and an 11-1 LSU team that lost to Auburn. Auburn will have a win just as good as our 11 as well as a 12th win OVER US. As the highest ranked 1-loss team, we are the best win a team can have. However, we will have a "better" loss than Auburn. Keep in mind, however, that USCe would move up with the win while Auburn would move down with the loss. That means the computers will punish us more for the Auburn loss than they already do and they will not punish Auburn as much as you think because USCe will rise in the computers with the win.
Logically, however, I simply cannot see LSU getting ahead of Auburn in the human polls by enough points. I certainly, absolutely hope I am wrong, but it just does not look good for LSU if Auburn beats Bama and loses to USCe.
Posted on 11/16/10 at 6:50 pm to lsumatt
Thanks Matt, can someone explain for me how an undeafeated Oregon team who has played only 2 ranked teams is ahead of AU. I'm not an AU fan, but I think they've played a much more difficult schedule.
I realize Oregon has kicked the crap out of everyone they've played, but so would all of the top tier SEC teams so I still can't understand why SOS isn't taken into consideration, at least by the human pollsters.
I realize Oregon has kicked the crap out of everyone they've played, but so would all of the top tier SEC teams so I still can't understand why SOS isn't taken into consideration, at least by the human pollsters.
Posted on 11/16/10 at 7:59 pm to lsumatt
I want Boise so bad I CAN TASTE IT! 
Posted on 11/16/10 at 9:54 pm to Guava Jelly
Sorry if germans, but have you guys thought about this? Nothing is marked on stone, very much like 2007:
-Auburn loses to Bama and SC (they go 10-2)
-SC loses to Clemson but beats Auburn
-Oregon loses final reg season game
-Boise St loses 1 out of the 3 remaining games
-LSU wins out
Try to figure that one out. I know it is nearly impossible but 2007 was just like that. My guess that would leave LSU & TCU NCG.
-Auburn loses to Bama and SC (they go 10-2)
-SC loses to Clemson but beats Auburn
-Oregon loses final reg season game
-Boise St loses 1 out of the 3 remaining games
-LSU wins out
Try to figure that one out. I know it is nearly impossible but 2007 was just like that. My guess that would leave LSU & TCU NCG.
Posted on 11/17/10 at 4:18 pm to lsumatt
Posted on 11/21/10 at 7:59 am to Tigerik
quote:Oregon just looks like a better football team, to be honest. You can make an argument for Auburn, but if they stay #2 it is a moot point, as they will meet and decide it on the field.
I realize Oregon has kicked the crap out of everyone they've played, but so would all of the top tier SEC teams so I still can't understand why SOS isn't taken into consideration, at least by the human pollsters.
And I am not convinced that all the top SEC teams would win out with Oregon's schedule. Stanford is as good as any of them right now.
Posted on 11/21/10 at 8:23 am to lsumatt
I don't know why this thread is not stickied. I posted my scenario in another thread and then saw this thread. So here is what I believe will happen.
LSU will stay in the #5 spot in the BCS Poll today. 2 of the top 4 teams will lose next week with LSU soundly beating Arkansas on the road. This LSU team is confidently ready to play their best game of the year on Defense and Offense. There is more pressure on Arkansas for this game then LSU. If LSU were already in one of the top 2 BCS positions then LSU would have the pressure, not the case for this game. I'm thinking the losses will come to Oregon and Auburn leaving Boise State and TCU undefeated. If Boise State also loses to a once beaten Nevada then LSU will be a lock in one of the top 2 spots. I actually hope LSU and Auburn finish 1 & 2 for grins!) I don't think the pollsters will deny a one loss SEC team the NC game and place both Boise State and TCU in the NC game. And no, I'm not ignoring the SECCG. I believe Auburn will take a beating after they lose to Bama. I also don't think Cam will play in the SECCG. Just a feeling I have.
Also, LSU got to play against the Oregon style offense last night against Ole Miss and Masoli. Masoli finally looked like he did at Oregon last year setting up his run for the Heisman had he not been kicked off the Oregon team last year. LSU's defense has now seen Cam Newton and Oregon thru Masoli and will know how to prepare against the Oregon type of offense. I also expect Nutt to fully adapt the Oregon game next year at Ole Miss.
Now if this fails which it may. I hope LSU gets to play an undefeated Boise or TCU in one of the BCS Bowls. Either scenario gives LSU a great finish to their season!
LSU will stay in the #5 spot in the BCS Poll today. 2 of the top 4 teams will lose next week with LSU soundly beating Arkansas on the road. This LSU team is confidently ready to play their best game of the year on Defense and Offense. There is more pressure on Arkansas for this game then LSU. If LSU were already in one of the top 2 BCS positions then LSU would have the pressure, not the case for this game. I'm thinking the losses will come to Oregon and Auburn leaving Boise State and TCU undefeated. If Boise State also loses to a once beaten Nevada then LSU will be a lock in one of the top 2 spots. I actually hope LSU and Auburn finish 1 & 2 for grins!) I don't think the pollsters will deny a one loss SEC team the NC game and place both Boise State and TCU in the NC game. And no, I'm not ignoring the SECCG. I believe Auburn will take a beating after they lose to Bama. I also don't think Cam will play in the SECCG. Just a feeling I have.
Also, LSU got to play against the Oregon style offense last night against Ole Miss and Masoli. Masoli finally looked like he did at Oregon last year setting up his run for the Heisman had he not been kicked off the Oregon team last year. LSU's defense has now seen Cam Newton and Oregon thru Masoli and will know how to prepare against the Oregon type of offense. I also expect Nutt to fully adapt the Oregon game next year at Ole Miss.
Now if this fails which it may. I hope LSU gets to play an undefeated Boise or TCU in one of the BCS Bowls. Either scenario gives LSU a great finish to their season!
Posted on 11/21/10 at 8:28 am to loweralabamatrojan
quote:
Oregon just looks like a better football team, to be honest. You can make an argument for Auburn, but if they stay #2 it is a moot point, as they will meet and decide it on the field.
And I am not convinced that all the top SEC teams would win out with Oregon's schedule. Stanford is as good as any of them right now.
You think that AU would not win out with Oregon's schedule?
You think that LSU and Bama would have more difficulties with their schedule?
Dude - I realize that the Pac 10 is decent this year Oregon and Stanford and USC playing good ball at times - but it would be naive to think that any of them would have an easy time with the SEC schedule.
Stanford would definitely be a 2 loss team and Oregon would definitely have 1 loss.
There is a bloody reason that the SEC champ has won the BCS for the past 4 years in a row - they are really well prepared by the time they get to the Title game.
Posted on 11/23/10 at 10:18 am to lsumatt
FYI, here is a list of the coaches in the Coaches' Poll:
ACC
Jimbo Fisher, Florida State
Mike London, Virginia
Tom O'Brien, North Carolina State
Frank Beamer, Virginia Tech
Jim Grobe, Wake Forest
David Cutcliffe, Duke
Big East
Butch Jones, Cincinnati
Greg Schiano, Rutgers
Doug Marrone, Syracuse
Charlie Strong, Louisville
Big 10
Rich Rodriguez, Michigan
Ron Zook, Illinois
Bill Lynch, Indiana
Bret Bielema, Wisconsin
Jim Tressel, Ohio State
Mark Dantonio, Michigan State
Big 12
Paul Rhoads, Iowa State
Bo Pelini, Nebraska
Gary Pinkel, Missouri
Mike Sherman, Texas A&M
Tommy Tuberville, Texas Tech
Art Briles, Baylor
Conference USA
George O'Leary, Central Florida
Larry Fedora, Southern Miss
Kevin Sumlin, Houston
Bob Toledo, Tulane
Larry Porter, Memphis
David Bailiff, Rice
Independents
Brian Kelly, Notre Dame
Ken Niumatalolo, Navy
MAC
Tim Beckman, Toledo
Mike Haywood, Miami (Ohio)
Jeff Quinn, Buffalo
Jerry Kill, Northern Illinois
Dan Enos, Central Michigan
Al Golden, Temple
Mountain West
Mike Locksley, New Mexico
Dave Christensen, Wyoming
Kyle Whittingham, Utah
Steve Fairchild, Colorado State
PAC 10
Mike Riley, Oregon State
Steve Sarkisian, Washington
Paul Wulff, Washington State
Jim Harbaugh, Stanford
Mike Stoops, Arizona
SEC
Bobby Petrino, Arkansas
Nick Saban, Alabama
Dan Mullen, Mississippi State
Mark Richt, Georgia
Steve Spurrier, South Carolina
Urban Meyer, Florida
Sun Belt
Howard Schnellenberger, Florida Atlantic
Rick Stockstill, Middle Tennessee
Todd Berry, Louisiana-Monroe
Todd Dodge, North Texas
WAC
Robb Akey, Idaho
Sonny Dykes, Louisiana Tech
Chris Petersen, Boise State
Mike MacIntyre, San Jose State
ACC
Jimbo Fisher, Florida State
Mike London, Virginia
Tom O'Brien, North Carolina State
Frank Beamer, Virginia Tech
Jim Grobe, Wake Forest
David Cutcliffe, Duke
Big East
Butch Jones, Cincinnati
Greg Schiano, Rutgers
Doug Marrone, Syracuse
Charlie Strong, Louisville
Big 10
Rich Rodriguez, Michigan
Ron Zook, Illinois
Bill Lynch, Indiana
Bret Bielema, Wisconsin
Jim Tressel, Ohio State
Mark Dantonio, Michigan State
Big 12
Paul Rhoads, Iowa State
Bo Pelini, Nebraska
Gary Pinkel, Missouri
Mike Sherman, Texas A&M
Tommy Tuberville, Texas Tech
Art Briles, Baylor
Conference USA
George O'Leary, Central Florida
Larry Fedora, Southern Miss
Kevin Sumlin, Houston
Bob Toledo, Tulane
Larry Porter, Memphis
David Bailiff, Rice
Independents
Brian Kelly, Notre Dame
Ken Niumatalolo, Navy
MAC
Tim Beckman, Toledo
Mike Haywood, Miami (Ohio)
Jeff Quinn, Buffalo
Jerry Kill, Northern Illinois
Dan Enos, Central Michigan
Al Golden, Temple
Mountain West
Mike Locksley, New Mexico
Dave Christensen, Wyoming
Kyle Whittingham, Utah
Steve Fairchild, Colorado State
PAC 10
Mike Riley, Oregon State
Steve Sarkisian, Washington
Paul Wulff, Washington State
Jim Harbaugh, Stanford
Mike Stoops, Arizona
SEC
Bobby Petrino, Arkansas
Nick Saban, Alabama
Dan Mullen, Mississippi State
Mark Richt, Georgia
Steve Spurrier, South Carolina
Urban Meyer, Florida
Sun Belt
Howard Schnellenberger, Florida Atlantic
Rick Stockstill, Middle Tennessee
Todd Berry, Louisiana-Monroe
Todd Dodge, North Texas
WAC
Robb Akey, Idaho
Sonny Dykes, Louisiana Tech
Chris Petersen, Boise State
Mike MacIntyre, San Jose State
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