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Red State - Blue State fertility and domestic migration rates

Posted on 2/3/26 at 8:21 am
Posted by Ramblin Wreck
Member since Aug 2011
3963 posts
Posted on 2/3/26 at 8:21 am
States with the highest total fertility rates (2023)
1 South Dakota
2 Nebraska
3 North Dakota
4 Alaska
5 Louisiana
6 lowa
7 Kansas
8 Texas
9 Kentucky
10 Utah

States with the lowest total fertility rates (2023)
41 Illinois
42 Washington
43 California
44 Colorado
45 Maine
46 Massachusetts
47 New Hampshire
48 Oregon
49 Rhode Island
50 Vermont

Fertility Rates article

Top 10 States for Net Domestic Migration Gains (July 2024–July 2025):

1. North Carolina
2. Texas
3. South Carolina
4. Tennessee
5. Florida
6. Arizona
7. Alabama
8. Georgia
9. Idaho
10. Utah

Bottom 10 - all are losing domestic population

41. Pennsylvania
42. Hawaii
43. Michigan
44. Maryland
45. Louisiana
46. Massachusetts
47. New Jersey
48. Illinois
49. New York
50. California
Posted by olgoi khorkhoi
priapism survivor
Member since May 2011
16563 posts
Posted on 2/3/26 at 8:24 am to
Reproduction rates in Texas and Louisiana will eventually turn them blue
Posted by rob0710
LA
Member since Oct 2004
1051 posts
Posted on 2/3/26 at 8:24 am to
Problem with Louisiana is the ones who are having kids probably shouldn't be and the ones who should be are leaving for greener pastures.
Posted by Ingeniero
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2013
22553 posts
Posted on 2/3/26 at 8:25 am to
Fertility and religiosity are going to be a massive issue for Dems in the future. All the data we have shows that conservative, religious people reproduce at a much higher rate than liberal, nonreligious people. We have research that political ideology is highly heritable too. The left is quite literally being bred out.
Posted by idlewatcher
Planet Arium
Member since Jan 2012
94362 posts
Posted on 2/3/26 at 8:27 am to
quote:

2. Texas



Very curious to know if the census were to take place post-ICE raids, if Harris County, TX will still be majority hispanic. It's still rather close +/- a few % points.

Between self-deports and the raids, you have an extremely afraid hispanic population.
Posted by tide06
Member since Oct 2011
21633 posts
Posted on 2/3/26 at 8:28 am to
Red America and Blue America are two separate nations attempting to coexist within the same government and borders.

Diametrically opposed cultures, values, goals and agendas... it cant last.
Posted by Jimbeaux
Member since Sep 2003
21511 posts
Posted on 2/3/26 at 9:04 am to
What’s missing from your summary of the article is the actual rates.

Even the top state, South Dakota, is just below replacement, at 2.01, and Louisiana is at 1.83. Generally, the replacement rate is 2.1 to account for child mortality.

This is an interesting breakdown of Louisiana births by household income:

Household Income Level % of Births (Weighted)

$16,000 or less ~17.1%

$16,001 – $20,000 ~8.8%

$20,001 – $24,000 ~6.6%

$24,001 – $28,000 ~6.1%

$28,001 – $32,000 ~8.1%

$32,001 – $40,000 ~5.3%

$40,001 – $48,000 ~6.6%

$48,001 – $57,000 ~3.4%

$57,001 – $60,000 ~3.5%

$60,001 – $73,000 ~3.4%

$73,001 – $85,000 ~5.9%

$85,001 or more ~25.1%

Important takeaways? Yes, the poor folks are making more babies (under $48,000 ~ 57%) , but not exceedingly so.

It’s a pretty even distribution with the top income making the most babies and the poorest the second most.


Posted by Evolved Simian
Bushwood Country Club
Member since Sep 2010
23196 posts
Posted on 2/3/26 at 9:43 am to
quote:

The left is quite literally being bred out.


You're forgetting black people.
Posted by olgoi khorkhoi
priapism survivor
Member since May 2011
16563 posts
Posted on 2/4/26 at 6:35 am to
quote:

The left is quite literally being bred out.




Don't hold your breath. Leftists are bred in schools, not in thw womb. Both right-leaning parents work and outsource much of the raising of their children to marxist teachers unions.
Posted by mule74
Watersound Beach
Member since Nov 2004
12632 posts
Posted on 2/4/26 at 7:15 am to
quote:

Important takeaways? Yes, the poor folks are making more babies (under $48,000 ~ 57%) , but not exceedingly so. It’s a pretty even distribution with the top income making the most babies and the poorest the second most.


I don’t think that chart says what you think it does.

According to the breakdown, around 60% of the people having babies are making less than $57,000 a year. Around 40% of making less than $28,000 a year.

In 2026 America, those numbers mean you are poor.
Posted by Bayou
Boudin, LA
Member since Feb 2005
42114 posts
Posted on 2/4/26 at 7:18 am to
quote:

Problem with Louisiana is the ones who are having kids probably shouldn't be and the ones who should be are leaving for greener pastures.

Nailed it
Posted by TigerBaitOohHaHa
Member since Jan 2023
1863 posts
Posted on 2/4/26 at 7:22 am to
quote:

Very curious to know if the census were to take place post-ICE raids, if Harris County, TX will still be majority hispanic.


yeah, 45% of Harris County is Hispanic. Migration Policy Institute puts illegal immigrants at 600,000 in the county. I call BS as I think there are more.

I think raids here have been minimal. a few hundred each month. I had to look that up, there hasn't been anything on the local news that I've seen.
Posted by udtiger
Over your left shoulder
Member since Nov 2006
113729 posts
Posted on 2/4/26 at 7:30 am to
quote:

Reproduction rates in Texas and Louisiana will eventually turn them blue


People can downvote this all they want but it doesnt make it less true.
Posted by Penrod
Member since Jan 2011
53536 posts
Posted on 2/4/26 at 7:40 am to
quote:

Reproduction rates in Texas and Louisiana will eventually turn them blue

36% of live births in Louisiana are black. About 32% of the population is black. When you consider mortality rates, 36% is probably what is necessary to keep the population at 32% without immigration/emigration.

Other factors: White people are probably leaving the state in greater numbers, and Latinos are entering in greater numbers.
Posted by captainFid
Never apologize to barbarism
Member since Dec 2014
9703 posts
Posted on 2/4/26 at 7:47 am to
Careful, as noted before, it's not the State you need to be concerned with, it the inhabitants.

This crude image was posted in yesterdays thread showing the disparity...

>



If you look further, you'll see Simoleans and (Muslims in general) eclipsing both.


Posted by winkchance
St. George, LA
Member since Jul 2016
6396 posts
Posted on 2/4/26 at 8:32 am to
quote:


Reproduction rates in Texas and Louisiana will eventually turn them blue


No, more like the douchebags from blue states - who created these sh!tholes
will move to red states to recreate sh!tholes.

Thys should be forced to sit out elections for 10 years so they can learn how not to create sh!tholes.
Posted by member12
Bob's Country Bunker
Member since May 2008
33113 posts
Posted on 2/4/26 at 11:34 am to
There are 4 dads in my social group whose families contain 5+ kids. All of us have at least 2 kids. South Louisiana.

One of them has 7 kids - they have one of those Chevrolet Express conversion things to get around. Looks like a fancy airport shuttle.

But I also know 2 guys my age that have zero kids and have no interest in having kids.

This post was edited on 2/4/26 at 11:36 am
Posted by Jimbeaux
Member since Sep 2003
21511 posts
Posted on 2/6/26 at 8:50 pm to
Did you miss it when I said:

quote:

Yes, the poor folks are making more babies
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