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Started By
Message
ADP Report: U.S. Lost 32,000 Jobs in September
Posted on 10/1/25 at 8:10 am
Posted on 10/1/25 at 8:10 am
quote:
The U.S. shed 32,000 private-sector jobs in September, payroll processing giant ADP said on Wednesday.
That is down from a revised loss of 3,000 in August. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected an increase of 45,000.
ADP’s report doesn’t include government workers, but economists are giving it a closer look this month. That is because the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly jobs report, which was scheduled to come out this Friday, may get delayed by the government shutdown.
The surprise job loss in September is the latest sign that the labor market is weakening. Job growth has slowed to a trickle this year even as the unemployment rate has held mostly steady. The Federal Reserve last month lowered short-term interest rates by a quarter percentage point and signaled more cuts are likely, citing weak hiring. The labor market “is a little bit tenuous right now,” said Aditya Bhave, an economist at Bank of America.
The leisure and hospitality sector shed 19,000 jobs last month, the largest decline among major sectors, according to ADP. Education and health services were bright spots, with a collective gain of 33,000 jobs.
quote:
ADP’s report is based on data from more than 26 million workers whose employers use ADP to manage payrolls. That is a large sample of U.S. private-sector employment, which includes about 136 million workers. ADP’s monthly numbers sometimes diverge widely from BLS figures, which are based on a broader survey of employers.
quote:
Economists polled by the Journal had expected the BLS September jobs report to show a gain of 51,000 private sector and government workers.
LINK
Posted on 10/1/25 at 8:13 am to ragincajun03
Just need more tariffs and big beautiful bills
Posted on 10/1/25 at 8:15 am to ragincajun03
quote:
The leisure and hospitality sector shed 19,000 jobs last month
Wouldn't that be seasonal employees with summer ending?
Posted on 10/1/25 at 8:17 am to NIH
quote:
Just need more tariffs and big beautiful bills
Just need more Gubment DEI gravy and Woke bumper sticker platitudes.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 8:19 am to ragincajun03
They always count part time jobs for this.
So it’s doubtful it’s really all that bad
So it’s doubtful it’s really all that bad
Posted on 10/1/25 at 8:25 am to NIH
quote:
Just need more tariffs and big beautiful bills
Nobody falling for this BS anymore
Get on the train or step aside
Posted on 10/1/25 at 8:29 am to ragincajun03
Any reason why the weak labor market isn’t showing up in jobless claims data?
Anyway, ADP isn’t exactly reliable. Their numbers tend to differ dramatically from govt figures released 2 days later.
Anyway, ADP isn’t exactly reliable. Their numbers tend to differ dramatically from govt figures released 2 days later.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 8:30 am to lsusteve1
quote:
Get on the train or step aside
There is no room for questioning or dissent from dear leader.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 8:31 am to ragincajun03
quote:Deportations
The leisure and hospitality sector shed 19,000 jobs last month
Posted on 10/1/25 at 8:39 am to ell_13
I definitely think the closed southern border + deportations are muddying the numbers a bit. Here’s why:
1) jobless claims data.
Jobless claims fell by most in 4 years and are hovering around where they have been the last few years: CNBC
2) income growth
During weak labor markets, average weekly earnings tend to fall. We aren’t seeing that (yet).
3) UE rate
The UE rate is 4.2%, which is regarded by economists as full employment
My hunch is that, without 100,000+ illegals crossing the border every month and getting McJobs, it puts a blanket over the national labor data.
I could be wrong, of course.
1) jobless claims data.
Jobless claims fell by most in 4 years and are hovering around where they have been the last few years: CNBC
2) income growth
During weak labor markets, average weekly earnings tend to fall. We aren’t seeing that (yet).
3) UE rate
The UE rate is 4.2%, which is regarded by economists as full employment
My hunch is that, without 100,000+ illegals crossing the border every month and getting McJobs, it puts a blanket over the national labor data.
I could be wrong, of course.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 8:45 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:The government figures are the standard for reliability?
Anyway, ADP isn’t exactly reliable. Their numbers tend to differ dramatically from govt figures released 2 days later.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 8:55 am to NIH
We are a ways before seeing what that bill does. Economic lag is a thing
Posted on 10/1/25 at 9:15 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Any reason why the weak labor market isn’t showing up in jobless claims data?
Baby Boomers are retiring (or dying) at rates greater than job creation. Retirees and dead people don't count against unemployment numbers.
I'm no kind of economist but I suspect this will be the new normal moving forward. Job growth remains tepid due to automation, H1Bs, etc. but Boomers fall off the payrolls alleviating pressure.
The real issue is wage stagnation, or wage polarization. Job stability doesn't provide socioeconomic benefits if a huge segment of the workforce is struggling to live paycheck to paycheck while a small wealthy group focuses on ratf*cking the system to consolidate wealth, power and control amongst themselves.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 9:52 am to ragincajun03
Boomers and illegals leaving the job market in droves. Automation and efficiency measures being implemented to squeeze current employees during economic uncertainty. Part time summer work ending.
Jobless claims are down, employment is full. Holding steady.
Jobless claims are down, employment is full. Holding steady.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 10:00 am to ragincajun03
Don't worry guys, all those Doge savings should be kicking in any day now
Posted on 10/1/25 at 10:11 am to migui8618
quote:
Wouldn't that be seasonal employees with summer ending?
Shhhh... the liberals don't understand this.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 10:12 am to RLDSC FAN
quote:
Don't worry guys, all those Doge savings should be kicking in any day now
Explain intelligently, how government waste helps the private economy.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 10:13 am to AUFANATL
quote:
Job stability doesn't provide socioeconomic benefits if a huge segment of the workforce is struggling to live paycheck to paycheck while a small wealthy group focuses on ratf*cking the system to consolidate wealth, power and control amongst themselves.
So you believe that wealth is finite. One can not be rich without another becoming poor, is that your rationale?
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