This Operation Will Not Work

This whole strategy of trying to create the conditions for the people to 'rise up' and take control isnt going to work. The hope is that the IRGC will be so weakened from the air and sea that the regular military (The Artesh), viewed as the ' people's army' and having a nationalist ideology rather than a religious one , will then be able to overwhelm them. Well, there's a few problems with this...

1) its no guarantee that the Artesh will revolt. For years the clerics have been surveilling and indoctrining the forces with islamist ideology...maybe they dont want to side with israel and the US, but yet the success of the entire operation rides entirely on them being able to do the dirty work on the ground. This was not a smart strategy by america/israel to leave it up to this group.

2) the Artesh does not have the weaponry and training to take down the IRGC who have been better funded for decades and have the majority of battle experience.

3) and the most important factor why this strategy will fail...you cant just defeat the IRGC from the air alone. Just like in Gaza, they have a huge network of underground tunnels where they store supplies and weapons. As soon as the Artesh is asked to carry out any ground operation, this is when the problems will start.

And guess what...american ground troops will then be asked to enter and save the operation eventually as I have predicted since day 1.

This was a bad idea and is very likely to backfire