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'The Mandalorian and Grogu’ Early Box Office Predictions Are Not Looking Great
Posted on 4/13/26 at 8:14 pm
Posted on 4/13/26 at 8:14 pm
Looking to come in under "Solo"
LINK
many are projecting $71 million
But even at 85 domestic. . .for a Star Wars film!
Holy shite. I knew enthusiasm for the IP was way down, but I honestly had no idea it was this bleak
That was the shot, here is the chaser:
LINK
quote:
As of April, 2026, estimates put the film’s domestic opening at $70-$85 million. While that seems like a solid number, it’s lower than the opening of “Solo: A Star Wars Story,” which opened to over $100 million.
many are projecting $71 million
But even at 85 domestic. . .for a Star Wars film!
Holy shite. I knew enthusiasm for the IP was way down, but I honestly had no idea it was this bleak
quote:
Estimates say it cost around $166 million, but we have seen that the totals for “Star Wars” films/shows usually come in higher. Even if the number is correct, industry experts think it will need about $425+ million to break even.
It could break even and make some money, but I doubt it will hit the totals seen with other Disney “Star Wars” films.
That was the shot, here is the chaser:
quote:Jesus. . .
Why are the estimates low?
People don’t seem all that excited for this movie. If Disney had pushed a Mandalorian film at the height of the show’s popularity, it likely would have done well, but many checked out after the last season, and many feel this will be a theatrical version of another season. Many will likely wait until it moves to Disney+, where they can watch it like a regular season release.
Other films like “Masters of the Universe” and “Toy Story 5” are releasing within a month of “The Mandalorian and Grogu” as well.
A recent Fandango survey of the 10 Summer Must-See Movies of 2026 doesn’t even include the “Star Wars” film.
5,000 people surveyed chose these movies as their top 10 for Summer 2026.
1. Toy Story 5 (Disney)
2. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (Sony Pictures/Marvel)
3. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (Disney/20th Century Studios)
4. The Odyssey (Universal)
5. Scary Movie (2026) (Paramount)
6. Moana (2026) (Disney)
7. Minions & Monsters (Universal)
8. Mortal Kombat II (Warner)
9. Supergirl (Warner)
10. Insidious: The Bleeding World (Sony/Blumhouse)
This does not bode well for “The Mandalorian and Grogu”.
12
Posted on 4/13/26 at 8:25 pm to Roaad
quote:
But even at 85 domestic. . .for a Star Wars film!
The movies haven't been good and it's vocal loser fanbase have made it even lamer.
Posted on 4/13/26 at 8:29 pm to Roaad
People who don't have Disney+ and never saw the show aren't gonna want to see the movie.
Posted on 4/13/26 at 8:30 pm to Roaad
quote:
As of April, 2026, estimates put the film’s domestic opening at $70-$85 million.
That's a lot better than I expected
Posted on 4/13/26 at 8:32 pm to saintsfan22
quote:Glad you said this, perfect object lesson
vocal loser fanbase
I think this is the attitude Disney took
And that is why they are looking at projections of 70 million
You make movies for the fans, or you risk losing them.
Star Trek is dealing with the same shite right now.
You can call the fanbase vocal losers, but they are the reason the Star Wars IP exists
Posted on 4/13/26 at 8:32 pm to RLDSC FAN
quote:That top 10 list has to be a gut punch, man
That's a lot better than I expected
That is shocking, actually
This post was edited on 4/13/26 at 8:34 pm
Posted on 4/13/26 at 8:34 pm to Roaad
Doomsday not being on that list is significantly more surprising to me, and problematic for Disney
Posted on 4/13/26 at 8:37 pm to CP3forMVP
quote:It is for Summer films
Doomsday not being on that list
Doomsday is a Christmas release
Posted on 4/13/26 at 8:51 pm to Roaad
quote:
It is for Summer films Doomsday is a Christmas release
The word Summer should have clued me in lol
Posted on 4/13/26 at 8:52 pm to Roaad
I don't know a single person that's excited for this movie. Maybe parents looking for something to take their young kids to will take them to see "baby yoda".
Posted on 4/13/26 at 8:53 pm to The Pirate King
quote:Even that is on life support
"baby yoda".
Nobody is buying that merch anymore, and even when they were it was middle aged wine moms
This post was edited on 4/13/26 at 8:54 pm
Posted on 4/13/26 at 9:48 pm to Roaad
Probably should have done the movie after The Mandalorian Season 2. 
Posted on 4/13/26 at 10:01 pm to Roaad
quote:
and even when they were it was middle aged wine moms
Hey now, my daughter gave me one for Christmas...year before last.
Sits on my desk/station now.
As for this movie, I didn't even know it was out.
Posted on 4/13/26 at 10:02 pm to DMAN1968
quote:end of May, I think. This is the tracking for it
As for this movie, I didn't even know it was out.
Could come in higher or lower
Posted on 4/13/26 at 10:05 pm to Roaad
quote:
end of May, I think. This is the tracking for it
Could come in higher or lower
Well no shite
Posted on 4/13/26 at 10:21 pm to Uncommon Idea
Loved the first two seasons. Show kind of ended with me with Luke’s appearance. Just couldn’t top that.
This movie is 5 years too late.
This movie is 5 years too late.
Posted on 4/13/26 at 10:26 pm to Brosef Stalin
quote:
People who don't have Disney+ and never saw the show aren't gonna want to see the movie.
Will the Disney+ users get off the couch to watch this movie?
Posted on 4/13/26 at 10:34 pm to Uncommon Idea
quote:
Probably should have done the movie after The Mandalorian Season 2.
Probably. Another way to go would have been to make a good season 3 that could have led into the film.
Posted on 4/13/26 at 10:40 pm to Roaad
quote:
People don’t seem all that excited for this movie. If Disney had pushed a Mandalorian film at the height of the show’s popularity, it likely would have done well, but many checked out after the last season.
This is where I'm at. On top of the final season being completely forgettable and then waiting years afterwards for this movie to come out, the marketing and education to the casuals has been absolutely dreadful for this movie.
I'm generally curious how many "normal" star wars fans (i.e. people who have seen all the main movies but aren't keeping up with all the extra lore that's been created around it) actually know the name of Pedro Pascal's character.
Posted on 4/14/26 at 1:55 am to Roaad
The Mandalorian season 1 was great. Season 2 was decent. Then they fired Gina, Pedro decided he only wanted to do voice over work, and then season 3 absolutely sucked arse.
All Star Wars projects Disney has done have been a huge middle finger to the core fans. I have no interest in this movie. The SB trailer did nothing to persuade me to go see this in the theatre.
All Star Wars projects Disney has done have been a huge middle finger to the core fans. I have no interest in this movie. The SB trailer did nothing to persuade me to go see this in the theatre.
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