Passing up an open attempt at the rim for a 3 point shot

If you hit a wide open uncontested 3 at better than a 50% rate, it's a better shot.

Idk but whenever I see topics liek this it makes me think of Ben Simmons pussing out against the hawks during that '21 playoff run. Simmons has a clear layup/dunk right under the basket, but sees the ferocious and intimidating trae young barreling down so he passes it off lol.

LINK

It's actually probably 66.6%, I was just funning earlier.

There was a lot of stupidity in that game last night. Kuminga is going to be a stud for Atlanta though.

The math doesn’t exist because it’s a stupid play. Most of our “analytics” experts and cultist have never been on a court in their lives past bitty ball.

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The math doesn’t exist because it’s a stupid play. Most of our “analytics” experts and cultist have never been on a court in their lives past bitty ball.

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Bama is super analytics driven and the consensus I understood was:
1) open close look
2) open exterior look
3) contested dribble drive to draw foul
4) quality perimeter look

The only shots you really want to avoid statistically unless you’re Kobe are the midrange looks particularly if it isn’t clean.

Zero reason to pass on a finish at the rim unless you’re in an end of game scenario or trying to run clock.

Best open shot is the best shot. You’ll hear older coaches say “the ball has energy” which just means if you move the ball correctly you’ll be as open as possible, allowing you to relax and raising your shot percentage regardless of where you are.

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The math doesn’t exist

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The math exists. Just have to define the variables. If the hit rate for the at the rim shot is 80%, this yields 1.6 points per shot. To equal that, the player shooting the 3 would have to shoot at a 53.3% rate, for the type of shot you'd get in that scenario (which would probably be a less contested than normal 3, so their hit rate should be higher than their normal average).

If we want to say that at the rim shot hits at a 90% success rate, then the 3 pt shot would need to be hit at over 60%.

So, obviously it would all depend on the players. Rarely is it going to make sense, but there definitely are NBA players that could hit at that rate for roughly uncontested shots. Generally though, it wouldn't be worth giving up the 2 points in the long run.

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Say Kuminga doesn't miss this dunk 95 percent of the time, that addes up to 190 points per 100 possessions.

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That’s not a 95% look… sometimes he gets fouled and misses free throws. Sometimes it’s an And 1. Sometimes he gets swatted

Unless you need a 3, a 100% dunk is the best shot to attempt in basketball