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Did NIL kill the March Cinderella in the NCAA Tournament?
Posted on 3/23/26 at 9:22 am
Posted on 3/23/26 at 9:22 am
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Did NIL kill the March Cinderella in the NCAA Tournament?
Drew Smith March 21, 2026 Trending 0 Comments
On Friday, every single favorite on the board in the NCAA Tournament won OUTRIGHT. It also marked the second straight year where every team seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA Tournament went winless in the first round.
That has now happened back to back for the first time since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. Look at the chart. From 2008 through 2024, only two years produced zero upsets from the 13 through 16 seeds.
We just did it twice in a row. 2025 and 2026 are both red and while it’s only two years, it’s also not a blip. We’re trending towards…well, a trend, and I don’t like it all.
Here’s what used to happen in the NCAA Tournament:
In 2012 alone, Lehigh, Norfolk State, and Ohio all won first round games.
In 2013 it was FGCU, Harvard, and La Salle.
In 2016 it was Middle Tennessee, Stephen F. Austin, and Hawaii.
2018 gave us UMBC over Virginia, the only 16 over 1 in tournament history.
In 2021 Oral Roberts, Abilene Christian, Ohio, and North Texas all won.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. Did NIL kill the March Cinderella in the NCAA Tournament?
Drew Smith March 21, 2026 Trending 0 Comments
On Friday, every single favorite on the board in the NCAA Tournament won OUTRIGHT. It also marked the second straight year where every team seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA Tournament went winless in the first round.
That has now happened back to back for the first time since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. Look at the chart. From 2008 through 2024, only two years produced zero upsets from the 13 through 16 seeds.
We just did it twice in a row. 2025 and 2026 are both red and while it’s only two years, it’s also not a blip. We’re trending towards…well, a trend, and I don’t like it all.
Here’s what used to happen in the NCAA Tournament:
In 2012 alone, Lehigh, Norfolk State, and Ohio all won first round games.
In 2013 it was FGCU, Harvard, and La Salle.
In 2016 it was Middle Tennessee, Stephen F. Austin, and Hawaii.
2018 gave us UMBC over Virginia, the only 16 over 1 in tournament history.
In 2021 Oral Roberts, Abilene Christian, Ohio, and North Texas all won.
28
Posted on 3/23/26 at 9:34 am to RelicBatches86
Yes. Teams with the most money have the best players and the Mid Major with 4 guys that are 3 year starts don't exist. They transfer to power programs.
Posted on 3/23/26 at 9:38 am to RelicBatches86
Not killed but it feels like you will see a lot less. Kept having to remind myself that high point was a 12 seed and not like a 14.
This post was edited on 3/23/26 at 9:39 am
Posted on 3/23/26 at 9:40 am to S
eventually they will have separate tournaments with the way things are trending
Posted on 3/23/26 at 9:41 am to RelicBatches86
Jay Bilas wanted this!
Posted on 3/23/26 at 9:45 am to RelicBatches86
TV and social media killed the Cinderella
Kids who can play are being found via social media and travel ball and no longer falling back on low level offers. TV airing every game allows major teams to scout small teams
Kids who can play are being found via social media and travel ball and no longer falling back on low level offers. TV airing every game allows major teams to scout small teams
Posted on 3/23/26 at 9:45 am to RelicBatches86
I hope so
Posted on 3/23/26 at 9:46 am to boston vol
quote:
I hope so
Why?
Posted on 3/23/26 at 9:49 am to RelicBatches86
Well if you log on "X" you'll see Texas fans claiming they are cinderella.
Because nothing screams cinderella like an underachieving athletic program with a 300 million dollar budget
Because nothing screams cinderella like an underachieving athletic program with a 300 million dollar budget
Posted on 3/23/26 at 9:54 am to Man4others
quote:
Kids who can play are being found via social media and travel ball and no longer falling back on low level offers. TV airing every game allows major teams to scout small teams
The best players deserve to be on the biggest stages… my advice to Tulane and UNO, Nicholls and Southeastern fans is to start rooting for LSU… they’re the flag carriers for LA
Posted on 3/23/26 at 9:55 am to RelicBatches86
Not NIL.
The transfer rules allowed this
Change it to where you can transfer once and then you have to sit a year and things will change.
Most of the cinderellas were veteran teams beating a bunch of 4 and 5 star freshmen.
Now the good vets will get plucked and paid.
Wonder if Max Makinnon and Marquel Sutton are glad they took money from LSU to go 3-15 instead of maybe helping a cinderella go on a run
The transfer rules allowed this
Change it to where you can transfer once and then you have to sit a year and things will change.
Most of the cinderellas were veteran teams beating a bunch of 4 and 5 star freshmen.
Now the good vets will get plucked and paid.
Wonder if Max Makinnon and Marquel Sutton are glad they took money from LSU to go 3-15 instead of maybe helping a cinderella go on a run
Posted on 3/23/26 at 9:58 am to RelicBatches86
I watched a 9 seed knock off a 1 seed yesterday.
That felt pretty cindarella.
That felt pretty cindarella.
Posted on 3/23/26 at 10:04 am to RelicBatches86
It ebbs and flows. The one and done era created more upsets, NIL is reducing that trend.
The Tourney expanded in ‘85 to 64 teams. The first 25 years of that format saw four 15 over 2 upsets. In the 15 years since, there have been seven, and FGCU went to the Sweet 16 and St Peter’s to the Elite 8. You also went decades before you saw a 16/1 upset, and then another one followed a few years later.
I don’t think Cinderella is dead, it’s just reverting back to being more of a rarity.
The Tourney expanded in ‘85 to 64 teams. The first 25 years of that format saw four 15 over 2 upsets. In the 15 years since, there have been seven, and FGCU went to the Sweet 16 and St Peter’s to the Elite 8. You also went decades before you saw a 16/1 upset, and then another one followed a few years later.
I don’t think Cinderella is dead, it’s just reverting back to being more of a rarity.
Posted on 3/23/26 at 10:11 am to Man4others
quote:
TV and social media killed the Cinderella
Kids who can play are being found via social media and travel ball and no longer falling back on low level offers. TV airing every game allows major teams to scout small teams
No offense, but this has little to do with it. No major schools are finding diamond in the rough US kids on social media or in lower level travel ball. It's unlimited transfers, supported by NIL. Leads to:
1) These unknown kids you are talking about do go to smaller schools, but now when they excel they leave after a year or two which hurts the experience and chemistry that often drive mid-major teams that do well.
2) Highly recruited major school transfers to mid-majors where they mature/up their game now transfer right back to other major schools as good player which helps the major schools and hurt the mid-majors.
Posted on 3/23/26 at 10:17 am to RelicBatches86
the cinderella's haven't really even been close games this year...besides siena i guess
Posted on 3/23/26 at 10:22 am to RelicBatches86
Yes, power teams grab decent guys from mid majors for 500k plus just for depth.
Posted on 3/23/26 at 10:39 am to RelicBatches86
Possible or some of the would be 13s in the past were 12s
Posted on 3/23/26 at 11:41 am to msutiger
quote:It all depends on your concept of a cinderella...
Well if you log on "X" you'll see Texas fans claiming they are cinderella.
Because nothing screams cinderella like an underachieving athletic program with a 300 million dollar budget
Texas, like you said, has a huge athletic program.
But they were in the play-in round. So technically that fits.
Or, the team they beat- Gonzaga. They have an undergrad enrollment of under 6k, so smaller than some Texas high schools. You could call them cinderella for that, if you disqualify Texas on the basis of their AD. But are they? Since 2014, they've been lower than a 4 seed only twice.
Posted on 3/23/26 at 11:45 am to RelicBatches86
The top teams are littered with upper class transfers from mid majors.
The portal/transfer rules have killed the Cinderella upset.
The portal/transfer rules have killed the Cinderella upset.
Posted on 3/23/26 at 12:05 pm to WaydownSouth
quote:
Not NIL.
The transfer rules allowed this
Change it to where you can transfer once and then you have to sit a year and things will change.
Most of the cinderellas were veteran teams beating a bunch of 4 and 5 star freshmen.
Now the good vets will get plucked and paid.
Nailed it
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