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How much do you anticipate oil company stocks will drop when the Iran issue is over?
Posted on 3/27/26 at 9:18 am
Posted on 3/27/26 at 9:18 am
My oil stocks have more than made up for my loses in the S&P. When this is over the S&P will recover and I expect the oil related stocks to drop. My hope is the oil stocks will keep 30% or so of their gain, but I’m probably way too optimistic.
9
Posted on 3/27/26 at 9:22 am to Ramblin Wreck
Probably back to where they were before the Iran action started.
I think WTI was around $60 then.
The after-action oil price is likely already somewhat factored in to the stock prices.
I think WTI was around $60 then.
The after-action oil price is likely already somewhat factored in to the stock prices.
Posted on 3/27/26 at 9:31 am to Ramblin Wreck
Refiners and companies involved in Venezuela won't drop as much as others. VLO and CVX are beneficiaries of Venezuela opening back up for business.
Posted on 3/27/26 at 11:01 am to Ramblin Wreck
I don't know but I bought VGENX when all this was coming to a head
Posted on 3/27/26 at 11:19 am to Ramblin Wreck
I don’t know but I look like a genius locking in my heating oil price last summer at $2.64/gallon. Price today is $5.19. Adds up when you are getting over 300 gallons per deliver
Posted on 3/27/26 at 2:20 pm to Ramblin Wreck
Congratulations on your portfolio diversification doing work!
Posted on 3/27/26 at 5:47 pm to Ramblin Wreck
Depends on the estimate on how long it takes to the repair the damages when it over
Posted on 3/28/26 at 8:19 am to Ramblin Wreck
There is more at play than just shipping disruptions.
There is still the "Russia" thing going on. Infrastructure damage in Russia, infrastructure damage in the middle east, US shale production having peaked, and OPEC lying about their actual production capabilities over the years. And whatever happens in Iran, someone will continue to threaten the strait of Hormuz.
JMO, but oil isn't going back to $55-60. I think $80-90 is the new floor . That's healthy for producers and refiners, and it's still "cheap" for consumers historically (especially inflation adjusted). At $55-60 there is a lack of capital investment in new projects, and wars or no wars the price would have bounced up anyway.
There is still the "Russia" thing going on. Infrastructure damage in Russia, infrastructure damage in the middle east, US shale production having peaked, and OPEC lying about their actual production capabilities over the years. And whatever happens in Iran, someone will continue to threaten the strait of Hormuz.
JMO, but oil isn't going back to $55-60. I think $80-90 is the new floor . That's healthy for producers and refiners, and it's still "cheap" for consumers historically (especially inflation adjusted). At $55-60 there is a lack of capital investment in new projects, and wars or no wars the price would have bounced up anyway.
Posted on 3/28/26 at 9:20 am to Ramblin Wreck
Yep. Portfolio still up about 3% thanks to O&G and utilities. Went heavy in O&G last spring with $MTDR, $MUR, $VLO. I feel like when Iran wrapped up here in a few weeks, prices will fall back into the $60 range. Trump will get gas prices down ASAP to keep inflation down and get us some rate cuts later. I'm betting on one before the midterms and one or two after.
I'm not being greedy, I'm slowly taking profits in my energy stocks and building up cash or slowly buying on some dips. I will start buying SMTDR again under $50. Hopefully under $45. I haven't decided on VLO due to their Venezuela holdings but I'm up 140% since last April. Can't help but sale once it goes long term if everything else is in the shitter.
I think the economy will pick up in second half of the year and the market ends up at least 10% from Jan 1 levels as the we get peace in the middle east, projects kick off and get rolling here, Trump tax cuts start making their way into the markets, and we get some rate cuts.
I'm not being greedy, I'm slowly taking profits in my energy stocks and building up cash or slowly buying on some dips. I will start buying SMTDR again under $50. Hopefully under $45. I haven't decided on VLO due to their Venezuela holdings but I'm up 140% since last April. Can't help but sale once it goes long term if everything else is in the shitter.
I think the economy will pick up in second half of the year and the market ends up at least 10% from Jan 1 levels as the we get peace in the middle east, projects kick off and get rolling here, Trump tax cuts start making their way into the markets, and we get some rate cuts.
Posted on 3/28/26 at 1:12 pm to Ramblin Wreck
I’ve been wanting to pull the trigger on all my XOM stock for months but every time I go to do it it jumps another $3 or $4 a share. At over $170 I think I should since it’s roughly half my 401K.
Posted on 3/30/26 at 1:37 am to SmackoverHawg
quote:
prices will fall back into the $60 range. Trump will get gas prices down ASAP to keep inflation down and get us some rate cuts later. I'm betting on one before the midterms and one or two after.
Like I stated in the other thread, that isn’t happening. The supply glut was grossly overstated prior to the Iran mess and it’s going to be even worse coming out of it. Most of the levers that were (are) being used to tamp down prices are either pie in the sky numbers (OPEC has been “increasing” quotas for months….however the one small detail they forget to mention is those numbers have no basis in reality as they can’t produce that much) or outright lies like Trump continues to post.
Also, do you think the energy infrastructure that has been knocked off line in the Middle East can just turned back on with a flip of a switch?
quote:
I think the economy will pick up in second half of the year and the market ends up at least 10% from Jan 1 levels as the we get peace in the middle east, projects kick off and get rolling here, Trump tax cuts start making their way into the markets, and we get some rate cuts.
You are going to be sorely disappointed.
Outside of a global recession, you’re not seeing below $70 for awhile..
I don’t think oil companies drop all that much at the end of this mess, but I’ll gladly take any discount to accumulate more.
This post was edited on 3/30/26 at 8:45 am
Posted on 3/30/26 at 9:10 am to TJG210
quote:
You are going to be sorely disappointed.
Outside of a global recession, you’re not seeing below $70 for awhile..
I don’t think oil companies drop all that much at the end of this mess, but I’ll gladly take any discount to accumulate more.
Maybe. If I can get most of my shares back at a nice discount from sell price, I'll be happy. I still have most of my shares but wanted to free up cash for a market dive. I just didn't want to be greedy like I was in 2022 and didn't have the cash I wanted to have when the market took a shite. I didn't stick to the plan then and it cost me. Not to mention, my portfolio has gotten very out of balance due to energy rebounded so well from last years lows. Oil in the $70's doesn't cripple the economy.
I still have plenty. Has my portfolio near even, but I'll admit that I'd be up a nice chunk if I would've waited, but when Trump initially stated 4-5 weeks, I decided then that I would starts selling some with each rally week to week.
Posted on 3/31/26 at 10:14 am to BOSCEAUX
quote:
I’ve been wanting to pull the trigger on all my XOM stock for months but every time I go to do it it jumps another $3 or $4 a share. At over $170 I think I should since it’s roughly half my 401K.
I only had a little bit but sold it yesterday given it's at an all time high. I think I was up ~500%.
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