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Message
Next BCS Champ? History helps predict.
Posted on 1/28/10 at 7:27 am
Posted on 1/28/10 at 7:27 am
Odds are
-The next Champ will be from the SEC
-Will not be a repeat (AL)
-So that leaves LSU or FL IMO
-It all up to our OL. We were only a few plays away from the BCS.
-The next Champ will be from the SEC
-Will not be a repeat (AL)
-So that leaves LSU or FL IMO
-It all up to our OL. We were only a few plays away from the BCS.
16
Posted on 1/28/10 at 7:33 am to LSUcjb318
quote:
We were only a few plays away from the BCS
Posted on 1/28/10 at 7:40 am to LSUcjb318
quote:
-It all up to our OL. We were only a few plays away from the BCS.
Listen we all took the season pretty hard. Some worse than others, and I admit I've been drinking a bit more than usual. However, it appears you've moved on to smoking crack which IMHO is a bit excessive.
I prefer to think of myself as an optimist, but the truth is we were only a few plays from the Meineke Car Care Bowl as well.
See the game tapes from LaTech, UGA, MissST, and Arky for reference..
This post was edited on 1/28/10 at 12:49 pm
Posted on 1/28/10 at 7:51 am to LSUcjb318
The delusion on here is beginning to rival the La. Tech board.
Posted on 1/28/10 at 8:41 am to Lacour
Do you know what "odds" are. 
Little myopic are ya? 
Little myopic are ya? Posted on 1/28/10 at 8:42 am to beezerboy76
what are the odds on Old Miss beating Bama next year, then Bama going on to win the MNC, then Old Miss putting up a co-national champs banner? 
Posted on 1/28/10 at 8:48 am to Rohan2Reed
You guys realize that the Tech game should not even be considered from last year. We won while sleeping through that game. No one cared about that game.
Posted on 1/28/10 at 9:07 am to LSUcjb318
I guarantee neither LSU nor UF will even win the SEC next year, let alone the NC.
Posted on 1/28/10 at 9:12 am to Buckeye Fan 19
and this is coming for the BCS Chokaholics....
Posted on 1/28/10 at 9:15 am to LSUcjb318
It's just crazy to think that the last repeat champs in the SEC were the Vols.
Posted on 1/28/10 at 9:17 am to wiltznucs
quote:
I prefer to think of myself as an optimist, but the truth is we were only a few plays from the Meineke Car Care Bowl as well.
Strangely, both statements are true. If LSU gets the SAME replay Texas got against Ole Miss, we have an extra two seconds to spike the ball and kick the GW FG. That's one play. In the Bama game - take your pick. Lots of fluky plays went against LSU. Seriously, change two or three plays, LSU was in the BCS. Change two or three POSITIVE plays (the FG against Arkansas, any play by Chad Jones against Moo U), and we're in INSERT STRANGE SPONSOR HERE Bowl.
The season really could have gone either way, but it went 9-3 and in a New Years Bowl. It's hardly a stretch to say, with a little luck, LSU would've been in the BCS. With a little bad luck, we're 7-5.
Posted on 1/28/10 at 9:51 am to Baloo
quote:
Baloo
Good breakdown there. Question for you, though. All BCS Champs benefit from a touch of luck. There is no need in arguing that. But looking back at the '07 LSU championship, one finds 7 (I think) successful 4th down conversions, teams lining up which allowed a 2 loss team in, etc. Are LSU fans tired of living on the margin? You say in your post that "lots of fluky went against LSU", but is that not just things averaging out? Can what is presented on the field by Miles be attributed to skill or luck?
Posted on 1/28/10 at 9:51 am to LSUcjb318
quote:
Odds are
-The next Champ will be from the SEC
-Will not be a repeat (AL)
-So that leaves LSU or FL IMO
-It all up to our OL. We were only a few plays away from the BCS.
Let's see some basis here.
Odds actually do NOT favor an SEC team winning the game next year. 4 in a row from the same conference DEFIES odds, doesn't create future odds. This is like saying that if the past four powerball winners came from your family, the odds are that the next one will too.
The odds do not favor a repeat winner, true. But that doesn't mean that only UF and LSU are then eligible to be the next champ. There are 117 other D-I teams out there.
So, please tell us, how does history predict an LSU or UF title?
Posted on 1/28/10 at 9:55 am to LSUcjb318
quote:
We were only a few plays away from the BCS.
We are only a few plays from not going to a bowl game at all. (Miss St. goal line stand, GA Scott run).
Oh yeah. Arkansas in OT.
This post was edited on 1/28/10 at 10:13 am
Posted on 1/28/10 at 10:16 am to NBamaAlum
I've been giving lots of thought to luck recently, believe it or not. I think EVERY MNC benefits from extreme good luck, usually regarding injuries, which are an uncontrollable event, really.
Honestly, I fail to see how a "good play" equals "good luck". Chad Jones made a great play, two of them in fact, against Miss State. this is not luck, this is your best player making great plays. LSU not getting a replay against OM, all of the injuries against Bama, the non-INT: these are bad luck. Uncontrollable events out of LSU's hands (just as the penalty v. UGa was good luck, but there was a makeup call).
I don't think there is anything wrong with getting lucky. Luck is part of the game, and it's usually the dispositive factor among two evenly matched teams. One team gets the big break. People hate to admit that because they want to see virtue in the big win, when really it was just luck.
Circling back, I think LSU suffered bad luck in 2009. Just about any break was a negative one. That said, LSU was lucky in 2007, and this was just the football gods evening things out. If we win the MNC in titles in which we have good luck, I'm happy with that.
Honestly, I fail to see how a "good play" equals "good luck". Chad Jones made a great play, two of them in fact, against Miss State. this is not luck, this is your best player making great plays. LSU not getting a replay against OM, all of the injuries against Bama, the non-INT: these are bad luck. Uncontrollable events out of LSU's hands (just as the penalty v. UGa was good luck, but there was a makeup call).
I don't think there is anything wrong with getting lucky. Luck is part of the game, and it's usually the dispositive factor among two evenly matched teams. One team gets the big break. People hate to admit that because they want to see virtue in the big win, when really it was just luck.
Circling back, I think LSU suffered bad luck in 2009. Just about any break was a negative one. That said, LSU was lucky in 2007, and this was just the football gods evening things out. If we win the MNC in titles in which we have good luck, I'm happy with that.
Posted on 1/28/10 at 10:17 am to LSUcjb318
quote:
-The next Champ will be from the SEC
Doubtful
Posted on 1/28/10 at 11:58 am to Baloo
Baloo is right. Its called caprice da nature, or klik klak.
Yet, to answer the OP, I think that its more likely that some team OTHER than the SEC champ is the NC, just because the SEC has won the last several.
So... I take the 'field', all the other teams in D1.
Anyway, its statistically unlikely that even a superior conference like the SEC can keep up the streak.
No SEC team in the BCS champ game. Poll voters are swayed by undefeated records and their regional biases.
Yet, to answer the OP, I think that its more likely that some team OTHER than the SEC champ is the NC, just because the SEC has won the last several.
So... I take the 'field', all the other teams in D1.
Anyway, its statistically unlikely that even a superior conference like the SEC can keep up the streak.
No SEC team in the BCS champ game. Poll voters are swayed by undefeated records and their regional biases.
Posted on 1/28/10 at 12:40 pm to ottothewise
I've got a feeling that if Alabama doesn't win it, Ohio State ( 
) will.
) will.
Posted on 1/28/10 at 12:55 pm to LSUcjb318
quote:
Odds are
-The next Champ will be from the SEC
-Will not be a repeat (AL)
-So that leaves LSU or FL IMO
-It all up to our OL. We were only a few plays away from the BCS.
Holy shite you are a moron.
Posted on 1/28/10 at 1:02 pm to Baloo
Should top tier programs have to make last minute goal line stands to win games against marginal opponents?
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