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What's the biggest blocker on oil prices dropping?

Posted on 9/3/25 at 3:12 pm
Posted by roll to victory
Hoover, AL
Member since Aug 2018
1541 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 3:12 pm
Is it the Keystone XL pipeline not operational? What's the status from the Trump admin i've not heard anything new in a while!

If the US goes back to energy independence, Buyden f*cked us but that pipeline being operational is a game changer, am i right?
This post was edited on 9/3/25 at 3:29 pm
Posted by KiwiHead
Auckland, NZ
Member since Jul 2014
35497 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 3:13 pm to
Oil companies

OPEC
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
133419 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 3:14 pm to
It's interesting that you start this thread on a day when crude prices dropped over -2.5%.
Posted by ragincajun03
Member since Nov 2007
27185 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 3:17 pm to
Keystone is operational. Has been for a while.

Keystone XL was cancelled by the Biden Administration, and TC Energy cut their losses after years and years. They’re not bringing it back, and quite frankly, other avenues have taken its place.

Oil prices are in the 60s. OPEC+ could open the taps more. Drilling is slowing onshore and offshore. Oil prices in the 40s would have rigs stacked along I-20 in West TX.
Posted by back9Tiger
Island Coconut Salesman
Member since Nov 2005
17513 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 3:22 pm to
Oil prices are right in line right now. If you are asking why gas prices are high, state and federal taxes add a ton per gallon. Look at California prices.

You can't have oil prices are too low because oil companies won't drill as they will lose money.

More E&P companies are focusing on maximizing shareholder returns than pumping money into the drill baby drill.... it is economics.

Posted by The Goon
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Nov 2008
1334 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 3:22 pm to
For onshore wells, it doesn’t make sense to sell at these spot prices. Oil is going into tankers waiting for the price to rise. Oil wells need service if a rod or pump breaks. All service is being delayed reducing oil production levels until prices increase.

Any oil being sold right now is just to maintain cash flow and keep the payroll at a minimum.
Posted by Tridentds
Sugar Land
Member since Aug 2011
23298 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 3:22 pm to
Right now there is a lag between drill baby drill and the Biden policies of the last 4 years. Oil production was at record levels under Biden due to oil investment in big projects before that decrepit frick took office.

While in office they restricted many new developments. Normally those investments in 21, 22, and into 23 would start producing now and supply would come up and might exceed demand. Just the opposite right now... supply is going up slowly year on year in the U.S. Expect a bigger jump in supply starting in late 2026/2027.

This post was edited on 9/3/25 at 3:24 pm
Posted by ragincajun03
Member since Nov 2007
27185 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 3:24 pm to
quote:

Expect a bigger jump in supply starting in late 2026/2027.


Even if oil prices are the same as they are now?
This post was edited on 9/3/25 at 3:25 pm
Posted by omegaman66
greenwell springs
Member since Oct 2007
26240 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 3:24 pm to
WAR
Posted by Swazla
Member since Jul 2016
1772 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 3:38 pm to
Demand
Lack of Refineries.
Global Warming Lying Crazies.

That is all.
Posted by GoblinGuide
Member since Nov 2017
1990 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 3:38 pm to
quote:

Oil companies

OPEC
Posted by roll to victory
Hoover, AL
Member since Aug 2018
1541 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 3:40 pm to
quote:

It's interesting that you start this thread on a day when crude prices dropped over -2.5%.


Oil prices have been steady now for 8 months in the low to mid $60's, typically after Labor day prices always drop to an extent.
Posted by KiwiHead
Auckland, NZ
Member since Jul 2014
35497 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 3:41 pm to
I'd be worried about backwardation because the levels at Cushing are pretty low right now. Speculators are probably selling all they can at the current price possibly signaling an expectation of prices going lower. Make your profit now

Could be that producers are also looking to skirt Oklahoma's ad valorem tax towards end of the year?

Prices heading down are not necessarily good news out in the patch
Posted by Ace Midnight
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
94638 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 4:23 pm to
Probably the "demand" side of "supply and demand".

There's plenty of supply.
Posted by TigerAxeOK
Where I lay my head is home.
Member since Dec 2016
35157 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 4:41 pm to
quote:

Is it the Keystone XL pipeline not operational?

Keystone works. The XL expansion was nixed by Brandon. It certainly would have been a boon, but other avenues have been successfully implemented.

The lobbies will have a lot to do with the rise and fall of costs for a while. There will be some definite growing pains for the extraction and midstream industries if we [rightfully and hopefully] intend to replenish the SPR.
Posted by Penrod
Member since Jan 2011
51627 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 4:51 pm to
quote:

Any oil being sold right now is just to maintain cash flow and keep the payroll at a minimum

This is not true. You think Beacon going to 100,000 BoPD on Shenandoah is just to break even?
Posted by Stonehenge
Wakulla Springs
Member since Dec 2014
2403 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 7:02 pm to
Donnie
Posted by OU Guy
Member since Feb 2022
23741 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 8:32 pm to
oil tankers strong today on the story that OPEC is looking at another production increase ..... i'd say clearly alot of OPEC members need more cash and the bond markets are not going to like that route so they gonna sell more oil & why oil getting smacked lower
Posted by GetmorewithLes
UK Basketball Fan
Member since Jan 2011
22078 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 9:10 pm to
quote:

it the Keystone XL pipeline not operational? What's the status from the Trump admin i've not heard anything new in a while!


Oil producers have learned their lesson in over producing and killing the price. While we consumers love low oil prices the producers get killed by them. When crude prices drop below $70 the small guys get forced out.

Another issue is the Biden Admin sat on oil lease sales for yrs despite being ordered by the court to hold the lease sales. It takes time to mobilize into new fields.
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